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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 5/13/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/13/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Stephen Kolek San Diego Padres

With the new week upon us, it is time to dive into the recent trends going on around the league. The Dodgers, Padres, and Phillies have been hot lately, while the Cardinals and Reds find themselves in massive slumps as we near the midway point in May. The Dodgers lead the MLB with a +74-run differential, while the White Sox sit in the basement with a -90-run differential mark. Kyle Tucker jumped to the top of the league standings in homeruns over the weekend as his 13 bombs leads Marcell Ozuna and Gunnar Henderson by one. Speaking of player leader boards, Elly De La Cruz leads the MLB with 25 stolen bases, nine more than Brice Turang, who is in second. If De La Cruz can keep this up, he is on pace to record 102 stolen bases this season. Oh, and he has nine homeruns. Move over Ronald Acuna and your 40/70 season, Elly is coming. No more fluff… let’s get into the numbers.

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ATS

Hot

San Diego Padres 8-2

The Padres have been dominant lately and have a +22-run differential to show for it over their last 11 games. The pitching has been incredible for San Diego and is a big reason for their recent surge. They have allowed five or more runs just twice dating back to April 29, while the offense has been averaging 4.82 runs per game over their last 11 contests. Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish have had incredible seasons so far, with both pitchers having sub 2.45 ERAs and have combined for a 2.7 WAR. Out of the bullpen, Robert Suarez has been incredible, as he has posted a 0.49 ERA in 18.1 innings of work this season, while Stephen Kolek and Jhony Brito have been innings eaters. The offense has not been performing like they are capable of. However, if they can get going, this Padres team will be a force to be reckoned with.

Season Standings

1) Kansas City Royals 26-16

2) Chicago Cubs 25-18

3) Washington Nationals 25-16

Cold

St. Louis Cardinals 2-8

It is no surprise to see this team on the list. The Cardinals are in complete disarray and have been down all year. The lineup has been terrible, and the pitching has failed to be good enough for the club to win games. They have failed to score more than five runs in a game since April 27, and they rank near the bottom of almost every major offensive category. To make matters worse, their best bat in Willson Contreras is out for some time, leaving Masyn Winn as the best statistical bat in the Cardinals lineup. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have a combined 0.1 WAR, with just five homeruns between the two of them in nearly 40 games this season. Sonny Gray has been the only offseason acquisition to benefit the starting rotation, as Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have a combined 3.73 ERA. Returning starters Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz have a combined 6.19 ERA. This team needs to wipe the boards and start all over.

Season Standings

1) Miami Marlins 12-31

2) Houston Astros 16-25

3) Texas Rangers 18-24

Over

Miami Marlins 8-2

After trading away the best contact hitter in baseball, it is a surprise to see the Marlins on this list with so many overs. Well, all it takes is one look at their pitching to begin to understand why this poor offensive team leads the league in overs. Over the last 10 games, the Marlins have allowed 69 runs. Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera have each recorded five of more starts and have started a total of 27 games. In those starts, they have combined for just five quality starts and have an ERA of 6.06. It is worth noting that their next six games are against two lineups that rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive production. But, who knows, this pitching staff makes every lineup look good.

Season Standings

1) Miami Marlins 26-17

2) Milwaukee Brewers 25-16

3) Tampa Bay Rays 24-17

Under

Atlanta Braves 1-9

In almost a complete 180-flip, it is strange to see the Braves having so many low scoring games despite having one of the best lineups in baseball history. The problem is the lineup hasn’t woken up yet. They have won four of their last five games, but the offense failed to score more than five runs in any of them and have not done so since April 26. The power trio of Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson have a combined 0.699 OPS. And outside of Marcell Ozuna, no other Braves player has an OPS north of .882. The good news for the Braves is their pitching has been solid and this lineup isn’t full of unproven guys. The runs will come making this trend unsustainable in the long run.

Season Standings

1) Seattle Mariners 14-26-1

2) Boston Red Sox 14-25-2

3) Toronto Blue Jays 18-24

Moneyline

Hot

Philadelphia Phillies 8-2

The Phillies are the best team in baseball, record-wise and numbers wise. They are the most complete team in recent memory. And if you don’t believe me, go to ESPN and look at team statistics and you will see the Phillies ranking in the Top Five of every major category except saves. You know you are good when you are this far into the season and Aaron Nola has the highest ERA in your rotation and it’s only 3.67. Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm continue to be shutdown options for the Phillies, as the two have combined for 34.1 innings and have a 1.05 ER. To add to their elite pitching, Alec Bohm and Trea Turner are both having MVP-caliber seasons.

Cold

Cincinnati Reds 1-9

After a solid showing last season and high hopes heading into this campaign, the Reds have been disappointing. They have had virtually no offensive production over their last 10 games, and they have lost 10 of their last 11 contests. The lineup has averaged just 2.45 runs per game and has been held to one or fewer runs four times in the stretch. Outside of Elly De La Cruz, the lineup has struggled mightily with the rest of the team (offense) combining for a 0.3 WAR compared to De La Cruz’s 2.0 mark. Spencer Steer is the next best thing in the Reds lineup, and he has a mellow .774 OPS. The Reds need a bat or two externally or internally to get this season figured out before they fall too far behind the Brewers and Cubs.

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