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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 6/18/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 6/18/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Ross Stripling Oakland Athletics

With the start of all the weekday series, let’s take a look at who’s hot and who’s not while addressing a few league notes. As of last Friday, the New York Yankees became the first team in the MLB to reach 50 wins, with the Philadelphia Phillies (48 wins) and Baltimore Orioles (47 wins) on their heels. The AL East is the only interesting division race at the moment, with the Yankees leading the Orioles by 1.5 games. The next closest division race is in the AL Central, where the Cleveland Guardians hold a five-game lead over the Kansas City Royals. There has been a slew of injuries this week, with Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto set to miss extended time, while Anthony Rizzo is also expected to be out at least a month. Finally, we may see three future Hall of Fame arms return in the summer months, with Gerrit Cole returning tomorrow, while Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are nearing their return to the mound. Now let’s get into the numbers.

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ATS

Hot

Baltimore Orioles 8-2

In the midst of perhaps their toughest regular season stretch, Baltimore has dominated the opposition and has put themselves in a good position to overthrow the Yankees in the AL East standings. After sweeping the Rays in a four game road series, Baltimore hosted the two NL East titans in Philadelphia and Atlanta and went 4-2 with a +10-run differential, with the two losses being the only games they have failed to cover since June 7th. The offense has been a huge difference-maker, as they rank first in the MLB in homeruns and third in OPS and runs. The emergence of Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have boosted this lineup to the next level, as the two have combined for a 3.8 WAR, with 20 homeruns and 73 RBIs. And if the offense isn’t impressive enough, Baltimore’s pitching staff ranks 2nd in the MLB in ERA, led by Corbin Burnes’ Cy Young worthy season with 12 quality starts and a 2.14 ERA through 92.2 innings of work. With back-to-back road series against the Yankees and Astros, the Orioles will have their work cut out for them. However, they do lead the MLB in covers, so expect the games to be kept close.

Season Standings:

1) Baltimore Orioles 45-28

2) New York Yankees 45-31

3) Kansas City Royals 44-29

Cold

San Diego Padres 3-7

San Diego is going through a tough stretch as well, just in a different way. They had a seven game homestand against Arizona and Oakland where they went 5-2 but covered in just three games, and the Padres have now lost four in a row and have failed to cover in their last six contests. Over their last four games, they have a -17-run differential, with the lineup producing just 2.5 runs per game. The lineup has been the X-Factor, as the Padres are more than capable of putting up 6-7 runs seemingly every night, but often find themselves limited to just 2-3 runs a game. In a lineup with Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, and Fernando Tatis Jr. it’s surprising to know that Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill lead the offense in WAR. They have the bats, but they just need to put it together. Till then, the Padres will hover over mediocrity and a .500 record. Overall, the Padres are 36-40 ATS this season.

Season Standings:

1) Miami Marlins 29-44

2) Tampa Bay Rays 31-42

3) Houston Astros 32-41

Game Total

Over

Arizona Diamondbacks 8-2

The only consistency for the Diamondbacks is their efforts in high scoring games in the month of June. Since June 1st, Arizona and their opponents have combined to average 11.8 runs per game, well over the average game total mark. As for the inconsistencies, over the last 10 games, the Diamondbacks have scored seven or more runs in five games but have given up eight or more runs in four of them. They are either scoring a bunch of runs or giving up a bunch of runs. Arizona has hit the over in 12 of their last 15 games but have just a +9-run differential over that span. Their offense does rank sixth in the league in runs and 26th in ERA, which is a good recipe for overs. Despite the numbers, the Diamondbacks have hit the over in only 36 of their 73 games this season.

Season Standings:

1) Detroit Tigers 41-27-3

2) San Francisco Giants 40-32-2

3) Milwaukee Brewers 39-31-3

Under

Chicago Cubs 1-9

The summer heat has seemingly gotten to the Chicago Cubs. They aren’t scoring runs, and they are not winning games. The now last place Cubs have gone just 7-17 over their last 24 games and have averaged a mere 2.9 runs over their last 10 games. After a promising start to the season for Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki, the two bats have battled injuries and have not been consistent as a result. Michael Busch and Ian Happ are tied for the team lead with a 1.5 WAR, despite combining for a .770 OPS. Christopher Morel leads the club in longballs and RBIs, but he is hitting below the Mendoza Line and has a -0.1 WAR. Dansby Swanson is another notable bat that has failed to produce for the Cubs, as the veteran shortstop has a lowly .286 OBP and a .629 OPS. The starting rotation has been incredible for the Cubs, and the under seems like a lock on the nights where Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad toe the rubber, not to mention Jameson Taillon and Justin Steele both have sub 3.25 ERAs. So long as the summer sun holds its victory over these bats, continue to expect a lot of low scoring games for the Cubs. Overall, the Cubs have seen the south side of the game total in 42 of their 75 games, which ranks fourth in the MLB.

Season Standings:

1) Seattle Mariners 28-44-2

2) Houston Astros 27-43-3

3) Texas Rangers 26-43-3

Moneyline

Hot

New York Mets 8-2

Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, the New York Mets are now just a game out of the final National League Wild Card spot. The pitching has really come on for the Mets over the course of their six-game winning streak. They have allowed just 16 runs since June 12th. Yes, 10 of their 12 games were against teams with losing records, but the feat is still impressive as they carry a +35-run differential. Though this team will likely be sellers, those trade chips are starting to turn it on at the right time for themselves and for the Mets, as their prices will go up if they continue at this pace.

Cold

Oakland Athletics 1-9

Last but not least, it’s not the 19-win Chicago White Sox, but the Oakland Athletics who are the MLBs coldest team to date. Oakland has lost nine straight, as the offense has scored just 28 runs during the losing streak. They have also allowed five or more runs in eight of their last nine games. The Athletics have utilized 11 different starting pitchers this season, with only JP Sears and Ross Stripling having double digit starts. Sears and Stripling have a combined 5.04 ERA. The lineup isn’t any better, as they rank 28th in the league in runs, and there is not one bat hitting over .260. To make matters worse, the Athletics are set to face the Twins and Royals over their next six games, so expect the losing trend to continue.

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