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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 2/29/2024

by Spencer Toth - 2/29/2024

NBA hot and cold betting teams ATS and Over Under Damian Lillard Milwaukee Bucks

The NBA All-Star Break is in the rearview mirror, and we’ve entered the final 6 weeks of the regular season. Time is running out for the playoff hopefuls to dart up the standings, and certain teams have been living up to expectations, while others have been falling short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, in addition to the consistent Over and Under winners.

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The Hot:

Miami Heat

The Heat have been red hot, posting a 9-1 Against the Spread (ATS) record over the last 3 weeks. They’ve gone an impressive 8-2 straight up in the process and find themselves just a game and a half out of a top 4 seed in the East. Miami seems to reach another gear as the postseason inches closer, highlighted by their NBA Finals run as the 8th seed last season. Jimmy Butler has been able to consistently deliver clutch shots when his team needs it most, and the Heat will be filled with confidence after winning, and covering, in 5 straight games, all of which were on the road. Considering they were underdogs in 5 of their last 6 games, the Heat are still not getting the respect they deserve. Regardless of how the Heat have done over the course of the regular season, Erik Spoelstra rallies his team in the closing weeks of the season. Miami’s ability to win the games that matter most has been well documented over the better course of the last decade. And as long as the spreads remain reasonable, they will remain profitable down the stretch.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have been surging in recent weeks, winning and covering in 8 of their last 10 games. Dallas is equipped with perennial MVP candidate Luka Doncic and crafty veteran guard Kyrie Irving. Their ability to consistently win games, regardless of the venue, is what has made them such consistent moneymakers. The Mavericks are 16-12 away from home and yet consistently get soft spreads on the road against vastly inferior squads. This has allowed them to turn all 16 of their road wins into covers, and that trend will likely persist in coming weeks. At the start of the season, Dallas used a decent offense and defense to succeed, but their points of emphasis have clearly changed down the stretch. The offense has become the top priority, and the ‘Luka Magic’ has resulted in the Mavericks transforming into a daunting offensive unit. As long as the spreads stay reasonable, the Mavericks will be winning more often than not down the stretch and shouldn’t be too far out of this column in coming weeks.

The Cold:

New York Knicks

The Knicks are in serious trouble. They’ve now failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games and have just a 3-7 straight up record in that span. Last month, New York went all-in, trading away several key pieces for the services of OG Anunoby. The move appeared to be working out nicely. However, after Anunoby and Julius Randle went down with injuries, the Knicks have been left with a very thin bench. This has resulted in the bookies overvaluing the team and still giving them the spreads they would if New York was healthy. Jalen Brunson can only do so much, and the Knicks have been transformed into a middle-of-the-pack team in the East, getting spreads like a top dog. Until the sportsbooks bring the lines back down to reality, or the Knicks stars make their return to the court, New York remains an easy fade for the foreseeable future.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have been the hottest team in the league since 2024 began, going a remarkable 20-6 straight up. Unfortunately for Cavaliers bettors, this has resulted in the Cavs getting hit with mammoth spreads on a nightly basis. While the Cavs are still a respectable 6-4 over their last 10 games, they’ve gone just 2-8 ATS, failing to cover in 7 straight games. Cleveland’s inability to pull away from inferior squads on the scoreboard is a troubling trend, as against the league’s top teams that will not be acceptable. The Cavaliers are healthy once again, and have taken advantage of injuries to their competitors, with the Knicks and 76ers sliding down the standings. There is no doubt the Cavs can keep winning games, but the fact they aren’t building big leads when things are going their way makes them a tough pick on the spread. The prices are sure to drop back down to reality for the Cavs next few games, and I don’t expect them to remain in this column for any longer.

High Scorers:

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have finished Over the posted total in 7 of their last 10 games, and they show no signs of slowing down. Chicago has been hit with a sub-230 total in 9 of their last 10 games, yet they have been consistently going over that mark. Their pace of play has quickened in recent weeks, and a trio of overtime periods certainly hasn’t hurt the cause. They’ve averaged 116.4 PPG in their last 10, well above their 111.9 PPG season average. Demar DeRozan continues to lead the way, but it has been the offensive emergence of Nikola Vucevic that has jump started their offense. Vucevic has scored 20+ points in 9 of his last 10 games, after doing so in just 15/44 previous games this season. The sportsbooks haven’t properly adjusted to the Bulls new look offense. And as long as Chicago keeps getting totals in the 210’s or 220’s the Overs should keep rolling in.

Memphis Grizzlies

Sometimes teams are in this category thanks to an offensive juvenation, but that is certainly not the case for Memphis. The Grizzlies have gone Over the total in 7 of the last 10 games and have just 2 wins to show for it. It starts with the totals. Memphis has seen their come in Under 225 in all 10 of their recent games, ensuring even an average scoring night results in an Over. It's remarkable that the Grizzlies have been able to cash Overs while scoring 95 or fewer points in 4 of their last 10 games. The plethora of injuries to their starting lineup has the bookies comfortable with these lines. And considering the Grizzlies are just 25-33 to the Over this season, these lines will persist.

Low Scorers:

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets offense has completely evaporated, allowing the total to stay Under in 9 of the last 10 games. Brooklyn has just a 2-8 record over that span, as it’s very difficult to win games in the modern-day NBA by scoring 81, 86, 86, 93, 95, and 98 points in the last 10 games. Despite the Nets scoring woes, the lines have still been consistently in the high 220’s, allowing the totals to not even come close. Brooklyn is in a tough spot, as they are still several games outside a play-in position but will be stuck without a top 8 pick unless they win the lottery. The Nets front office will be looking to see what this team is made of, and it’s unlikely they will throw in the towel down the stretch. In an attempt to catch up to the Nets poor offense, the total has closed at 215, and 210.5 in the last 2 games. If the bookies overreact and push the totals into the 200’s, the Over could be a solid wager for a team who’ll surely bounce back.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks defense has finally begun to turn the corner, and they’ve stayed Under the total in 8 of the last 10 games. The Bucks have won 3 straight, allowing just 97 PPG in that span. The Bucks were once a defensive powerhouse. However, after losing Jrue Holiday and firing Mike Budenholzer, their defense completely disappeared. Doc Rivers got off to a shaky start, but it appears he’s steadied the ship. The Bucks have the players needed to clamp down defensively. And if they can find the chemistry needed to do so, they could be in for a successful campaign. Additionally, thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard’s star power, their totals have been consistently inflated, and the Under has been cashing. If the Bucks keep getting totals that aren’t reflective of where their team currently stands, the Unders will keep on cashing in Milwaukee.

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