Handicapping the NBA Title Odds for Western Conference Contenders

by Spencer Toth - 3/15/2024

Handicapping NBA title odds for Western Conference contenders Kawhi Leonard Los Angeles Clippers

There is no shortage of title contenders in the Western Conference, with a whopping 8 teams coming in with +3500 or shorter title odds. There are a pair of obvious contenders, reigning champions the Denver Nuggets (+350) and front-loaded LA Clippers (+500), who have emerged as the clear favorites, but there are still plenty of other teams capable of making waves. It’s hard to justify a multiple-month bet with such short prices, but at +2000 or +3000, it’s a much easier pill to swallow. One of the Western Conference underdogs will make a deep run in the postseason, and selecting which horse to back is the most critical decision you can make as the postseason approaches.

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OKC Thunder +2000

The Thunder have been one of the biggest surprises this season, and the future of this franchise could not be brighter. Not only do they sit atop the Western Conference standings with a starting lineup that is just 22.6 years old, but they have 15 first-round picks, and 16 second-round picks, in the next 5 years. The incredibly young lineup combined with incredible draft capital will ensure that the Thunder remain at the top of the standings for years to come. However, the question is whether or not they can turn that into tangible success this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to come second in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic, as the young Canadian is the most experienced member of the starting five at just 25-years-old. Chet Holmgren would be a slam dunk for ROY if it wasn’t for Victor Wembanyama, as the Gonzaga graduate is extremely effective on both ends of the court. Jalen Williams has also taken huge strides this season, scoring 19.2 PPG on a 45% clip from behind the arc. The Thunder are bursting with talent. And while I was all over them at +6600 pre-season, this price is no longer long enough to ignore the Thunder’s biggest weakness… size. Holmgren is 7-foot-1, but no other member of the Thunder getting meaningful minutes is over 6-foot-8. The lack of size hasn’t come back to haunt them in the regular season, but it’s difficult to imagine the Thunder besting mammoth teams like the Timberwolves, Nuggets, or Pelicans in a 7-game series. The Thunder will be competing for titles for the next decade, but they will get bullied out of the playoffs in the first 2 rounds thanks to their lack of size in what will be very physical basketball. A great regular season team, but OKC can’t be trusted in the playoffs.

Worth a sprinkle? No

Minnesota Timberwolves +2000

After years of mediocrity and disappointments, the Timberwolves finally have all the tools needed to make a deep playoff run. While Karl-Anthony Towns will likely be out for the remainder of the regular season due to injury, he should be able to reignite his interior partnership with Rudy Gobert by the time the playoffs roll around. The towering duo has led the Timberwolves to league's best defensive rating, and Gobert is the runaway favorite to capture his 4th DPOY award. The defense is not an issue for Minnesota, and this team’s postseason fate rests on the shoulders of Anthony Edwards and the other offensive producers. Edwards is not only scoring more than he has in his career (26.4 PPG), but he’s doing it with a much higher efficiency, all while on track for his career high in Assists (5.0). Edwards is critical to the Timberwolves offensive success, and there is no reason to doubt his ability to carry this team to a lengthy postseason run. The Timberwolves still have a solid chance at the West’s top seed and the home-court advantage that goes with it, and they are absolutely worth a few dollars at this sky-high price.

Worth a sprinkle? Yes

Phoenix Suns +2000

The Suns were expected to be the next super team after acquiring Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal to join Devin Booker in the desert. Between injuries, blown leads, and a lack of chemistry, the Suns have been unable to live up to the hype and currently find themselves in the play-in tournament positions. It would be foolish to doubt Durant in the postseason, as the underrated scorer needs just an inch of space to drain a jump shot over any NBA defender. However, I will absolutely doubt Phoenix. Durant has been able to stay surprisingly healthy this season, but even a healthy Suns roster will end up falling short on their way to the Finals. A lack of defensive grit from Phoenix will see them get bullied in what looks to be a physical postseason, and this price isn’t long enough to make a bet; even with healthy future Hall of Famers. It’s time to blow things up in Phoenix, as things have never really clicked, despite all the talent.

Worth a sprinkle? No

LA Lakers +2700

Any time the greatest scorer in league history gears up for a playoff run, all eyes will be tuned in. Lebron James is in his 21st NBA season. And despite the Lakers precarious position in the play-in tournament, James has all he needs to lead the Lakers to another NBA Championship. There has been no shortage of disappointments in LA this season, as injuries to key role players such as Christian Wood, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Gabe Vincent have left the Lakers short handed down the stretch. However, just as we saw in the in-season tournament, when the Lakers get all hands on deck, and keep their focus, they are not a team anyone wants to stand in front of. The Lakers lack of regular season success comes down to a lack of motivation. LA knows they will be in the postseason. And while jockeying for seeding is important, they are more concerned about the welfare of their players. Between James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers have the scoring, and defense, needed to make yet another deep playoff run. There will be no shortage of motivation in the postseason, and I will happily grab LA at this +2700 price.

Worth a sprinkle? Yes

Dallas Mavericks +3000

The Mavericks will always be among the postseason threats as long as they have Luka Doncic on their roster, and this season is no exception. Doncic continues to exceed his lofty expectations, pulling ‘Luka Magic’ out on a nightly basis. An MVP award is all but inevitable for the Dallas star, and the Mavericks have an underrated lineup heading into April. Doncic will continue to defy the odds, and Kyrie Irving has been focused on the court since joining the Mavericks. The duo brings all the scoring needed to make a deep run, and the Dallas interior defense has been solid, too. Dereck Lively has been reliable in the paint, and Daniel Gafford was a fantastic trade deadline acquisition. It’s a very crowded Western Conference, so Dallas will be forced to gut out 3 tough series on route to the Finals, but they hold plenty of value to do so. At this price, it certainly feels like this could be the year Doncic takes the next step in the postseason.

Worth a sprinkle? Yes

Golden State Warriors +3500

All good things must come to an end, and this Warriors dynasty is on its final legs. What the trio of Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Steph Curry have achieved in a Warriors uniform is unmatched, but it’s now time for a shifting of the guard. Golden State is clinging on to the 10th seed, and the final play-in spot that goes with it, and they’ve looked like a shadow of their former selves throughout the year. The management has refused to sell young talent in an attempt to keep the golden age going, and the Golden State veterans have few good days left to look forward to. Curry has looked just as good as he did 10 years ago, but a lack of scoring support has the Warriors with a slim chance of doing anything tangible this season. They are mediocre on offense, mediocre on defense, and have an understandably mediocre spot in the standings. The Warriors should have much longer odds based on who’s on the court and are only being considered outside contenders thanks to their previous accolades. Hard pass from me.

Worth a sprinkle? No

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 11:59 PM
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Handicapping the NBA Title Odds for Western Conference Contenders

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