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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 4/26/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/26/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Joey Bart Pittsburgh Pirates

What better time to check out some betting trends than before a weekend series? The two best teams in baseball will square off in Atlanta as the Braves host the Guardians, but this is not the only top interleague matchup as the New York Yankees will travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers. Two of the MLB’s ERA leaders will face off tonight as Shota Imanaga (0.84 ERA) will share the mound with Kutter Crawford (0.66 ERA). That’s what is ahead, but let’s take a deep dive into the league’s best performers and see where you can make some money.

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ATS

Hot

Chicago Cubs 8-2

The Cubs are the best in the MLB thus far in covering the spread. They have covered 10 of their last 12 games, in large part because of their excellent pitching across the board. Over the last 10 games, the Cubs allowed more than three runs just two times. Javier Assad and Shota Imanaga have been incredible for the Cubs, combining for a 1.42 ERA, 47 strikeouts, and a 0.88 WHIP across 48.1 innings of work. The offense has struggled a bit as Cody Bellinger was cold before landing on the injured list, and Seiya Suzuki has missed some time with an injury of his own. The offense has averaged 4.9 runs per game over their last 10. The Cubs are set to start a seven-game road trip against the Red Sox and Mets, who have combined to go 30-23 ATS this season.

Season:

1) Chicago Cubs 19-8

2) Cleveland Guardians 17-8

3) Baltimore Orioles 16-10

Cold

Chicago White Sox 2-8

Staying in Chicago, it is no surprise to see the White Sox as the coldest team ATS as they are the worst team we have seen in years. They are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have allowed six or more runs in their last nine contests. Their pitching is horrendous, as Erick Fedde is the only starter with an ERA of less than 4.00. Garrett Crochet, Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen all have made three or more starts and all have ERAs north of 6.35. Reliever Jordan Leasure joins Fedde as the only pitcher with a sub 4.00 ERA that has pitched more than 10 innings this season. To make matters worse, their offense is just as bad. Over the last 10 games, they have averaged just two runs per game and have been shut out twice. Not one person on the team has a batting average over .300, and the team has managed just 56 runs so far. It’s going to be a long season for the South Siders.

Season:

1) Houston Astros 9-18

2) Miami Marlins 9-18

3) Chicago White Sox 9-16

Over

Baltimore Orioles 7-3

The Orioles are tied for the league lead in overs with 16. Baltimore’s offense is one of the best in the MLB, as they rank fifth in runs, first in homeruns, and third in OPS. They also rank just outside the top ten in stolen bases. Gunnar Henderson (1.7 WAR), Jordan Westburg (1.5 WAR), and Colston Cowser (1.2 WAR) have led the way for the lineup, while Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle are hitting over .300. The pitching has aided in some of the overs, as every starter, but Corbin Burnes, has been questionable. The starters, outside of Burnes, have a 4.89 ERA, which helps a team get over the game total when you pair that with an offense that is averaging 5.67 runs per game. Baltimore has Oakland and New York on deck, so look for the over trend to continue against Oakland’s poor pitching and the clash of the Yankees lineups with the Orioles.

Season:

1) Baltimore Orioles 16-8-2

2) Los Angeles Dodgers 16-10-1

3) Tampa Bay Rays 16-11

Under

Houston Astros 1-8-1

The Astros have quickly become one of the surprises of the 2024 campaign as they are off to a 7-19 start and are three games behind the Oakland Athletics in the AL West. Despite ranking third in hits, ninth in OPS, and seventh in total bases, the Astros offense ranks 20th in runs. They are currently in the midst of a five-game losing streak where the lineup has tallied just 10 runs while the pitching has given up 25. The Astros have allowed more than four runs in nine of their last 10 games. However, thanks to their failure to hit in the clutch, they keep seeing the south side of the game total. Everyone should pump the brakes and not give up on Houston; the runs are coming. And if their pitching continues to perform poorly, then the under trend will cease.

Season:

1) Seattle Mariners 7-17-1

2) Kansas City Royals 8-16-1

3) Houston Astros 9-16-2

Moneyline

Hot

Atlanta Braves 9-1

The Braves have picked up right where they left off last regular season and have dominated again despite the injuries. After losing Sean Murphy and Ozzie Albies for some and Spencer Strider for the season, the Braves appeared to be in trouble, but have dominated the opposition. Their lone loss came against the Rangers, who faced a spot starter who was sent down to AAA after the start. The lineup has continued to be one of the best in baseball, as the Braves rank fourth in runs, sixth in homeruns, and first in OPS. The stats show dominance. However, if you look closer, you can see that Matt Olson and Austin Riley have yet to get hot. Wait till those two sluggers join the show… The Braves’ unsung hero so far has been Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 0.72 ERA in his four starts for Atlanta after transitioning back to a starter.

Cold

Pittsburgh Pirates 2-8

The White Sox (1-9) and Astros (2-8) already got their time, so next up is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been really struggling. After starting the season 10-2, the Pirates are now 13-13 and rank fourth in the NL Central. The lineup has struggled over the last 10 games, averaging just two runs per game. The rotation has been a bit of surprise for Pittsburgh and has performed well, even with their ace, Mitch Keller, posting a 5.14 ERA to date. Outside of trade chip Bryan Reynolds, the lineup is not going to get it done, and we should see another poor finish for Pittsburgh this season.

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