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Free Soccer Picks for Saturday 1/27/2024 from Europe Leagues

by Joey House - 1/26/2024

Barcelona Soccer

Welcome to Corner Kick, Doc’s Sports' breakdown of the European soccer scene. We'll break down a handful of games and hopefully enlighten some of the less knowledgable fans until they reach "punter" status, an English term for knowledgable bettor.

This week, I'm going to highlight the subtle differences that could make the difference when you begin to handicap.

In American sports (for the purpose of this discussion, American soccer is lumped in with worldwide soccer and their standards), because we're such gracious hosts, schedule makers list the road team first. In soccer, it is the exact opposite, with the home team getting top billing. When you're looking at soccer fixtures (schedules), keep this in mind.

When listing a team's record, it is customary in American sports to put the record in a win-lose-draw sequence. Soccer statisticians decided to stray from that norm and list their records in a win-draw-lose fashion. I can see the validity in this as in competitions, wins earn a team three points and draws net each team one, with a loss resulting in zero points awarded.

We started quite nicely last week, going 2-0 in our plays.

In a slightly bizarre scheduling quirk, there are no English Premier League matches until next Tuesday, so we will look the the German, Italian, and Spanish leagues this week.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

La Liga (Spain)

Barcelona (-275) vs Villarreal (+575) O/U 3.5

Saturday, Jan. 27th, 12:30 pm ESPN+ and Deportes

Barcelona is coming off a disappointing effort that saw them lose 4-2 on the road against Athletic Club in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey. They look to regroup against a struggling Villarreal team who is currently in 14th position in the La Liga table and beginning to flirt with relegation (only five points ahead of 18th Cadiz). Barca are heavy -310 favorites with Villareal +600 and a draw bringing back +475 and a total of 3.5 goals for the game. We'll be looking at Barcelona on the goal line, where they are currently -1.5 at -120. Villarreal is tied for the second-worst defensive goals-against with a sieve-like 42 goals in 21 matches played. In ten road matches this season, Villarreal has scored ten times but has conceded 20 goals while losing exactly half of their contests (2-3-5). Now they must travel that has been a den of horrors for them. In their last eight visits to Camp Nou, Villareal has won just once and lost the other seven matches. In those seven victories, Barcelona covered the 1.5-goal spread six times. Barca is also averaging 3.2 goals per match over their last ten contests at home. We look for Barca to take out some of their pain and anguish on the hapless Villarreal squad.

PICK: Barcelona -1.5 goals (-120)

Bundesliga (Germany)

Bayer Leverkusen (-375) vs Borussia Monchengladbach (+750) O/U 3.5

Saturday, Jan. 27th, 12:30 pm ESPN+

Leverkusen (15-3-0) is now the only undefeated team in major Continental competition. Having said that, they are only four points ahead of perennial power Bayern Munich. Bayer has the second-most prolific scoring unit in the Bundesliga, having netted 50 goals in their 18 tilts. They most likely have stars in their eyes as Borussia (5-5-8) has the second-leakest defensive squad, conceding 38 goals so far in league play. We will be focusing on a small same-game parlay (SGP) of Leverkusen to win on the money line and a Leverkusen team total of over 2.5 goals. M'Gladbach hasn't tasted victory over Leverkusen since 2019, going 0-1-8 over that four-and-a-half-year span. Then you also have Leverkusen's undefeated status, giving us supreme confidence in hitting the first leg. For the other half, we find that Bayer has scored three or more goals in 12 of their 18 Bundesliga games. Combining the two wagers gives us a payout of -120 on Draftkings, allowing us to make a healthy play. If you wanted to get a little more aggressive, you could swap out the team total and put in the game over 3.5 which would give you plus money (+110) for your return.

PICK: SGP Leverkusen to win on the ML and team total over 2.5 (-120)

Serie A (Italy)

Juventus (-375) vs Empoli (+850) O/U 2.5

Saturday, Jan. 27th, noon Paramount Plus

We go to Serie A for our final match and find the league-leading Juventus side hosting the second-to-last Empoli squad. Empoli finds itself in a bad spot, currently in the relegation zone and going to the fortress this season that is Allianz Stadium. Juvy has only conceded four goals in their ten home fixtures. Empoli has won relatively recently on the road against Juventus, notching a 2-1 victory at the beginning of the 2021-22 campaign. As it is in most of Juventus's head-to-head histories, Juvy leads this one 19-3-3. The way this is priced, it looks as though the oddsmakers are expecting Juventus to keep a clean sheet, with the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) odds set at +220 for yes and -320 for no. Using this as a guide, we'll recommend taking Juventus -1.5 goals (-110). Juvy is on a 16-match unbeaten streak in Serie A. Their home form is excellent, registering eight wins in ten tries. We've already alluded to Fortress Allianz and the six clean sheets out of ten home matches back up that claim. Juvy manager Massimiliano Allegri made a tactical change a third into the season and it's resulted in better positioning and more accurate shots for Juventus's attacks. Juvy has already had a streak this season of six consecutive shutouts and is currently on another two-game stretch of clean sheets. With Internazionale Milan breathing down their necks in the league table (one point behind), Juventus needs to ensure they pick up these easy three points, so I don't expect them to go into a shell after getting their first goal.

PICK: Juventus -1.5 goals (-110)

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