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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 12/11/2024

by Spencer Toth - 12/11/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Trae Young Atlanta Hawks

The NBA Cup knockout stages are here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the New York Knicks in their quest for the championship. All season long, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every New York Knicks weekday matchup while providing the best bets along the way. 

On Monday night, the Knicks took down the Toronto Raptors 114-109. Toronto had it tied with 30 seconds left, but a dagger 3-pointer from Karl-Anthony Towns stretched the lead to 5 with less than a dozen seconds to play. New York has now won 6 of their last 7 games, and after going a perfect 4-0 in the NBA Cup, they will be confident they can book their place in the semifinals. 

From a betting perspective, we lost an injury for the second straight game. The Raptors covered the +6 point spread and Towns hit the first rung on his three-point ladder, but our biggest play of the night missed causing us to go 2-2. Scottie Barnes was well on his way to 37.5 P+R+A, but a sprained ankle in the third quarter saw him depart and not return. The reads were all right, but a series of injuries have seen us plummet into the red over the last week. 

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Tonight, the New York Knicks (15-9, 4-0 in NBA Cup) welcome the Atlanta Hawks (13-12, 3-1 in NBA Cup) to Madison Square Garden. This quarterfinal appearance is the first in franchise history for the Hawks, while the Knicks were bounced from the NBA Cup at this stage last season at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks. Atlanta poses a unique challenge for the Knicks, as their fast pace of play could disrupt the rhythm New York likes to play with. All-Star Trae Young has no issues with pushing the pace, and his league-high 12.2 assists per game proves he is always playing with his head up. Trae Young and the Knicks have one of the most bitter rivalries in the entire NBA after Young squashed home the MSG crowd in 2021. Since then, every time the Hawks come to town, a “F*** Trae Young” chant erupts both inside and outside the arena. While I can’t deny my feelings towards Young align with the Knick fan base, I can still recognize what an incredible basketball player he has become. Young's 20.9 PPG is significantly lower than his previous totals from each of the last 6 seasons, but his 12.2 assists per game is on pace for the most in a season since John Stockton in 1992. His ability to lead the offense for the Hawks is second to none, as he can drive into the lane and kick out to the open man with incredible accuracy. First-overall pick Zaccharie Risacher has made an impact for Atlanta, but the reason for their dramatic turnaround this season has been Dyson Daniels. Daniels leads the league with 3.2 steals per game, a full steal more than the next closest player. In fact, second place Tari Eason is closer to 95th place Dalano Banton than he is to Daniels in the steal leaders. Daniels has been able to disrupt teams defensively and compensate for the lack of defense from his backcourt partner Young. 

The formula for beating the Hawks is quite simple. The Knicks will need to limit the effectiveness of Young on the offensive end and look to expose him on defense. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns run the best pick-and-roll game in the entire league, as their ability to space the floor leads to countless open shots. Daniels will look to get involved on Brunson as often as possible, but Clint Capela struggles at fighting through screens on the perimeter. The Knicks will look to draw Capela away from the hoop as often as possible to allow Towns to go to work inside. Towns’ 25.1 PPG with the Knicks is on pace for the second best season of his career, and his 13.3 boards per game are by far his highest, and the second most in the league. Towns has always been known as the center who can shoot threes but he now is getting open more than ever with the Knicks dynamic offense. The sample size is still only 22 games, but his 44.7% clip from behind the arc is truly remarkable. He is taking a similar number of attempts as he has earlier in his career, but he has been knocking them down with incredible efficiency to start the season. For the first bet of the night, we will be running it back with Karl-Anthony Towns over 1.5 three’s at -180, and over 2.5 three’s at +170. Towns had a worse line against the immobile Jakob Poeltl last game, and it’s not as if Capela does a better job at closing down the perimeter. Towns is still slightly hobbled with a knee injury, so expect him to spend time away from Capela and the hoop looking for a shot from deep. His enormous frame also lets him shoot over defenders, and the Hawks lack the length needed to disrupt his rhythm from deep. 

The point spread is set at 8 points in favor of the Knicks, but we will be playing it safe with the moneyline at -320 odds. This is a thick price to pay, but I have absolutely no doubt the Knicks will beat the Hawks at home tonight. Atlanta doesn’t do many of the little things right, and a disruptive Knicks defense will slow them down. Tom Thibodeau has no problem playing his starters 40+ minutes in a regular season game. And with the extra stakes of the Cup, it would be surprising to see them play anything short of that. Miles McBride, Precious Achiuwa, and Cam Payne have been great off the bench, but Thibodeau will ride his starting five as often as possible. New York feels as though they have a legitimate shot at making a run in the postseason, and the NBA Cup is the perfect place for them to get some valuable playoff-like minutes for their team who is still building chemistry. The Celtics have already been bounced from the tournament, giving the Knicks a clear path to the final if they can dispatch the pesky Hawks. 

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Three’s -190 4 Units

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Three’s +170 2 Units

Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -320 6 Units

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