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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/12/2024

by Spencer Toth - 2/12/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets Dillon Brooks

You’ve found the right place for all your New York Knicks betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every Knicks game all season long. While we won’t always favor the Knicks, by using my knowledge on the team, we will be able to come out in the green by the season’s end.

On Thursday night, the Knicks were swatted aside by the Dallas Mavericks, by a score of 122-108. Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson all missed the game, and Isiah Hartenstein went down with an achilles injury in the first half. A shorthanded rotation was thoroughly outplayed by MVP candidate Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Solid rebounding from New York kept the game closer than it should have been, and the reserves got plenty of minutes to prove they belong on the title contending Knicks.

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From a betting perspective, we strung together our 5th straight positive game. Our biggest play of the night was on Mavericks (-4), as I correctly predicted that Brunson wouldn’t suit up, and the Mavericks would make quick work of them at Madison Square Garden. We also nailed Luka Doncic double-double, and lost a single unit on triple double, after he fell 2 rebounds short of the feat.

The Knicks then dropped back-to-back games for the first time in 2024, losing to the Pacers on Saturday night. Indiana was able to pepper the Knicks from deep, sinking 14 3’s at a 48% clip. New York’s inability to defend the 3-ball cost them a victory, and they will be desperate to get back into the win column tonight.

The New York Knicks (33-20) sputtered to a 3-3 record during their 6-game home stand, and they head back on the road tonight when they visit Houston to take on the Rockets (23-29). Houston has been a team I’ve had my eye on all season long, as their combination of blossoming youngsters and seasoned veterans has them ready to compete for a play-in position. In the backcourt, Fred VanVleet (out tonight with a strain) and Dillon Brooks have been able to show leadership for a young Houston team. They are the only 2 players in the top 7 for Houston over the age of 22, and the impact the duo has had on the team cannot be overstated. In the frontcourt, Alperen Sengun leads the way for Houston, topping the team in PPG (21.3) and Rebounds (9.3), while chipping in 5 Assists. The offense has been able to effectively run through Sengun, as his play in the screen game with VanVleet has led to countless easy shots. Houston got off to a hot start to the year, and sat at 18-16 just over a month ago. However, they've since gone 5-13, and find themselves slipping down a very competitive Western Conference standings. One of the factors is that 12 of those 18 games were played on the road, and the home/road splits for the Rockets couldn’t be more alarming. They are a solid 18-9 at home, but have the second worst road record in the league sitting at 5-20. After dropping 4 straight on their recent road trip, Houston will be hopeful they can take advantage of a shorthanded Knicks team, and make up some ground in the playoff race.

Most NBA teams would be unable to stay competitive if they had the injuries the Knicks have right now. Robinson has been out for months, Randle and Anunoby are dealing with month long injuries, and Brunson narrowly avoided a serious ankle sprain last week, only missing a pair of games. In their absence, Donte DiVincenzo has stepped up admirably. He’s averaged 27 PPG across his last 7 contests, and his partnership with Brunson in the backcourt has turned the Knicks into serious title challengers. At the trade deadline, New York bolstered their lineup even further, adding Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks in exchange for a variety of bench players, and a couple draft picks. Bogdanovic is a reliable 3-point shooter, shooting 41.3% from deep in the last 2 seasons, despite having very little offensive help on the Pistons. He’s a great offensive option for New York, and will slot in nicely to their lineup.

There is no doubt this trade makes New York better, as when healthy, they have someone like Josh Hart or Precious Achiuwa rounding out their 9 man rotation. The depth in the Knicks lineup combined with the All-Star caliber starters and lockdown defense has New York among the top teams in the East. They have their eyes set on reaching the 3rd round for the first time since 2000, and securing a top 3 seed to avoid the Celtics is absolutely critical for New York. 

In tonight’s matchup, the Knicks are coming in as 4.5 point road favorites, and this is simply a line I cannot get behind. The Rockets are a dominant team at home, and while it can feel nervy ignoring half of their games this season, this team is truly a completely different unit at home. They are a dominant 18-9, while the Knicks are just 14-12 away from MSG. The injuries to New York will be far more impactful than the absence of VanVleet, and I’ll take a stab with the free points available with the Rockets tonight.

For the second bet of the night I’ll grab Over 19.5 points with Donte DiVincenzo. The arrival of Burks and Bogdanovic could eat into DiVincenzo’s playtime, but the Villanova graduate should still get plenty of chances to make impactful offensive contributions. DiVincenzo has scored 20+ in 6 of his last 7 games, only failing to do so last time out against the Pacers. This line feels pretty soft considering the volume of 3’s he jacks up on a nightly basis, and with Brooks occupied with Brunson, DiVincenzo will have a favorable defensive matchup for a majority of the contest.

Pick: Houston Rockets (+4.5) 1 Unit

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 19.5 Points 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 9-4

Spread Record: 15-14

Total Record: 12-8

Player Props Record: 15-24

Total: 51-50

Up 1.7 Units

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