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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/27/2024

by Spencer Toth - 2/27/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs New Orleans Pelicans Zion Williamson

Throughout the NBA season, Doc’s Sports is the place to get all your New York Knicks betting needs. On a nightly basis, we will be giving out spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props. While we may not always favor the Knicks, by using our knowledge on the team, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

Last night, the Knicks took down the Detroit Pistons 113-111 in controversial fashion. The Pistons were up one in the dying seconds, when a wild sequence went down at Madison Square Garden. Donte DiVincenzo threw the ball away, then clearly fouled Ausar Thompson without a call, and which eventually led to Josh Hart scoring the game winning layup. This was a game the Knicks could not afford to drop. And while it is worrying they needed a call like that to beat the lowly Pistons, a win is a win.

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From a betting perspective, we were in search of our 8th straight winning night and fell short in the cruelest fashion imaginable. The Pistons covered the +11 point spread with ease, but we lost our other two bets by the hook. The total ticked just over the 223.5 mark, and Simone Fontecchio finished with 12 points, one short of covering his 12.5-point line. With vengeance on our minds, we head into tonight’s matchup deadset on righting this wrong.

New York (35-23) doesn’t have to travel for the second leg of their back-to-back, as they welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (34-24) to town. The Pelicans have been able to stay mostly healthy this season, which has finally allowed them to begin to reach their potential. Prior to this season, Zion Williamson has played just 28.5 games per year for New Orleans in the 4 seasons with the franchise. It’s awfully difficult to develop a winning culture with the franchise cornerstone on the bench so frequently, and it’s no surprise the Pelicans are on pace for their best season since 2009. Williamson leads the team with 22.4 PPG, and his ability to score in tight is among the best in the league. Rounding out the ‘Big 3’ in New Orleans is Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum. Ingram has been dealing with injuries of his own over the last few seasons, and McCollum had a nasty lung infection that kept him on the sidelines for almost a full season. The pair of ball handlers compliment Williamson’s physical game nicely, and the Pelicans have found themselves in a position to make serious noise in the postseason. 

A healthy Pelicans squad is difficult to unlock, and a shorthanded Knicks unit will have their hands full if they are expecting to make it back-to-back wins. New Orleans has won 8 of their last 11 games and appear dead set on a top 4 seed out West. The Knicks may have the slightly better record. However, with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby still out with injuries, there is no doubt who will be rolling out the better team tonight.

The Knicks have managed to stay afloat with Randle and Anunoby, going 6-6 since the pair both got injured on January 27th. Jalen Brunson has stepped up when his team needs him most, and the emergence of DiVincenzo as a reliable second option has allowed New York to cling onto their 4th place seed. However, with the Pelicans, Warriors, and Cavaliers on the horizon, New York will need to find a way to win at least one of those matchups or they’ll slide down the standings.

Tonight’s game has a 2.5-point spread in favor of the Pelicans, and I will be absolutely hammering New Orleans. The game will be going down in New York, which is the only reason New Orleans isn’t a bigger favorite. However, considering the Pelicans have identical home and road records (17-12), I have no fear of taking New Orleans to pick up a road win. On the interior, Williamson will be able to bully down Isiah Hartenstien. Hartenstein rarely picks up 5+ fouls, which is especially important with Mitchell Robinson on the shelf. However, it can occasionally result in easy shots for his opponent. Williamson doesn’t need a second invitation to get physical down low. And if Hartenstein is unable to stand his ground, it will be a long night in the paint for the Knicks. On the perimeter, the Knicks match up nicely against the Pelicans, as they’ll be able to use their superior ball movement to generate open looks from deep. Ingram will be a problem for the Knicks shorter guards, and the size of New Orleans will be the difference-maker. Joining Williamson inside is Jonas Valanciunas, and I frankly don’t know how the Knicks will be able to put up a fight inside. Precious Achiuwa will be called upon, but he’s only reliable for about 30 minutes per game, leaving the Knicks without many other options. Once you factor in the fact that this is a back-to-back for the Knicks, and that the Pelicans have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two, the (-2.5) point spread in favor of the Pelicans becomes a must bet tonight.

Nest up is the total. The line is coming in at 218.5 points, and I have no choice but to take the Over here. The Pelicans dominance inside will result in the Knicks jacking up plenty of 3’s, which will see the score tick up with quick possessions. New Orleans will be able to go to the paint whenever they please, and while their interior defense is what is keeping this total low, I don’t expect the Knicks to get into the paint very often on offense. Both of these teams are better defensively than going forward, but considering the low total, and the mismatch in strengths, I'm expecting this one to just tick over.

Pick: New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) 4 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Pelicans Over 218.5 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 10-4

Spread Record: 17-14

Total Record: 12-9

Player Props Record: 16-26

Total: 55-53

Up 3.3 Units

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