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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 7/29/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/29/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Erick Fedde Chicago White Sox

One of the most exciting weeks in the regular season is here as the Trade Deadline approaches and teams across the league begin to reshape their roster. The Wild Card races are heating up, with 10 NL teams competing for three available spots, while the AL has five. The Phillies’ 8.5-game lead over the Braves is the largest out of all the division races, while Houston and Seattle head into the new week in a tie atop the AL West and the Orioles have a one game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Before we get into the hype of the trades we will be treated with this week, let’s take a look at the second half trends we have seen from teams since the All-Star Break.

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ATS

Hot

Detroit Tigers 8-2

The second half schedule for the Tigers has been anything but kind, as they started with seven straight road games, including four in Cleveland before returning home to play Minnesota for three. Though they did go just 5-5 overall in those games, they covered in eight and covered all seven games on the road. The series with the Twins was ugly outside of Tarik Skubal’s (could be last in Detroit) start. This stretch has been a perfect representation of their season; the bullpen is awful, and the lineup is not very deep. Outside of outfielder Riley Greene (3.9 WAR) and reliever Tyler Holton (2.97 ERA), the rest of their respected groups have underperformed this season. It is worth noting that the Tigers have covered 34 of their 57 road games this season (59.6%), which is good for the second most road covers in the MLB, and they have covered in their last 10. Overall, the Tigers have covered 53 of their 109 of their games this season.

Season Standings:

1) Kansas City Royals 60-46

2) Los Angeles Angels 60-46

3) Washington Nationals 60-47

Cold

Texas Rangers 2-8

Like Detroit, the Rangers went 5-5 over their last 10 overall, but they had some bad losses and won only one game by more than a run. This stretch does include a four-game sweep over the Chicago White Sox, but they only covered in one of those games as three of the four wins were by one run. Thanks to injuries, the Rangers have not been able to find their groove this season and are one of the handful of teams who could buy or sell this week before the deadline. It’s the bats that continue to let Texas down. Adolis Garcia has a -0.1 WAR on the year, while he and sluggers Marcus Semien and Corey Seager have yet to reach 20 homeruns. The Rangers rank 21st in OPS, 18th in runs, and 17th in homeruns. Texas has been one of the worst teams ATS this season, as they have covered in just 47 of their 106 games.  Unless they acquire a bat or two, it looks like we can expect the same performance ATS down the stretch.

Season Standings:

1) Chicago White Sox 47-61

2) Seattle Mariners 48-60

3) Atlanta Braves 47-59

Game Total

Over

Baltimore Orioles - 9/10 over game totals in last 10 games

It’s not a surprise to see one of the best lineups in baseball produce a lot of overs. Since the beginning of the second half, games the Orioles have played in have had an average of 10.56 runs per game. The Orioles rank fourth in runs, first in homeruns, and third in OPS. There is production up and down their lineup, as they have seven guys with a 1.5 WAR or better, three guys with 60 or more RBIs, and eight with double-digit homeruns marks. For a team that averages nearly five runs a game, if their pitching has anything less than a good start, the over becomes highly likely. When you’re carrying a, post All-Star Game, team ERA of 4.67, you hit the over in nine of 10 games. Overall, Baltimore has hit the over in 54.3% of their games this season, and their 57 overs is good for fifth best in the league.

Season Standings:

1) Detroit Tigers 59-43-4

2) Miami Marlins 59-45-3

3) New York Yankees 58-47-4

Under

Cleveland Guardians - 8/10 under game totals in last 10 games

Teams are successful in different ways. The Orioles are one of the leagues best teams thanks to their deep lineup, the Guardians are the AL’s best team thanks to the best bullpen in the MLB. Cleveland has seen the south side of the game total in their last five games. Cleveland has a bullpen ERA of 2.47, which is by far the best in the MLB. Emmanuel Clase is the best reliever in baseball, as he has 33 saves, a 0.73 ERA, and has allowed just one homerun and six walks across 49.1 innings of work. He anchors a bullpen that includes Hunter Gaddis (1.08 ERA), Cade Smith (1.99 ERA), Tim Herrin (1.30 ERA), Scott Barlow (3.16 ERA), and Sam Hentges (3.04 ERA). They do head to Detroit next, and the Tigers were the opponent when the only two overs occurred during the last 10 games. Overall, Cleveland has been middle-of-the-pack in regards to the game total, with the under occurring in 50 of their 105 games this season.

Season Standings:

1) Atlanta Braves 38-63-5

2) Chicago Cubs 45-61-3

3) Houston Astros 43-60-3

Moneyline

Hot

San Diego Padres 7-3

San Diego has had an ideal start to the second half of their season after ending a nine-game road stretch with a 7-2 record, taking the series victory against the likes of Cleveland, Washington, and Baltimore. The second half started with a 7-0 loss to the Guardians, but then the Padres went on to win their next seven contests, swept the Nationals, before falling in their last game against Baltimore. During their seven-game win streak, they allowed just 12 runs and had a +31-run differential. San Diego ranks sixth in runs scored and OPS since the All-Star Break and have the fourth best team ERA since the week off (2.96). At 57-51, the Padres find themselves in the second Wild Card spot, a game behind Atlanta for the top spot and a half a game lead over the Mets. The NL Wild Card race is going to go down to the last games of the season, so it will be important for the Padres to maintain this momentum down the stretch.

Cold

Chicago White Sox 0-10

The least surprising trend on this list is this one right here. The Southsiders are one of the worst teams ever and are on pace to win just 41 games. They have lost their last 14 games and have a -54-run differential over the losing skid. Believe it or not, this is the second time the White Sox have had a losing streak to reach 14 games this season. Luis Robert Jr. has been the best piece in their dreadful lineup and leads his team with a 1.0 WAR. Outside of Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, and Robert Jr., this team is terrible. And to make matters worse, it is highly likely that those three names plus others will be wearing another team’s jersey by the end of the week. Hang in there, White Sox fans, 2030 is closer than you think.

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