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Free Picks for Tuesday NIT Matchups

by Joey House - 3/19/2024

Free NIT picks for Tuesday Quincy Olivari Xavier Muskateers

There are currently 362 NCAA Division I teams in the country, so for every favorite or Cinderella who attends the "Big Dance", there are over 5 potential fairy tales whose slippers didn't fit quite right or their nasty aunt didn't let them out of the conference. However, for 32 other teams, there is a consolation prize in the form of the NIT.

Where there's money to be made in the world of sports betting, you can be sure Doc's has an eye on it. We'll look at each game and give you our expert opinions on every side and total.

One of the difficulties in handicapping the NIT is the danger of apathy. While the NIT used to be the more prestigious of the post-season tournaments, in the modern era it has been relegated to a very definite "also-ran" tourney. Last year, North Carolina decided to forgo playing in the second-tier tourney. This season, seven different schools, highlighted by Memphis and Oklahoma, refused their invitations. While I understand being disappointed in not playing in the Big Dance, the NIT can be a powerful springboard for the following season. Seven schools that played in the 2023 NIT are now in the 2024 NCAA tourney. Please allow me to step off of my soapbox now and continue handicapping.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Tuesday, March 19th

North Texas @ LSU (-2.5/135.5) 7 pm (EST): One of the interesting dynamics of the NIT is for the first two rounds, the higher-seeded team hosts the game, which literally brings a little March Madness to college campuses across the country. North Texas is the defending NIT champs, but couldn't use last year's magical postseason run to catapult to the next level. The Mean Green are below average on offense (69.1 ppg/294th of 362) but stellar on D, surrendering just 63.1 ppg, tenth in the nation. LSU's offense isn't great (76.3 ppg/100th of 362), but it is better than what North Texas is accustomed to. LSU wins to advance to the next round in an ugly game. PICK: LSU -2.5 (3-units) BEST BET: UNDER 135.5

Boston College @ Providence (-3/138) 7 pm: Providence was a bubble team that got screwed when their name wasn't announced on Selection Sunday. Hopefully, they use that frustration to play their best game. The Friars have a 3-headed monster with guard Devin Carter and forwards Josh Oduro and Bryce Hopkins. Together, the trio combine for 51.3 ppg and 24.8 rpg. Boston College has a seven-foot senior Quinten Post, who rules the post (17.0 ppg/8.2 rpg/58 blocks). This should be a close game throughout, and both teams shoot from long-range well. We believe Providence will eventually prevail but our play will be the over 138. PICK: OVER 138 (3-units) Providence to win

Xavier @ Georgia (-1.5/152.5) 7 pm: Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the country in defensive rating. Georgia has some impressive depth, as their roster has seven players that average 7.3 ppg or more. Xavier will have the best player on the court in guard Quincy Olivari, a transfer from Rice who was born and raised in Atlanta. Olivari shoots 43% from the field and 41.6% from long-range and averages 19.4 ppg. Full disclosure, I'm a big Sean Miller fan from his playing days at Pitt. Try as I might, however, I keep getting back to the fact that the Bulldogs' depth in the postseason will allow them to keep fresher legs, and with home-court advantage, I think eventually the Musketeers just wear down. PICK: Georgia -1.5 (2-units)

Cornell @ Ohio State (-10.5/155) 7 pm: In the middle of February, the Buckeyes fired 6-year head coach Chris Holtman after going from 12-2 to 14-11 and promoted Jake Diebler to head coach. Ohio State responded by knocking off No. 2 Purdue in the first game for their new head coach. They ended the regular season on a 4-game winning streak and then defeated Iowa in the Big Ten Tourney, before falling to eventual champion Illinois 77-74. Cornell turns their basketball games into track meets and shoots a lot of 3's...A LOT !! The Big Red's 29.6 attempts from 3-point land are the 6th-most attempts, per game, in the country. They make a fair amount as well, draining 10.3 3's (10th in the NCAA) for 34.7%. They move the ball quite well also, with 17.9 assists a contest, 8th in the nation. Like the rest of the Big Ten, the Buckeyes are a much better team at home, scoring an average of 78 points and allowing 68 points per game. But Cornell is adept on the road, scoring 80 points while giving up 77 a contest. The line of 10.5 is a little inflated, as the public will generally bet on the more well-known and popular team (most of the country probably has no idea where Cornell is located, only that Andy Bernard from "The Office" went there). I think that Ohio State advances but that Cornell cashes the ticket. PICK: Cornell +10.5 (3 units) Ohio State advances

Richmond @ Virginia Tech (-5.5/143.5) 9 pm: The Spiders feature a sticky defense, ranked 30th in the nation in points allowed with 66.1 ppg and 15th in the country in opponent FG percentage (40.3%). Even more impressive is Richmond's ability to take care of the rock, only allowing turnovers on 11.7% of their offensive plays which is 9th-best in the NCAA. They'll be taking on a Virginia Tech squad that has a very efficient offense, averaging 116.5 points per 100 possessions and 8th in the country in free throw shooting at 79.1 %. These in-state rivals have only played 3 times in the last 25 years, with the Hokies posting a 2-1 SU record but 1-2 ATS. The under, however, cashed all 3 times. PICK: Virginia Tech to win

Minnesota @ Butler (-3.5/148) 9 pm: The amazing covering Golden Gophers are giving the public at least one more chance to back them. The luster had worn off though for Minnesota, as they went 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last six games. After a thrilling 99-98 road victory at No. 13 Creighton, Butler also limped into the postseason with a 3-7 SU and ATS. Being a Big Ten fan, I would love to back the Gophers here but looking at their game logs over the past month, it looks as though they just ran out of gas. Throw in the fact that the game is at Butler and I think Minnesota's last gasp is a winner...for those who bet against them.

PICK: Butler -3.5 (2 units)

South Florida @ UCF (-5/140) 9 pm: If the fans of South Florida want to bitch about getting snubbed, they need to direct their complaints to the proper authorities. A poor strength of schedule that saw USF play ONE Quad One opponent gives you no wiggle room if you don't win the automatic qualifying conference tournament. UCF, meanwhile, plays exactly how you would expect a disciple of legendary Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski (UCF HC Johnny Dawkins started every game of a 133-game career over 4 seasons for Coach K): top 50 rankings in defensive field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and points allowed per game (67.5 ppg). The steals and blocked shots are even better (8.7 steals/game 23rd in the country and 5.1 blocks/game, 16th nationally). I question the Bulls' motivation in this spot but have no doubt Dawkins will have his boys ready for a scrap. BEST BET: UCF -5

Kansas State @ Iowa (-5.5/157) 9 pm: What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, the rest of the country was finding out what the Big 12 already knew, that the lil' dynamo Marquis Nowell was awesome. The Hawkeyes were having a typical Iowa year: finished the year right around 20 wins and lost in the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. This year these two teams get to share their disappointment together. Iowa has the 14th-highest scoring offense in the country and they're doing it the old-fashioned 2-point shot. They are 3rd in the country in 2-point field goal attempts and 4th in 2-point FGs made. They are 302nd in three-pointers attempted. The Wildcats are stout on the glass, grabbing 37.5 RPG, and also tough on defense, giving up the 31st-best field goal percentage at 40.8%. As much as I don't want to do so, I think that Iowa wins, as Kansas State is 0-8 SU in their last 8 road games. PICK: Iowa to advance

UC Irvine @ Utah (-7.5/148.5) 11 pm: We close the first night of NIT action with an interesting match. The Anteaters of UC Irvine out of the Big West will climb (literally) over 4,000 feet when they play Utah in Salt Lake City. Irvine has a top-75 offense and defense and they do it completely by shutting down shooting from long range. Defensively, they allow the 19th-fewest 3-point attempts at 17.7 and just 5.8 makes/game (23rd). Their offense is top 50 in free throw percentage, rebounds per game, assists, and 9th-best in 2-point field goals made a game at 22.6. The Utes are the opposite, as they shoot many 3s a game (24.9) and hit 8.9 of them at a 35.8% clip. They rank 35th in rebounding but struggle at the foul line (64.9% which is 348th in the country). Utah likes to run a fast game and that suits Irvine just fine. UCI has a diverse international roster with players representing 3 different countries and a lot of experience with 7 seniors. We think Irvine can pull the upset but even if they don't, we feel they'll keep it close enough to the number to cover. PICK: UC Irvine +7.5 (2 units) The Anteaters to advance as well.

Summary

I generally do not like to take so much chalk, but the numbers are supporting the leans. The higher-seeded teams really have an advantage in the first two rounds by playing their games on their home court. This year, seemingly more than ever before, teams have struggled outside of the friendly confines of their arena. We'll see after tonight if we are on the right track or not.

BEST BETS (5 UNITS)

North Texas-LSU UNDER 135.5

UCF -5 over South Florida

3 UNITS

LSU -2.5 over North Texas

Cornell +10.5 over Ohio State

2 UNITS

Georgia -1.5 over Xavier

Butler -3.5 over Minnesota

UC-Irvine +7.5 over Utah

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