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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 5/23/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/23/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Austin Riley Atlanta Braves

As we near the end of May and are on summer’s doorstep, we are starting to see some teams maintain their excellent starts, while others begin to fall back to expectations. We are starting to see some separation in the division standings, with the Los Angeles Dodgers seven-game lead over the San Diego Padres being the largest lead, while the Philadelphia Phillies continue their historic run to start the season and have a six-game lead over the Atlanta Braves. Both Central Divisions look like they will be exciting down the stretch, with the Cleveland Guardians leading the AL Central by 1.5 games over the surprise Kansas City Royals, and the Milwaukee Brewers hold the same lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. The Chicago White Sox are still the worst team in the MLB at 15-35 and are the only club to not eclipse the 150, 160, 170, or 180 run mark, and their -107-run differential is by far the worst. Now let’s get into this week’s numbers and trends.

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ATS

Hot

Pittsburgh Pirates 8-2

At 23-27, the Pirates are not impressing anyone, but they have covered eight of their last 10 games and seem to have found not one, but two future aces they can slot in their rotation. The Pirates have been playing much better baseball of late and have won four of their last six games, with the only loss being an extra inning blunder in last night’s contest. The pitching has been the key for Pittsburgh. Jared Jones is already off to an impressive start to the season, and the rookie has maintained a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his 10 starts, and the call-up of Paul Skenes has only boosted the rotation as the young phenom has 18 strikeouts over 10 innings and has a 0.90 WHIP. This is not a streak that will last. However, when Jones and Skenes are set to toe the rubber, it may be worth grabbing a Pirates cover. Overall, the Pittsburgh Pirates have covered 27 of their 52 games this season.

Season Standings:

1) Kansas City Royals 33-18

2) Cleveland Guardians 30-20

3) Washington Nationals 29-21

Cold

Oakland Athletics 1-9

After starting the month of May with three consecutive wins, the Oakland Athletics have gone just 3-14 and have won just one game in their last 10 contests. They were swept in back-to-back series, on the road to Houston and Kansas City, and they have a -32-run differential during this cold spell. When you are losing by an average of 3.2 runs per game, it shows negatives on both sides of the game. However, the offense has managed just 25 runs since May 12th and was held to three or less seven times in the last 10. Another correlating stat that just makes sense when you lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game, is the failure to cover the run line. Oakland’s only cover was an extra inning loss to Houston. Outside of Mason Miller and Brent Rooker, there is not a lot of bright spots for this team, and they now have returned to the basement of the AL West. Overall, Oakland is 25-27 ATS this season.

Season Standings:

1) Miami Marlins 19-33

2) Texas Rangers 19-31

3) Houston Astros 21-30

Over

Detroit Tigers 8-2

Detroit has seen a lot of high scoring games lately, with the over hitting in 11 of their last 14 games, but they have just a 5-9 record over that stretch as their pitching has been terrible of late. Since May 7th, the Tigers have allowed an average of 5.07 runs per game, and they have allowed six or more runs in each of their last four games. Outside of Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson, the pitching staff has a lot of issues. Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda, and Matt Manning all have recorded five or more starts and have a combined ERA of 4.99. The offense does rank in the lower third of the league. However, with the poor pitching performance thus far, it is no surprise to see this team hit the over this frequently. On the year, the Tigers have hit the over 27 times, which is good for the third highest mark in the MLB.

Season Standings:

1) Miami Marlins 31-21

2) Milwaukee Brewers 30-20

3) Detroit Tigers 27-18-3

Under

Atlanta Braves 3-7

On paper, it would shock most when they realize the Braves rank third in the MLB with 30 under game total performances. However, if you look at the numbers, you will see the Braves lineup is severely underperforming. Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez have formed a formidable trio and have covered the absence of Spencer Strider, but the lineup has not replicated last year’s numbers, despite being almost identical. Last year’s MVP, Ronald Acuna, has just three homeruns and a .694 OPS, while Matt Olson and Austin Riley have combined for a lowly .724 OPS and just 10 homeruns. Marcell Ozuna has been the only bright spot in the lineup, and he leads the team in OPS, homeruns, RBIs, and runs scored. Though the lineup should break out of this slump, the numbers are concerning.

Season Standings:

1) Chicago Cubs 21-30-1

2) Boston Red Sox 19-30-2

3) Atlanta Braves 16-30-2

Moneyline

Hot

Cleveland Guardians 9-1

The Guardians have been an incredible surprise this season and have played extremely well, even after losing their ace, Shane Bieber, for the year. The lineup has performed better than expected, as Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have 12 homeruns each, and Steven Kwan is still hitting .353 this far into the season. The highlight of this team is the bullpen. Emmanuel Clase anchors the bullpen and has 15 saves and a 0.36 ERA through 25.1 innings. Hunter Gaddis, Nick Sandlin, Cade Smith, and Tim Herrin have all recorded at least 20.2 innings and each have ERAs less than 2.40. If this team adds a bat or two this summer… watch out.

Cold

Oakland Athletics 1-9

Unfortunately, reaching .500 a few weeks ago was the high point for Oakland this season. Expect a big sale during the summer months and for this team to join the White Sox and Rockies as the worst teams in the MLB.

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