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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/8/2024

by Spencer Toth - 2/8/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks Luka Doncic

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game, and providing best bets along the way. By using my knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to generate consistent profits throughout the season.

On Tuesday night, the Knicks rebounded nicely after having their 9-game win streak snapped, beating the Memphis Grizzlies 123-113 at home. Every win counts the same, but if the Knicks walked away with anything other than a comfortable victory, it would have been concerning. New York was able to take advantage of the extensive injury list Memphis has, as Donte DiVincenzo led the way with 32 points, shooting 12/18 from the floor. Memphis shot a sizzling 57% from deep, allowing them to make things interesting down the stretch, but the Knicks were in full control for most of the contest, taking a 24-point lead into halftime.

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From a betting perspective, we had yet another positive night. We unloaded the clip, laying 4 units on Jalen Brunson’s under. We correctly identified that in a blowout situation, there was a good chance Brunson would be rested. Despite scoring 17 first quarter points, Brunson was able to stay Under his 32.5-point line, finishing with 27 points. A late injury sealed the deal in terms of the bet, but a minor ankle sprain for Brunson is the last thing New York needs with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby on the sidelines. We lost both the spread (-14.5) and total (Under 213), but they were both single unit bets, ensuring Brunson did the heavy lifting.

Tonight, the Knicks (33-18) welcome the surging Dallas Mavericks (28-23) to the historic Madison Square Garden. This matchup is extremely competitive on paper, but the injuries to the Knicks could see this one get out of hand early. It feels as though we were robbed of what could’ve been one of the games of the season, as with Randle and Anunoby on the sidelines, and Brunson questionable with an ankle injury, we won’t get to see these teams truly go toe to toe. 

Dallas has dealt with injuries of their own. However, now that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are back in the lineup, they have their eyes firmly fixated on the top of the Western Conference standings. Doncic leads the league with 34.5 PPG, a full 3 points over second place. His ability to score from all three levels, and the lack of reliance on his teammates to set him up, has turned him into the most lethal scorer in the league. Not only is he leading the league in PPG, but he’s third with 9.4 Assists, and 17th with 8.8 Rebounds per game. His scoring highlights will top the charts, but his incredible vision ensures his teammates get their fair share of shooting opportunities, too. Anunoby would’ve been licking his lips at the chance to slow Doncic down, and without him in the lineup, the Knicks lack the size and agility to handle Doncic in single coverage. In my opinion, Doncic deserves to be much higher in the MVP rankings, as he’s truly been the most valuable player in the league, putting countless heroic performances all season long.

Brunson is questionable to suit up for the Knicks. And considering how bad his sprain appeared to be on Tuesday, I don’t expect him to risk it tonight. This leaves a bulk of the offensive responsibility on the shoulders of DiVincenzo, which is not a position the Knicks want to be in. DiVincenzo has been red hot in the absence of his All-Star teammates and has scored 20+ points in 5 straight games, averaging 27.8 PPG in that span. His consistency from behind the arc is what has generated these points. However, like any 3 point specialist, he will be streaky with a higher usage rate. Even if DiVincenzo can match the output of future hall of famer Irving, that still leaves 30+ points from Doncic unaccounted for. And unless the MVP candidate has an off night, this one could get ugly quickly. Fortunately for New York, they’ve relied on their defense to pick up gutty wins since the calendar flipped to 2024, and they still have the same mentality, even with their offensive superstars sidelined. The Knicks have allowed just 101.7 PPG in their last 19 contests. And if they can keep the Mavericks hovering around the 110 mark, they will give themselves a chance to win down the stretch.

Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening. If Brunson is good to go, this becomes a very 50/50 contest, but unless he’s at 100%, I doubt he’ll be his usual self. Brunson relies on quick cuts to drive to the hoop. And if his ankle is compromised, and he plays, it will put the entire season in jeopardy for the Knicks.

Dallas is coming in as 4-point road favorites, which isn’t long enough for me to take a stab with the Knicks. New York has been solid at home, going 19-6 this season, but Dallas have been road warriors all season, posting a 14-10 record away from home. They are one of three teams with a better road record than home record, and they have consistently been able to win, and cover on the road. The Knicks defense has been immaculate, but let's not forget they gave up 124 points in a loss to the Mavericks on January 8, their most in 2024. Like many NBA teams, they have no answer for Doncic, and I expect the superstar to carry the Mavericks to a dominant win and cover on the road.

For the second bet of the night, we’ll take a Luka Doncic Double-Double at -250 odds. Doncic has been filling up the hoop consistently, but his work on the glass, and in the passing game, cannot be overlooked. I expect the Knicks to send a double team Doncic’s way more often than not, and there is no one better in the league at keeping his head up and finding the open man. He’s gotten a double-double in 7 of his last 9 games, and we’ll even take it a step further and also target Triple Double at +260 odds. Doncic’s ability to stuff the stat sheet will be on full display at the most famous arena in the NBA. And considering he’s gotten a Triple Double in 4 of his last 9, and there is a low chance this one turns into a blowout, these odds have me happily taking a shot on Doncic to have another big night.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks (-4) 3 Units

Pick: Luka Doncic Double-Double -250 2 Units

Pick: Luka Doncic Triple-Double +260 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 9-4

Spread Record: 14-14

Total Record: 12-8

Player Props Record: 14-23

Total: 49-49

Down 0.8 Units

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