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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/3/2024

by Spencer Toth - 12/3/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Franz Wagner Orlando Magic

The New York Knicks have an enormous NBA Cup matchup against the Orlando Magic tonight. Both teams are 3-0 in the Cup, and the winner of this game will finish on top of the group. New York has begun to build serious chemistry on their roster, and NBA Cup games with a playoff-like intensity could prove valuable to their championship aspirations. This is one of the biggest games of the regular season for New York, and you have found the right place for your free best bets. 

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The Knicks took care of business against the Hornets on Friday night, overcoming an early deficit to squeak out a 99-98 victory. A late LaMelo Ball scratch played a big role in their win, as it allowed the Knicks to get the stops they needed down the stretch. Jalen Brunson led the way with a 31-6-6 stat line, as the Knicks showed grit in what was a must-win game. 

From a betting perspective, we went 0-1. LaMelo Ball being scratched played a major factor in the Over not cashing, and his player prop was void. 

The Knicks faced a serious trap game situation on Sunday, but demolished the Pelicans for their 7th win in the last 9 games. New York won the first half 57-28 and continued to pour onto their lead in the third quarter. Mikal Bridges had his best game in a Knicks uniform with 31 points, and the massive Knicks lead allowed Tom Thibodeau to give the reserve players some much needed minutes on the court. 

Tonight, the New York Knicks (12-8, 3-0 in the NBA Cup) take on the surging Orlando Magic (15-7, 3-0 in the NBA Cup). Orlando started off the year 3-2 but then lost star player Paolo Banchero for several months. Banchero’s absence was expected to derail the Magic’s aspirations, but their young core has stepped up in a big way. Orlando has gone 12-5 since his injury, including three double digit NBA Cup victories. Thanks to their point differential, the Magic will still advance with a loss as long as it is not by 30+ points. Orlando will be motivated to qualify as the top team in East Group A, and this game counts towards the regular season standings so there is still plenty to play for. 

There are two major factors as to why the Magic have thrived without Banchero. The first is the emergence of Franz Wagner. Wagner was always a big part of the Magic rotation, but his offensive contributions were always overshadowed by Banchero. Now that Wagner is the primary option in Orlando, he has erupted for 23.4 PPG with 5.9 assists. While these aren’t earth-shattering numbers, the Magic’s slow pace of play allows them to score just 108 PPG as a team, by far the lowest of anyone with a winning record. 

The second reason as to why Orlando is thriving is their defense. Orlando is allowing 102.3 PPG this season, more than 7 points lower than any other Eastern Conference team. Jalen Suggs has been the most influential player, but the Magic’s defensive superiority has come from the whole team rather than a single player. They allow an NBA low 10.3 second chance points per game, and are suffocating in the paint with their 42.7 paint points allowed and 7.0 blocks per game both second in the league. 

New York will have their work cut out for them on the offensive end, but they are marching out a strong defensive unit of their own. Josh Hart and Suggs are virtually carbon copies of one another, as they both bring defensive tenacity that can be felt whenever they are on the court. Orlando is frequently able to grind out defensive masterclasses against offensive-minded teams, but the well rounded nature of the Knicks side is a nightmare matchup for Orlando. They don’t have the depth to expose New York, and Wagner will be unable to match the output from Brunson and Towns for the Knicks. New York has a healthy starting five with five legitimate superstars on both ends of the court. Towns and Brunson have created an unstoppable pick-and-roll game for the Knicks. Both players are capable of making shots in the paint, in the open court, and from behind the arc. Suggs will look to disrupt the flow of New York, but it’s unimaginable to see both of these two staying quiet in a game with stakes as high as this one. 

For the first bet of the night, we will be taking the Knicks moneyline at -185 odds. New York is only favored by 4.5 points in this matchup, and even though they are at home this will still come down to the final few minutes. The Knicks have much more to lose in this game, and even without that fact they are still the better team. Orlando has been great without Banchero, but an easy schedule has made them look better than they are. The Knicks have been utterly dominant in recent weeks, and it’s hard to see them falling short when it matters most tonight. 

This game will be played at a snail’s pace, so the second bet of the night will be Under 215.5 points. Orlando has seen 10 of their last 13 games go under this mark, and a pair of strong defenses will allow no easy buckets. This will have a playoff-like atmosphere, and the total isn’t taking that into account. 

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -185 4 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Magic Under 215.5 2 Units

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