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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/12/2024

by Spencer Toth - 12/12/2024

NBA hot and cold ATS and Over Under Ja Morant Memphis Grizzlies

The last few weeks have been incredibly eventful in the NBA. The NBA Cup heads to Vegas for the semifinals, and the regular season standings have begun to take shape. Over the last two weeks, some teams have been able to exceed expectations, while others have been falling short consistently. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, with the highest and lowest scorers over the last two weeks. 

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The Hot:

Memphis Grizzlies

For the second straight edition of the Hot and Cold report, the Memphis Grizzlies are the hottest team in the NBA. They have won nine of their last 10 games, and their only loss was a five-point road defeat to the Dallas Mavericks. They have gone 9-1 straight up in their last 10 and 8-2 against the spread. In fact, in the only two games the Grizzlies failed to cover they missed by just a single point. Ja Morant is back in the lineup for Memphis, but it has been the play from their entire roster that has allowed them to string together wins and covers. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been a menace on both ends of the court, as his 21.9 PPG and 1.9 blocks are both team highs. Six of their last nine wins have come by double digits, as the Grizzlies are not only winning, but doing so in dominant fashion. The oddsmakers are still hesitant to give the Grizzlies the spreads they deserve, and Memphis will keep on covering until that happens. 

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors could not be doing a better job at tanking. They are losing games and currently sit second to last in the Eastern Conference, but they have done an incredible job at giving exciting games for their fans. They have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games straight up, but a sparkling 7-3 against the spread. The return of Scottie Barnes gave them early season life, but the former Rookie of the Year is now out for several more weeks. They have gone 1-11 on the road straight up but a respectable 6-7 at home. They have yet to be a favorite this season, and their ability to lose close games is truly second to none. They have only lost by more than 7 points 8 times this season and will continue to play tough basketball on both ends of the court. Toronto looks destined for many more tight games. Therefore, if the spread is approaching double digits, the Raptors are an easy pick ATS. 

The Cold:

Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers have covered the spread just once in their last 10 games, going 4-6 straight up in that span. Indiana’s poor defense was overshadowed by their electric offense last season, but that is no longer the case. Their defense hasn’t gotten any better, and inconsistent play from Tyrese Haliburton has caused them to start dropping very winnable games. The young core for Indiana still has plenty of room to grow, and oddsmakers have been taking them seriously after their shock run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. The Pacers are still a middle-of-the-pack team. And until their spreads come back down to Earth, they will keep falling short. 

Boston Celtics

It is hard to call second place in the NBA a ‘cold’ team, but the massive spreads for the Celtics have seen them go just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games. One of the major factors is that they have been 6.5-point favorites or longer in nine of their last 10 games. In that span, they have won only two games by more than 10 points, which were the only covers they were able to secure. The Celtics are still finding ways to win games, but they have been far less dominant compared to last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have continually done their part on both ends of the court, but the Celtics are no longer blowing teams out on a nightly basis. Considering Boston’s perch on top of the NBA championship odds, it is unlikely we see these spreads change anytime soon. The Celtics will keep on winning games, but be wary of taking them against the spread once the line starts approaching double digits. 

High Scorers:

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons have been Over machines, going 7-2-1 to the over in their last 10 games. The Pistons were previously perceived as a strong defensive team, but they are suddenly unable to get stops on the defensive end. They have averaged a closing line of just 222 points across the last two weeks but have continually soared over that line. Their defense is suddenly falling apart at the same time as their offense is finding their rhythm. Cade Cunningham has been an excellent distributor for the Pistons, averaging 9.4 assists per game, and 11.0 assists per game in the Pistons last 10. His ability to not only score the basketball but keep his head up on the offensive end has already made him one of the best guards in Pistons history. However, the lines will start creeping back up for the Pistons, and this is a trend that is unlikely to continue. 

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have gone 7-3 to the Over across their last 10 games thanks to their sizzling form on the offensive end. The Mavericks have won 8 of their last 10 games and have scored 118 or more points in 11 of their last 12. Luka Doncic has returned from injury and has seamlessly slotted back into the Mavericks lineup. The offseason addition of Klay Thompson is starting to pay dividends, too. Dallas spreads the floor nicely on the offensive end but can occasionally fall asleep on defense. Doncic, Thompson, and Kyrie Irving aren’t known for their defense, and it isn’t a surprise to see Dallas cashing the Overs. Their total has closed at 220+ in 10 straight games, and 229+ in 8 of those matchups. The Mavericks have shown no issues with covering these high totals. And until they start reaching 240 points, the Overs will keep on flowing. 

Low Scorers:

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors find themselves in this column thanks to strong defensive play combined with uncharacteristically cold nights on the offensive end. The Warriors have been held to double digits in 4 of their last 10 and have gone over the total just twice in the same span. They have won just 3 games in the last two weeks, and their hot start to the year has been quickly wiped away. Steph Curry has been in and out of the lineup, but the Warriors are missing scoring options outside of him and Buddy Hield. The young talents such as Kuminga, Podziemski, and Waters III have been unable to step up when the team needs it most. The Warriors make up for it with hustle on the defensive end and will likely keep cashing Unders this season. When the public hears the Golden State Warriors, they think of high scoring shootouts, but that is not how this team is built. 

Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James and the Lakers haven’t been able to dominate on offense, but strong defensive play has kept them afloat. Anthony Davis is a shot-blocking machine in the paint, and his presence alone prevents teams from taking those high percentage shots. It’s not as if the Lakers have had sky-high totals during their 7-3 run to the Under. Their slow pace of play, combined with lackluster offense, has seen them fail to fill up the hoop at the same level we have become accustomed to. Los Angeles is in a similar spot as Golden State, as their star-studded talent fools people into assuming they are a high scoring team. 

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