Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 2/8/2024
The NBA All-Star break is looming, and some teams have entered the second half of the year strong, while others have begun to dip below expectations. Over the last 2 weeks, a pair of teams have emerged as consistent spread coverers, while another duo has fallen short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams in the NBA, with the highest and lowest scorers.
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The Hot:
Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons find themselves in the ‘hot’ category for the second straight edition, as they have been consistent at covering spreads, going 8-2 in their last 10, despite going 3-7 straight up. The Pistons have been double digit underdogs 7 times in the last month, and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS. There is no relief in sight for the 7-43 Pistons, but they have been able to consistently keep games close, something that has been filling bettors’ pockets. Detroit dealt with serious injuries to start the season, which partially allowed them to set the record tying 28-game losing streak. Now that the starters are back in the lineup, Detroit’s double-digit point spreads have become consistently profitable, and will always be a good look on a nightly basis. Don’t let the big spread and woeful Pistons record sway you from tailing this team in the right spot, as the 25-25 ATS Pistons will continue to put up a fight.
LA Clippers
The Clippers have gone a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, and an even better 8-2 straight up in that span. The Clippers have managed to tame the egos of their quartet of perennial All-Stars, and it has allowed them to roll out the best offense in the league on a nightly basis. Between James Harden and Russell Westbrook’s passing abilities, and Kawhi Leonard’s incredibly consistent 2-way play, the Clippers have shot to the top of the Western Conference. They’ve closed as the favorite in all but one of their last 16 games, but their ability to not only win, but cover spreads, is something that has kept Clippers bettors satisfied all season long. They went a sparkling 6-1 on their recent 7-game road trip. And with a 4-game home stand incoming, they will likely be consistent big favorites for the foreseeable future.
The Cold:
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers season has been derailed, as their MVP Embiid has been ruled out for several weeks, if not longer. The bookies have been unable to accurately judge the 76ers without their big man, causing them to go just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games, with a woeful 3-7 straight up record. Philadelphia has struggled to keep things even remotely competitive, losing 6 of their last 7, with the last 4 coming by double digits. Not only are they getting blown out, but they’re losing at home, against teams not even in the play-in tournament positions. Tyrese Maxey will have a bulk of the offensive workload on his shoulders. And while he was a great co-star for Embiid, he lacks the poise to lead the 76ers in Embiid’s absence. The 76ers future ATS will greatly depend on the lines they are given. In my opinion, the lack of Embiid should be dropping their line by 6-7 points on a nightly basis. However, the bookies have been hesitant to do so. Three straight home losses will give them no choice, and I expect the 76ers to eventually figure things out. However, in nearly any sort of road favorite role, the 76ers are a hard pass until Embiid is back on the court.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics still hold a healthy lead atop the Eastern Conference, but they have looked beatable in recent weeks. They’ve gone a solid 7-3 straight up, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Their offense hasn’t been able to pull away like they had done in the early stages of the season, and a few nail-biting wins weren’t enough to get the cover. From a betting perspective, thanks to the Celtics' perch atop the standings, they will be consistently overvalued down the home stretch of the NBA season. Across their last 5 games, they’ve been favored by an average of 13.8 points. And while they went 4-1, they only went 1-4 ATS. Big favorites like Boston collect lots of public betting. And any time you’re swallowing a boatload of points with the C’s, extreme caution must be used. Boston has proven time and time again they are happy to take home a close victory, leaving spread bettors in the dust.
High Scorers:
LA Lakers
The Lakers have gone Over the posted total in 8 of their last 10 games, waking away with a respectable 6-4 record in the process. Despite the total closing at 227+ in all 10 matchups, the Lakers offense has blown past that mark on a consistent basis. LeBron James and Anthony Davis will always be consistent scorers, but the lack of depth defense for the Lakers has left them vulnerable at the other end. The Lakers high pace of play ensures both teams get plenty of clean looks throughout the game. And as long as they keep winning, the Lakers will not relent from their playstyle. It can be daunting to continue to ride the over as the total ticks closer to the 240 mark, as the bookies are finally figuring the Lakers out. Their total has closed at 240+ in 4 of the last 12 games, after doing so just once this season prior. The Lakers will likely be unable to continue their breakneck pace of play, and as the totals inch higher, the Under will suddenly be a great play on the Lakers.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are in the high scorers column for the wrong reason. They’ve gone Under the points total in just 3 of their last 10, winning just a single game across that span. While the Hornets defense is certainly not good, it hasn’t been quite as bad as stats like these make them sound. The fact of the matter is the lines have been way off. Charlotte plays with nothing to lose and will happily engage in a shootout with anyone in the league. The total has been Over 231 in just 1 of their last 10 games, but the Hornets defense has allowed 123 PPG in recent weeks. LaMelo Ball remains on the sidelines, and there is really no reason for Charlotte to play any of their stars down the home stretch. As long as Charlotte keeps getting sub 230 lines, their poor defense will result in Overs cashing with ease.
Low Scorers:
New York Knicks
The Knicks are making their 3rd straight appearance in the ‘Low Scorers’ category, as their immaculate defense has turned them into legitimate title challengers. They’ve gone Under in 8 of their last 10 games, and 16 of their last 19 contests. The arrival of OG Anunoby has turned the Knicks back into the defensive powerhouse they once were, and they’ve seen themselves shoot up the standings as a result. Ten wins in their last 11 games thanks to lockdown defense will have New York confident they can remain relevant as the season winds down, and there is no reason to waver from these Unders, at nearly any number. They allowed 113 points against the Grizzlies last time out, which was the most points allowed by New York in a month. Injuries to their leading scorers will ensure they continue to stay Under the posted lines and continue to tail this wagon until the wheels fall off.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets solid defense is what won them an NBA championship last season, and they look poised to run it back with a similar squad and mentality. They’ve gone Under the mark in 8 of their last 10, going 7-3 in that span. Nikola Jokic may be on the highlight reels for his insane offensive plays, but the floor general is equally impactful on the defensive end. His partnership with Aaron Gordon ensures there’s nothing easy inside, which has allowed Denver to consistently shut down their opponents. Wins over the Bucks, 76ers, and Celtics will have them confident their defense will hold up in a potential NBA Finals appearance, and the consistency of their defensive unit makes them a solid Under choice on a nightly basis.
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