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Hot and Cold College Basketball Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/4/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/4/2024

College basketball hot and cold ATS and over under Kam Jones Marquette Golden Eagles

As the college basketball season rounds out the nonconference tournaments and nonconference play as a whole, it is time to start paying attention to established trends. There are five teams who have successfully covered in every game this season, while there is just one squad who has yet to cover a game. There are three teams that have hit the over in every single game this season, with another three teams that have seen the south side of the game total in all of their games. And while some of these trends apply to mid-major schools, there have been some surprise starts within the power conferences, especially in the Big East, as we have seen two schools trending in either direction. Let’s see where the money is being made across the college basketball landscape.

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ATS

Hot

St. Bonaventure 7-0

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have been exceeding expectations this season and are 6-1 overall and have covered in every single game this season. They have been the favorites in every single game to this point in the season, except for their contest against Utah State, which was their only loss. However, nonetheless they covered the spread. The Bonnies have been playing strong defense this season, as they have held opponents to just 62.9 PPG, which is the third lowest mark in the A-10 and the 27th lowest mark in the nation. Their 8.9 SPG is the most in the conference, and they are allowing only 9.5 offensive RPG. The Bonnies next three opponents are a combined 13-11-1 ATS this season, and their third opponent is Providence, which could be a big win for St. Bonaventure as they look to build a resume worthy of the Big Dance.

Houston Christian (6-0), Oregon State (6-0), Grambling (5-0), and Idaho State (5-0) are the only other teams who have played in five or more games and covered in each one.

Cold

Grand Canyon 0-7

The Lopes are off to a 5-2 start overall, but that is far from an impressive start. They have failed to cover the spread in any of their games to start the season, and their nonconference schedule has been anything but tough. Grand Canyon is the only team in the nation that has yet to cover a game this season. Their biggest margin of victory was a 10-point victory over Cal State Fullerton to start the season, but the Lopes were 18.5-point favorites. They have a mere +3.5-point differential, which is indicative of their games continuously being close, even when Grand Canyon is the heavy favorite. They are allowing 76.2 PPG this season, which is the third highest amongst the WAC conference, and their perimeter defense is a huge weak spot, as the opposition is cashing in on 36% of their 3-point tries. The Lopes do play Life Pacific next, which should give them an easy cover, but then they have a tougher matchup against Georgia after that.

Game Total

Over

Akron 6-0

The Zips are one of three teams that has seen the over hit in all of their games this season. Hitting the over is an easy thing to do when you are averaging 83.6 PPG, a mark that ranks 45th in the nation and first in the MAC. They also rank in the Top 45 in the nation with a 38.4% 3P%, which also tops the MAC conference. They create a lot of second chance opportunities, as they, once again, lead the conference in offensive RPG (13.3). Now their defense is not great, but that is a perfect recipe for hitting the over. They are allowing 75.9 PPG, which is the fourth highest mark in the conference, and the opposition is shooting nearly 34% from deep. The rest of their nonconference schedule is pretty light, and they play in one of the weaker conferences, which means they should continue to put points up night in and night out.

North Florida (7-0) and Tennessee State (7-0) are the only other teams that have hit the over in every single game this season.

Under

Wake Forest 2-8

Wake Forest does not have the Under% as they have hit the under in 80% of their games, but their 80% mark is the best among power conference teams. Wake Forest was largely expected to be one of the few teams that could compete with Duke and UNC within the conference, and so far they have shown that they play some of the best defense in the country. They have three losses, all of which were by double-digits, to Xavier, #18 Florida, and #22 Texas A&M. However, in their seven wins, they are holding opponents to just 62.9 PPG. In addition to their stout defense, the Demon Deacons are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, as they are shooting just 25.2% from beyond the arc this season and just 41.3% from the floor. With great defense and inefficient shooting, Wake Forest is a dream under team.

East Texas A&M (0-6), Oakland (0-5), and Wagner (0-5) are the only teams who have seen the under hit in every single game this season.

Surprise Starts

#5 Marquette 8-0

For our positive surprise starts, we have the Marquette Golden Eagles, who have flown above expectations and now find themselves ranked fifth in the country. They are 8-0, with wins over #6 Purdue, Georgia, and a true road win against Maryland. They have one of the best point differentials in the country at +20.8 and are averaging 84.5 PPG this season. Kam Jones has shown out as expected to start the season and is leading the team with 19.6 PPG, 6.3 APG, and a 65.3% FG%. David Joplin has been an incredible compliment to Jones, as he is averaging 15.9 PPG and is leading the team with 6.0 RPG. Their defense has been solid, as they are limiting opponents to just 41.8% from the floor and under 30% from deep. The Golden Eagles still have some tough nonconference opponents ahead, like #6 Iowa State and #11 Wisconsin, but they are showing that they can compete despite the losses from last season.

#25 UConn 5-3

Now for the disappointing season start, we have the #25 UConn Huskies, who had a significant fall from grace after three straight losses at the Maui Invitational. The Huskies opened up the season with four incredible easy matchups. However, once they played against some tougher competition, they did not look like the same dominant team we have come to expect. They lost to Memphis in overtime, Colorado, and then were blown out by Dayton in a 18-point defeat. Their offense looked inconsistent in those games, and they averaged just 78.7 PPG compared to their 86.3 PPG average on the season. On paper, their numbers are a bit inflated thanks to their lesser opponents, but the Huskies have #15 Baylor, a true road game @ Texas, and #7 Gonzaga in back-to-back-to-back games, so we will see if the woes continue or if the Huskies are still a solid team.

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