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Hot and Cold NBA Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 1/11/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/11/2024

Hot and Cold NBA betting teams ATS and over under Jordan Clarkson Utah Jazz

The NBA season is rapidly approaching the midway point, and some teams have been catching fire at the right time, while others are watching their season slowly slip away. Over the past 2 weeks, a pair of teams have been consistently exceeding expectations against the spread, with another duo falling short. Here are the hottest and coldest teams against the spread, with the highest and lowest scorers to start 2024.

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The Hot:

Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz have been rolling, covering in 8 of their last 10 games, with 8 outright wins to show for it. Utah got off to a slow start to the season, with injuries to Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, and Jordan Clarkson limiting their effectiveness on both ends of the court. In the last 2 weeks, the bookies have failed to account for the return of their superstars, with the Jazz coming in as an underdog in 8 of their last 10 games. Utah will continue to outperform expectations with their stars in the lineup until the bookies accurately account for the revitalized Jazz team. Kessler is critical to the rebounding success for the Jazz and has guided them to a top 5 position since his return. Ultimately, the bookies are still treating this Utah team like the 7-16 team they started as, not the 12-4 team they’ve been since.

Indiana Pacers

The high-flying Pacers offense has found their groove once again, posting a 7-2-1 record ATS, with a 8-2 outright record in the last 2 weeks. The Pacers defense is still a serious concern, but their unstoppable offense can often outscore their defensive woes. Tyrese Haliburton is crucial to the Pacers success, leading the team in PPG (23.6) and leading the league in Assists (12.5). Haliburton can drive to the hoop and score with supreme efficiency, but if the double team comes, he’s more than happy to find the open man on the perimeter. Recent wins against the Knicks, Celtics, and Bucks will have head coach Rick Carlisle confident his troops can continue their ascension up the standings. The lack of defensive effort has caused Indiana to often come in as an underdog. However, as long as their offense is humming, which it usually is, the Pacers have the potential to beat down on anyone in the league.

The Cold

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests. And while a pair of wins over the lowly Detroit Pistons have kept the Nets afloat, they are 1-9 in their last 10 against teams other than Detroit. Injuries have limited the Nets expectations this season, as their rotating starting lineup has been unable to find the chemistry needed to compete on a nightly basis. Their offense has been woeful, scoring just 113.2 PPG despite going up against some of the poorer defensive units. Ben Simmons remains on the shelf. And while Mikal Bridges and Cam Thomas have put up 21.2 and 20.3 PPG respectively, they are not good enough to lead an NBA franchise to meaningful success. The Nets have not been active enough on defense, generating the second fewest number of steals per game, and without those extra possessions, their 26th ranked field goal percentage is not good enough to pull out wins. The Nets were cover kings at the start of the year. However, in the favorite or short underdog role against quality NBA teams, they will remain an easy fade for the foreseeable future.

Atlanta Hawks 

The Hawks are once again falling short of expectations, going just 3-7 ATS over the last 10 games, adding to their league worst record of 9-27 ATS. The Hawks have been a mediocre team over the last few seasons, collecting between 41-43 wins in each of the last 3 campaigns. They’ve slipped below .500, with a 4-6 record in the last 10, and a 15-21 record overall. Trae Young is the lynchpin of their offense, leading the team in PPG (27.8) and Assists (11.0). Young is a flashy star who can get fans out of their seats, but the lack of efficiency with his 36% clip from deep has not made him an effective option down the stretch. The Hawks came in as road favorites against the Bulls and Magic, both of which they lost outright, and they simply do not deserve these types of lines against similar level opposition. The high scoring nature of their team has mitigated the negative impact of their 26th ranked defense, as the loss of John Collins, and ineffective defensive play from Clint Capela have been key factors. The Hawks have been failing to cover spreads all season long, and the recent weeks have been no expectation. Stay away from Atlanta until they are in the underdog role on a nightly basis.

High Scorers:

Toronto Raptors 

The Raptors traded away longtime defensive cornerstone OG Anunoby and other pieces in exchange for Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, and their offense has ticked upwards since. They’ve gone Over the total in 8 of their last 10 games but have just a 4-6 record to show for it. The loss of Anunoby has negatively impacted their defense, but it has resulted in the Raptors combining for 227+ points in each of their last 10, and 246+ in their last 4. Quickley injects life into a flat Raptors offense but doesn’t bring the same defensive impact on the other end of the court. Barrett has been effective from behind the arc, but the big man can occasionally fall asleep on defense and allow easy scores for the opposition. The Raptors identity has changed since the trade, but the bookies have failed to react, and accurately adjust their totals. Anything in the 230 range for Toronto will remain an easy Over, as the offensively minded Darko Rajakovic finally has the weapons he needs to run an effective offense.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The young Thunder team continues to defy expectations, cashing the Over in 8 of their last 10 games, posting a 7-3 record over that span. They remain near the top of the Western Conference, and their exuberant lineup has no fear of going shot for shot with the NBA’s best. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has built on his MVP caliber season from a year ago, scoring 31.4 PPG while chipping in 6.4 Assists. The young Canadian has become the face of the Thunder franchise and is surrounded by fellow rising stars. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have become cornerstones in Oklahoma City, and they will keep scoring at an efficient rate, and cashing Overs, as long as the lines remain reasonable. The total has closed at 230+ in the last 10 games. However, with the Thunder scoring 115+ by themselves in every contest, the Over often gets over the line midway through the 4th quarter. The high pace of play and seemingly endless energy supply has allowed the Thunder to push the pace and get easy buckets in transition. The bookies will keep posting high totals, and the Thunder will keep eclipsing them.

Low Scorers

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls managed to stay afloat while Zach LaVine was out, but their offense has been slowly ticking down, cashing the Over in just 2 of the last 10 games. LaVine’s return to the lineup could give them an offensive lift, but the heavy isolation style of LaVine ensures the clock gets drained, and low percentage shots are taken. The Bulls have been in limbo for the last few seasons, not tanking hard enough for a good draft pick but failing to qualify for the postseason. Their defense has been improving, which is a big reason for this trend, holding their opponents to 120 or fewer points in their last 16 games. Alex Caruso is a menace on the defensive end, and the surprising defensive impact DeMar DeRozan has had on the team is a solid positive. Overall, Chicago is consistently hit with sub 230 totals. And while they may seem like an easy Under, they will be out of this column in no time. Stay away from Chicago Unders, as the market has likely reached the lowest it ever will.

New York Knicks

In the last edition of this report, the Knicks were one of the high scorers, but they’ve shored up their defense, cashing the Under in 7 of the last 10 games. OG Anunoby’s arrival has brought the defensive nature of the Knicks back to New York, with the Under and the Knicks going a perfect 5-0 since his arrival. The loss of Mitchell Robinson in the interior left a gaping hole in the Knicks defense, and the bookies failed to adjust. Now, they have over-adjusted and failed to account for the elite defense Anunuoby brings to the court. In addition, the loss of the high paced Quickley has brought the Knicks pace to a crawl, and fewer shots result in fewer points, regardless of the efficiency. At anything above 230, the Knicks will remain a solid look on the Under, as their solid defense, slow pace of play, and long possessions are a great recipe for below average totals.

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