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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/5/2024

by Spencer Toth - 3/5/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks Dejounte Murray

Throughout the NBA season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single Knicks game and giving out best bets in the process. We will sometimes be forced to back their opponents, but the long-term goal is to churn a profit by the season’s end.

On Thursday night, the Knicks suffered their second straight double-digit home defeat, falling to the Warriors 110-99. Jalen Brunson led the way with 27 points, but the Knicks shot just 37% from the floor and 70% from the charity stripe. New York’s inability to generate good looks on a consistent basis is starting to catch up to them, as they dropped 7 of their last 9 games.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. We correctly called that the Warriors would have an easy time covering the -4.5 point spread, but we whiffed on Donte DiVincenzo’s 3 point shots. I said the following “I have no doubt he’ll be jacking up 10+ attempts tonight, and as long as he is average from behind the arc, this prop should cash with ease.” He did shoot 12 3’s but only sank 2 of them, leaving us with a rare negative night.

The Knicks were able to bounce back on Sunday night, earning an impressive 107-98 road victory against the Cavaliers. However, there was no champagne in the locker room, as the mood was soured by a first-minute injury to Brunson. The Knicks All-Star went down clutching his knee. And while it appears he was able to avoid serious injury, it is still not ideal for New York. Josh Hart’s triple double and DiVincenzo’s 27 points were enough to get the win, as New York played solid defense to cling on to their 4th place seed.

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Tonight, the Knicks (36-25) are slight home favorites against the Atlanta Hawks (26-34). Let’s address the elephant in the room before we get into the Hawks breakdown. OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson all remain out, and Brunson is questionable for tonight’s matchup. Four of the five starters for New York are injured, leaving rotation players being tasked with 10+ shots per game. New York can compete against a Trae Young-less Hawks team, but any top half team will be able to overpower them on a nightly basis.

Atlanta is currently sitting in 10th place in the East, 2 games up on the Brooklyn Nets for the final play-in tournament position. After three straight playoff appearances, including a conference finals appearance against the Bucks, Atlanta was expected to comfortably make the playoffs once again this year. However, things have not gone to plan, and Atlanta is once again stuck in mediocrity.

The recent injury to Young has just amplified their current issues. And considering he won’t be back until the final few games of the season, the supporting cast will need to step up in his absence to keep their season alive. All eyes will turn to Dejounte Murray, who will need to pick up the slack. Murray came to the Hawks last offseason. And in his year and a half with Atlanta, he’s been unable to replicate his numbers from his days with the Spurs. Of course, he has to share the rock more with his better teammates, but his inexplicable decline in efficiency has prevented the Hawks from taking that next step forward. With Young on the sidelines, Murray will become the lead ball handler, which will help him get his assist numbers back into double digits. There are still a few shooters healthy in Atlanta, and Murray has the skills needed to generate open looks for his teammates. One of those shooters is Bogdan Bogandovic, who will be squaring off against his brother, Bojan Bogdanovic. Both Bogdanovic brothers can rain it down from deep, posting 38.4 and 39.5 clips from behind the arc in their respective careers. Bojan will be required to play a bigger role than he’s used to with the rash of injuries for the Knicks, and with a few of the stars on the sidelines this brotherly matchup will make the game worth watching for casual NBA fans.

The Hawks are slight underdogs, and it’s really hard to argue with that line. While Brunson’s status will go a long way in determining the outcome, the oddsmakers clearly think he’ll be suiting up or this line would be a lot closer to even. While the Knicks certainly lack the firepower to put up boatloads of points, they have all the grittiness needed to take advantage of a fragile team like the Hawks. Murray will be able to excel in his elevated role. However, without Young running the point, the Hawks offense will be unable to consistently pick apart a gutty Knicks defensive unit. Once you factor in that the Hawks are a league worst 19-41 ATS this season, we really don’t need a second invitation to fade the consistently overvalued Hawks. Lay the 3 points with the Knicks at home.

The second bet for the evening is certainly my most confident one, and that is Dejounte Murray over 7.5 Assists. Murray averaged 9.2 assists in his final season with the Spurs, thanks to the fact he was the primary ball handler. The injury to Young has put him back into the playmaking role, and he’s proven time and time again that he will give up contested shots if he sees an open teammate. In the 4 games since Young got injured, Murray has put up 11, 11, 5, and 11 assists. There is no reason to expect this trend to change, and we will not only be tailing Over 7.5 Assists at -130 odds, but also 10+ assists at +210 odds. Murray will be able to set up his teammates. And as long as his shooters knock down their open looks, he should have no issues surpassing this total.

Pick: New York Knicks (-3) 2 Units

Pick: Dejounte Murray Over 7.5 Assists -130 4 Units

Pick: Dejounte Murray 10+ Assists +200 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 10-4

Spread Record: 19-14

Total Record: 12-10

Player Props Record: 16-28

Total: 57-56 

Up 4.8 Units

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