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Handicapping the NBA Title Odds for Eastern Conference Contenders

by Spencer Toth - 3/15/2024

Handicapping NBA title odds for Eastern Conference contenders Tyrese Maxey Philadelphia 76ers

There are few better feelings than carefully selecting an NBA title winner, sitting on the wager for a couple months, and collecting a solid payout at the conclusion of the NBA season. In the Eastern Conference, two teams have pulled away from the chasing pack, leaving juicy price tags available on their competitors. The Boston Celtics (+225) and Milwaukee Bucks (+700) have sat atop the Eastern Conference for months, but the pair are far from immortal. Can we justify a longshot bet on any of the chasing pack? Here are the sleeping giants in the Eastern Conference, and whether or not you should back them with your hard-earned cash.

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New York Knicks +3500

The Knicks have been a difficult team to accurately judge, as a string of injuries has prevented the desired starting lineup from suiting up together. New York has relied on a solid defense to compete with the league’s best teams in recent seasons, but that went out the window this year, resulting in a pedestrian 17-15 start to the season. The front office decided that changes had to be made, and they brought in defensive powerhouse OG Anunoby on the last day of 2023. Anunoby slotted in nicely with the rest of the Knicks, resulting in a league-best 14-2 record in January. However, injuries to Julius Randle and Anunoby saw the Knicks post a 5-10 record without the pair in February and early March. Flash forward to today, and Anunoby is back in the lineup, posting a 2-0 record since his return. The loss of their starters allowed the Knicks to develop the bottom half of their lineup over the last month. And if Randle and possibly Mitchell Robinson can return to the court before the postseason, this team can certainly compete with Boston and Milwaukee. Their defense has been incredible. And with solid playmakers such as Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo leading the charge on offense, the Knicks can truly take down anyone. Thanks to their poor run of form, the Knicks have ballooned from +1700 to +3500 in the last 6 weeks, and they are suddenly one of the best value bets in the league. New York will be hoping the saying ‘offense wins games, defense wins championships’ comes true, as there is no one in the East that can compete with them on the defensive end. It will be a gritty playoff run for New York, but they absolutely hold solid value at this price.

Worth a sprinkle? Yes

Philadelphia 76ers +3500

The 76ers have slipped down the standings since Joel Embiid has been sidelined with a left knee injury. He departed the lineup on January 30, and Philadelphia has gone just 7-13 without him. The reigning MVP is critical to the 76ers success, and there is absolutely no chance this team can compete without Embiid playing with almost 100% health. The 76ers elected to ship out James Harden in the opening weeks of the season, allowing Tyrese Maxey to take the reins as the lead guard. While Maxey is on pace for a career high 25.9 PPG, his overall efficiency has dropped significantly. His FG% is a career low 45%, and he’s been ineffective from behind the arc, shooting 38.3% from deep. While it’s understandable that his numbers have dipped slightly, as he’s now being tasked with taking tough shots late in the shot clock, it just goes to show that Maxey is not capable of leading this team to any tangible playoff success. Embiid is allegedly going to be returning before the postseason, but the often-injured Cameroon native will struggle to stay on the court. He’s clearly rushing back from this injury, and the 76ers are desperately holding onto a playoff spot after slipping into the play-in tournament positions. Even a fully healthy 76ers lineup will struggle against the Bucks and Celtics, and the current edition is closer to the Detroit Pistons than the Celtics. The 76ers will not even win a playoff series, let alone challenge for an NBA title. Hard pass from me.

Worth a sprinkle? No

Miami Heat +3500

The Heat have been an interesting team to follow. They have reached the NBA Finals in 2 of the last 4 seasons despite finishing as the 5th and 8th seed in those years, respectively. Miami, especially Jimmy Butler, turns it up to another level when the games matter most, and this is a mouthwatering price for such proven playoff contenders. Miami is once again languishing in 8th place, but you could argue that this is the best edition of a Heat squad since the LeBron James era. Terry Rozier is a valuable piece to give them depth at guard, and they have no shortage of shooters with Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Rozier, and Duncan Robinson all more than capable of splashing it in from deep. Inside, Bam Adebayo continues to be left on an island in the paint, but he keeps producing. Adebayo’s hook shot is becoming quite the weapon, and his 10.5 Rebounds per game is on track to become his career high. Just three games separate 4th and 8th in the standings, so it is still very possible the Heat improve their seeding and avoid the Bucks or Celtics in the first round. The reality is that the Heat have been doubted countless times in the past, yet they keep exceeding expectations. Erik Spoelstra knows how to get the best from his players in the postseason, and we are once again being offered an incredible price tag on a deep Heat playoff run. If you need any more convincing to ignore the standings and look at what the Heat have proven they can do, consider this. Butler has averaged 22.9 and 21.6 PPG over his last two seasons but scored 27.4 and 26.9 PPG in his last two playoff runs. Every title-winning NBA franchise needs a bonafide superstar. And Butler may not be one in the regular season, but there are few other guards any NBA team would want on their playoff roster over Butler. Miami may not have won either of their 2 recent Finals appearances. However, at +3500 odds, they hold immense value to get over that hump and win their first championship in a decade.

Worth a sprinkle? Yes

Cleveland Cavaliers +4000

The Cavaliers have a very young, ambitious roster, and there is no reason to doubt their playoff credentials. Donovan Mitchell has shown rapid growth in recent years, and the 27-year-old has been at his best since putting on a Cavaliers uniform 2 seasons ago. His 28.0 PPG with the Cavs has the fanbase very optimistic that the rest of their young lineup can get them the rest of the way there. However, something is missing in Cleveland. There is no doubting a starting lineup of Mitchell and Darius Garland on the outside, Max Strus at the 3, and towering big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the paint. Cleveland has the scoring depth, the defense, and the good chemistry needed to compete, but the lack of playoff experience has me doubtful they can take down the Bucks and/or the Celtics in a 7-game series. They’ve won just a single playoff game in the last 5 years. And expecting them to rattle off 16 wins against playoff-caliber opponents is a tall task. Cleveland has the lineup needed to beat up on bad teams, as reflected by their 25-5 record against sub-.500 teams. However, when the lights shine brightest, they’ve fallen short, going 17-19 against teams with winning records. There will be tangible playoff success in the Cavaliers future, but it will not be coming this season. There are better options for an Eastern Conference longshot, as the Cavaliers lack the grit, and experience, needed to make a deep run.

Worth a sprinkle? No

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