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Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 4/18/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/18/2024

MLB hot and cold betting teams ATS and Over Under Michael Toglia Colorado Rockies

As teams near the 20-game mark of the season, we have been given a good enough sample size to see how teams are performing relative to game totals and covers. Though it is still April, getting on trends early in the season can be a nice compliment to your bank account if done correctly. The Chicago Cubs lead the league in covers, going 13-5 against the spread, while no team has been worse than the Miami Marlins, who have covered just six times in 19 games. As for the game total, the Milwaukee Brewers have hit the over 12 times in 17 games, while the Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners have seen the under 12 times. As the season progresses and streaks unfold, it is time to see where the money is being made.

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ATS

Hot

New York Mets 9-1

The Mets have been on a hot streak over the last week and a half, as the pitching has stepped up and the bats have gotten hot. Over the last 10 games, the Mets have scored 65 runs, which alone ranks higher than four teams season run totals. Pete Alonso has gotten off to a hot start, leading the team with six homeruns, while Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo have been nice compliments as Marte leads the team in hits and Nimmo leads in RBIs. It is worth noting that the Mets hot streak has not come against the best competition, as they are coming off a six game homestand against the Royals and Pirates in which they went 5-1 with a +15-run differential. Now, they are headed to the West Coast for three games against the Dodgers and three against the Giants. We will see if the streak can continue. Overall, the Mets are just 10-8 ATS on the year after a 1-7 start.

Cold

Chicago Whie Sox 3-7

It has already been a season to forget for the White Sox. They have limped to a 3-15 record, as the offense is almost nonexistent and the pitching staff has a 4.46 ERA. The White Sox have scored just 38 times this season, which ranks last in the MLB, and the next worst mark is the Oakland Athletics, who have 56 runs. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiminez are both hurt, which severely limits what this below-average lineup can do. Chicago has just 10 homeruns this season and they have a team OPS of .571. The White Sox have gone 8-10 ATS this season and are about to go on a seven-game road trip, so the woes are likely to continue.

Over

Milwaukee Brewers 9-1

The offense has been much better than expected for the Brewers to start the season. They rank in the top seven in runs scored and top three in homeruns, while their .795 OPS trails only the Atlanta Braves mark of .841. Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Willy Adames have formed a solid offensive trio, as the three have accounted for over 40% of the team’s offense. All three are hitting over .300, have double-digit RBI counts, and OPS marks north of .900. The pitching staff has gone a bit cold over the last five games, as they have allowed 24 runs, but that only helps the over to hit. Freddy Peralta and Collin Rea have combined for a 2.63 ERA over 34.1 innings of work, but the other three starters have ERAs over 4.90. Overall, the Brewers have seen the north side of the game total in 70.5% of their games, which is the highest mark in the MLB.

Under

Philadelphia Phillies 2-8

The Phillies do better in low-scoring games. In the two games that went over the game total, the Phillies allowed six and nine runs. In the eight games that hit the under, they have given up only 16 runs. The starting rotation for Philadelphia has been elite to start the season, as the five starters have all recorded at least one quality start and have seen a quality start in 58% of their games this season. It always helps when the two starters with the two highest ERAs are Aaron Nola (3.47) and Zack Wheeler (3.00). The bullpen has been ok to start of the season, but Jeff Hoffman, Yunior Marte, and Matt Strahm have 2.35 ERAs or lower. The offense isn’t underperforming, but Trea Turner seems to be the only player in the lineup who has gotten hot to start the year. Overall, the Phillies have seen the south side of the game total in 12 of their first 19 games to start the season.

Moneyline

Hot

New York Mets 8-2

After an 0-5 start, the Mets have finally woken up and have won five of their last six games. However, they are about to go face the Dodgers and Giants for a six-game road trip. It will be interesting to see how the pitching holds up against the Dodgers video game lineup. Despite their hot streak, the Mets are only 10-8 on the year and are 2.5 games behind the Braves.

Cold

Colorado Rockies 2-8

The White Sox are the worst team in baseball, on paper and according to their record. However, the Colorado Rockies started off terribly as well. They have lost five straight, as the offense managed to tally only 10 runs in that span and were shutout twice. Colorado’s pitching staff ranks 30th in the MLB with a 6.01 ERA, the next worst mark is the Houston Astros with a 5.24 staff ERA. There is a significant gap between the Rockies and the next worst pitching staff. In perhaps the toughest division in baseball with some of the best lineups, the Rockies pitchers are in for a long season. At 4-15, the Rockies already find themselves seven games behind the Dodgers in the division.

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