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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 5/31/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/31/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Andres Gimenez Cleveland Guardians

It’s time to check in and see which teams are hot or not around the league. As we close the door on the month of May, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees are at the top of each league’s standings, with the Phillies a half of a game better than the Yankees for the league lead. The Atlanta Braves have now lost arguably their two best players in Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna for the year after Acuna tore his ACL again earlier this week. The Chicago White Sox are the only team to not reach 20 wins on the season, while there has not been a bigger or better surprise than to see the Cleveland Guardians sit atop the AL Central with a 37-19 record. Now let’s get into some numbers.

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ATS

Hot

Los Angeles Angels 8-2

Though 4-6 overall in their last 10, the Angels have covered the spread eight times. The two games they didn’t cover were against the Yankees and Guardians, the American League’s two best squads. The Angels have been doing really well keeping the games close, as they have seen six one-run games in this current stretch. While looking at the numbers it is hard to make sense of it all, other than manager Ron Washington getting 110% effort and 0 quit from his team. Aside from Tyler Anderson (2.47 ERA across 11 starts) the pitching rotation is terrible with Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Griffin Canning all posting ERAs over 5.00. The Angels rank 28th in team ERA and 24th in WHIP. Their offense hasn’t fared any better, especially since Mike Trout’s injury, as they rank 18th in runs with Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward headlining this subpar lineup. However, results are results and the Angels now rank third in the MLB in covers, covering in 57% of their games.

Season Standings:

  1. Kansas City Royals 38-20
  2. Washington Nationals 34-23
  3. Los Angeles Angels 32-24

Cold

Tampa Bay Rays 1-9

This season has been incredibly disappointing for the Rays, and their current 10 game stretch has them continuing to trend down. Over the last 10 games, their lone cover was a 4-1 win over the Royals. They have won two other games over this stretch, both against the lowly Oakland Athletics, but only by one run at home, with one game needing to go 12 innings. Their offense has been terrible of late, as they have managed just 28 runs during this stretch and have been shut out twice. One big reason for their offensive struggles is the fact that Randy Arozarena is hitting just .159 through his first 200 at-bats. Though they have improved over their last four games, the pitching staff has underperformed this season as well and Tampa Bay has allowed 50 runs over their last 10, meaning they have an average -2.2 run differential. No wonder they aren’t covering.

Season Standings:

  1. Chicago White Sox 23-34
  2. Houston Astros 24-34
  3. Miami Marlins 24-34

Over

Kansas City Royals 7-3

After an eight-game win streak ended on May 25th, the Royals have gone just 1-4 since, as the bats have gone cold. During their eight-game winning streak, they averaged 7.5 runs per game. Since then, they have averaged just five runs. Five of the seven overs in this stretch came at the latter half of the win streak, while they saw the over in two of their losses to Minnesota. Kansas City ranks fourth in the league in runs and doubles, eighth in OPS, and sixth in stolen bases. Bobby Witt Jr. is having an MVP-caliber season, as he already has a 3.5 WAR with nine homeruns and 16 stolen bases. Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez have been nice compliments as well, with the two combining for 15 homeruns and 75 RBIs. Overall, the Royals have hit the over in just 24 of their 57 games.

Season Standings:

  1. Milwaukee Brewers 33-23-1
  2. Miami Marlins 32-26
  3. Detroit Tigers 31-21-3

Under

Texas Rangers 1-8-1

It’s been a tough go of it for the Rangers this season, as their best pitchers have dropped like flies onto the injured list. Texas has gone just 5-12 over their last 17 games and has lost five of their last six series. From May 18th to May 25th the Rangers scored just 17 runs, but their pitching allowed just 33 runs over the same seven games. In their last three contests, Texas has got the offense going, scoring 16 runs while allowing just five. Despite the offense waking up a bit, the pitching continues to be dominant and has kept opponents to just 3.8 runs a game over their last 10, equating to low-scoring affairs. If the back two-thirds of this lineup continues to struggle, expect a lot of low scoring games for the Rangers as shut down pitchers like Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom near their returns. Overall, the Rangers have seen the under in 33 of their 56 games this season.

Season Standings:

  1. Seattle Mariners 21-35-2
  2. Atlanta Braves 20-34-2
  3. Toronto Blue Jays 24-33

Moneyline

Hot

Cleveland Guardians 8-2

The Guardians have far exceeded expectations so far this season and are in the driver’s seat in the AL Central with a 37-19 record. They lead the American League with 286 runs scored and have seen Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, and Josh Naylor form quite the trio in their lineup and Steven Kwan is still hitting .353 on the year. Emmanuel Clase continues to be the best reliever in the game with a 0.33 ERA across 27.1 innings, and he anchors the best bullpen in the MLB. The starting rotation is a weak spot for the club, with Logan Allen, Tanner, Bibee, and Triston McKenzie combining for a 4.53 ERA and a -0.3 WAR. However, if Cleveland adds a starter before the deadline, this team may win it all. The Guardians will play Washington and Miami three times each over the next week and a half, so expect the winning ways to continue.

Cold

Chicago White Sox 1-9

To no surprise, the White Sox are the coldest team in baseball over the last 10 games, with their lone win coming against another last place team, the Toronto Blue Jays. The White Sox are 1-12 over their last 13, as their lineup has averaged just 2.77 runs over their last 13 games. The Southsiders are the only team in the MLB that has not yet reached the 200 run mark, as they have just 161 runs through their first 57 games. As if that’s not enough, they have allowed 288 runs, which is the second most in the league behind only Colorado. They are also the only team that has not achieved 20 wins. And at their current pace, they are projected to finish with a miserable record of 43-119.

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