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Hot and Cold College Basketball Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 3/4/2024

by Joey House - 3/4/2024

College basketball hot and cold betting teams ATS and over under Zach Edey Purdue

The Madness has arrived. With apologies to college football's bowl season, March is the best month in collegiate sports. With the Atlantic Sun Tournament commencing on March 4th, the significance of the month swiftly accelerates as teams vie for coveted berths in the NCAA Tournament bracket, culminating in the bedlam of March Madness.

Recent Against the Spread (ATS) form holds significant importance heading into the college basketball post-season. Teams with strong ATS performances demonstrate their ability to not only win games but also cover the point spread, indicating a level of dominance that extends beyond mere victories. This form can provide valuable insights into a team's consistency, resilience, and ability to perform under pressure, all crucial factors in the intense environment of tournament play. Understanding and analyzing a team's ATS trends can help bettors and analysts alike make informed predictions and assessments as teams vie for success in the postseason.

Of course, you can be certain that the expert analysts at Doc's have been tracking all of the key metrics to give you the best chance of making your March Madness a profitable one.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Hot ATS teams

Duke: 23-6 SU, 17-11-1 ATS, 4-1 ATS last 5 games

The team that everyone loves to hate (unless you're a Duke fan, that is) is rounding into form. They currently occupy the 2nd-seed in the ACC with two games remaining, N.C. State and a regular season home finale against their arch-rival, North Carolina. The Blue Devils are 17-9-1 ATS as favorites, which they most likely will be in the next 2 games and their conference tournament.

Tennessee: 23-6 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 4-1 ATS last 5 games

The Vols are another team that appears to be peaking at the right time. They are riding a 6-game winning streak in which they covered the spread five times. This includes their most recent triumph, winning on the road at Alabama as a 4.5-point dog to secure sole possession of first place in the SEC. Tennessee hits the road to take on South Carolina and finishes at home against Kentucky. With a 10-6 ATS mark in the conference and top 20 rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency per Kenpom, the Vols have earned their league-leading status.

Cold ATS teams

Wisconsin: 18-11 SU, 11-17-1 ATS, 0-5 ATS last 5 games

The Badgers are a classic example of a team that has hit the wall. Through the first 20 games of the season, they were 16-4 and tied for first place in the Big Ten. Since then, they have imploded, going 2-7 SU and 0-9 ATS over their last nine contests. They host Rutgers before finishing the regular season at Purdue. This team is kryptonite right now and could very well be one-and-done in the Big Ten conference tourney, seriously hindering their chances of making the Big Dance. Bet on this team now only if you don't like money.

Virginia: 21-9 SU, 15-14-1 ATS, 1-4 ATS last 5 games

The Cavaliers are limping into the ACC Tournament, having gone 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. In true UVA fashion, their defense is top-notch, ranked 9th in Kenpom in efficiency and leading the nation in block percentage. Unfortunately, the offense isn't nearly as capable, which has led to some very "ugly" games, most notably a 49-47 victory over Wake Forest, where both teams 42.6% from the field and 26.5% from 3-point range. The Cavaliers had as many blocked shots (13) that game as points from 3's and free throws, combined. They finish off their regular season against Georgia Tech. And with a record of 1-3 ATS against ranked opponents and 1-2 ATS at neutral sites, betting against Virginia looks to be a good investment.

Hot Over Teams

Alabama: 20-9 SU, 21-8 O/U 4-1, O/U last 5 games

The Crimson Tides' offense has been rolling all season, leading the nation in scoring at 90.9 points per game. Part of that comes from great shooting (8th in the country at 57.0% effective field goal percentage) and a very high-paced offense, where they are 10th nationally with 75.8 possessions per game. Alabama saw the over cash in seven straight games before going under the total in their home loss to Tennessee. The average total in those 8 contests was 167.25. With the Crimson Tide posting a 10-3 O/U mark in nonconference games, and an 11-5 mark in conference, they are sure to be one of the more enjoyable games to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Purdue: 26-3 SU, 20-9 O/U, 4-1 O/U last 5 games

When you have the returning Naismith Player of the Year (Zach Edey), it's easy to see why Purdue would be an offensive force to be reckoned with. They're averaging 84.7 points a game on offense. However, their defense is allowing the 3rd-highest average (70.2 ppg) in the 18 seasons that head coach Matt Painter has been at the helm. They are 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency with 1.19 points per possession and 5th in offensive rebound percentage at 37.4%. They play the 6th-highest scoring offense in Illinois on Tuesday and close out with Wisconsin on Sunday, before getting a double-bye in the Big Ten tourney. With a 7-3 O/U record in games with a rest advantage and a 9-1 O/U mark in equal rest games, taking the over in Purdue's games in the post-season looks profitable.

Hot Under Teams

Vermont: 24-6 SU, 8-20 O/U, 1-4 O/U last 5 games

The Catamounts have been using their 8th-ranked defense (63.8 ppg) with a slightly less-than-average offense (ranked #231 at 70.9 ppg) to amass a 14-1 conference record and guaranteed No. 1 seed in the upcoming America East tourney. Due to a weak schedule (ranked 245th strongest in the nation), they'll have to win their conference tourney in order to keep the unders coming.

Villanova: 17-12 SU, 11-18 O/U, 0-5 O/U last 5 games

The Wildcats have been an enigma all season. Squarely on the tournament bubble at the moment, they have huge wins against North Carolina, Memphis, and Creighton. However, they were winless in the Big 5 (University of Pennslyvania, Drexel, and St. Josephs). They are similar to Vermont, with a scoring offense that is 243rd in the country (71.8 ppg) and a scoring defense that is 23rd (65.4). Villanova's unders are particularly profitable as an underdog, with a 3-6 O/U record. Caution must be used though because the Wildcats are leading the nation in free throw percentage, making close games at the end much more susceptible to the over. They have two regular season games remaining before beginning play in the Big East tourney. If they can defeat Creighton, at the Finneran Pavilion in Villanova, and make a deep run in their conference tourney, the Wildcats should be able to punch their ticket to the Madness and create some mayhem themselves.

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