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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 11/27/2024

by Spencer Toth - 11/27/2024

Hot and cold NBA betting teams ATS and over under Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers

The NBA Cup is heating up as teams begin to book their places in the knockout rounds. Some teams have been able to exceed early-season expectations, while others have been consistently falling short in the betting markets. As the NBA season approaches 25% complete, here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread over the last two weeks. 

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The Hot:

Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies were hit by the injury bug to start the season, losing Marcus Smart, Ja Morant, and Desmond Bane for multiple weeks. As a result, their spreads have been generous and they have been able to consistently pick up covers. They have gone 7-3 straight up over the last two weeks, and a sparkling 9-1 against the spread. Six of their seven wins came by double digits, and a banged-up Grizzlies team had low expectations to succeed. Now that their stars are back in the lineup they will likely begin to see healthier spreads in their favor. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to beat up on the bad teams in the league while keeping it close against the top dogs. 

Orlando Magic

The Magic lost Paolo Banchero for multiple months in the opening week of the season, but they haven’t missed a beat. Their strong defense has been able to continue to shut down the league’s best teams. Their offense still needs some help, but they have held teams to 100 or fewer points in eight of their last ten games. As a result, they have gone 9-1 both straight up and against the spread. The absence of Banchero has kept the Magic as single digit favorites against teams like the 76ers, Pistons, and a pair against the Hornets. Orlando was able to win all those games by double digits. If the oddsmakers keep treating Banchero like the only reason Orlando is a contender, then the Magic will keep covering spreads. Even without their best player Orlando can play solid defense, and that is a trend not changing anytime soon. 

The Cold:

Philadelphia 76ers

The entire league is waiting for the 76ers to get good, as there is no way their talented roster should be 3-13 this season. Injuries to Paul George, Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey have certainly played a part, but the rest of the 76ers lineup should still be held accountable. The 76ers have gone just 2-8 straight up and against the spread in the last 10 games. While they have had a tough schedule, the 76ers have been underdogs of 5 points or less against the Heat, Magic, Knicks, and Clippers. Rookie of the year front runner Jared McCain has given them some life, but the 76ers need their stars back on the court as soon as possible. The 76ers household names will ensure they remain overvalued on the spread, making them the perfect team to fade for the foreseeable future. 

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have failed to cover in six consecutive games, losing five of those contests outright. DeMar DeRozan missed some time for Sacramento, but even after he has returned they have still struggled. There are not many excuses for the Kings, as their roster is full of talented, proven NBA stars. They have been favorites in 8 of their last 10 games, yet have been losing outright to teams like the Hawks, and Nets, both of which were at home too. D’Aaron Fox has been unable to replicate his strong play from last season, and there aren’t too many reasons to like Sacramento in the favorite role. If they start catching free points they will start covering spreads, but until that happens they are almost an automatic fade in the favorite role. 

High Scorers:

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are off to one of the hottest starts in recent memory, going 17-1 through their first 18 games. This includes a 14-4 against the spread record, as their offense has been truly unstoppable. Cleveland has scored 114 or more points in nine of their last ten games, and it has resulted in them going 7-3 to the over in that span. The Cavaliers used to pride themselves on their defense, but the team has done a complete 180 this season. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have been lethal on the perimeter, yet most of the Cavaliers totals are hovering in the 220’s. If you see the Cavaliers with a total in the 220s against competent opposition, the over becomes an easy pick to make. 

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets defense has been falling apart this season and has allowed the total to go over in 7 of their last 10 games. Aaron Gordon has missed time for Denver, and it is clear the team misses Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Christian Braun has plenty of potential, but he still lacks the defensive awareness to start on a championship caliber team. While the defense has been lacking, the dominant offensive play from MVP front-runner Nikola Jokic has been mesmerizing. Jokic is on track to break his lofty career highs in points, rebounds, and assists this season. The Nuggets offense is incredible with Jokic on the court, and even with totals in the 230’s, the Nuggets have still been flying over. 

Low Scorers:

Orlando Magic
The Magic have been able to consistently win and cover thanks to their defense. Orlando has cashed 8 Unders in the last 10 games, winning 9/10 in the process. Their smothering defense hasn’t missed a beat since losing Banchero, and the oddsmakers can’t lower their totals enough. They have had six consecutive totals under 220 points which is virtually unheard of in the modern day NBA. The totals will keep dropping, but when Orlando finds themselves in double digit affairs, the Under will remain a solid play down to 200 points. 

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are a fun team to watch despite the lack of wins on their record. Injuries to their starters have forced them to go deep into the bench. As a result, the defensive intensity is second to none. Toronto’s role players like Jonathan Mogbo, Ochai Agbaji, and Jamal Shead prioritize defense whenever they get a chance to step on the court. This has allowed the Raptors to keep teams within striking distance while clamping down on defense. It certainly doesn’t hurt that their totals have been in the 230s, but it appears oddsmakers are finally starting to catch on. Their 221.5 total in their last game was the lowest since October. If their totals stay high, the Under will remain profitable, but if they start falling it may be time to jump on the over as their lineup gets healthy. 

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