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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/6/2024

by Spencer Toth - 11/6/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Trae Young Atlanta Hawks

You’ve found the right place for all your New York Knicks betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single Knicks weekday matchup this season. The picks have gotten off to a slow start to begin the year. However, after back-to-back winning seasons there is no doubt the winners will start flowing tonight. 

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On Monday night, the Knicks dropped back down to .500 with a road defeat against the Houston Rockets. New York lost the game 109-97, marking the first time the Knicks were held under 100 points this season. The starters were able to deliver buckets for New York, but their shallow bench was once again exposed by the Rockets depth. Houston outscored New York 30-3 in bench points, which has been a concerning trend for New York at this stage of the season. It’s not as if the Rockets shot particularly well from deep either, as they went just 8/33 from behind the arc. Jalen Brunson led the way for the Knicks with 29 points, but he still shot only 9/24 from the floor. 

Tonight, the New York Knicks (3-3) continue their road trip with a game in Atlanta against the Hawks (3-5). The Hawks have struggled defensively this season as the departure of DeJounte Murray has exposed their perimeter defense. It’s no secret that Trae Young is in the league for his offense over his defense. His inability to put up any resistance defensively has, and will continue to cost the Hawks victories this season. Atlanta has had a very easy schedule to start the year, yet they are still just 3-5. Their wins came against the Pelicans (3-5), Hornets (2-5), and the Nets (4-4). They already lost two games to the lowly Washington Wizards who are 0-4 against teams not from Atlanta. 

The Hawks will struggle defensively, but the explosive potential from Trae Young ensures they will always have a fighting chance. Young has averaged 23.9 PPG this season, but that number is dragged down by his abysmal 2 point showing against the Celtics on Monday night. His offensive impact goes further than scoring points, as he has dished out 12+ assists in 5/8 games this season. His 11 assists per game lead the league by a significant margin, as the entire Hawks offense runs through their point guard. 

It’s truly frightening to imagine what Jalen Brunson will be able to do against Young tonight. Brunson is starting to regain his MVP-like form after shaking off a slow start, and a matchup against Young gives him the potential for another massive night on offense. Brunson will be able to use effective ball handling skills to keep Young guessing tonight. He has no hesitation to pull up from behind the arc, he can finish in tight, and if the paint is crowded he has no problems sticking a mid range jump shot. The Hawks have been exposed defensively several times this season, and have allowed 120+ points in 6/8 games this season. 

The Knicks starting five is absolutely dominant, but the lack of depth has repeatedly come back to haunt them. Injuries to Mitchell Robinson, Cameron Payne, and Precious Achiuwa certainly give them an excuse, but New York cannot afford to keep dropping games if they consider themselves legitimate title challengers. Miles McBride is a reliable sixth man, but Jericho Sims and Tyler Kolek have no business getting meaningful minutes on a roster this talented. Workhorses like Brunson and Josh Hart can consistently give Tom Thibodeau 40+ minutes per game, but that is not something the Knicks can maintain over an 82-game season. 

While the Knicks shallow bench will hurt them against the top NBA teams, the Hawks don’t have the roster needed to expose New York tonight. Young is dealing with a nagging rib injury as the Hawks injury list continues to grow. Bogdan Bogdanovic has yet to play for Atlanta this season leaving Young as the sole offensive producer for the Hawks. He has been very generous with the ball so far this season, but I expect Young to get a bit greedier against the Knicks tonight. Hart and OG Anunoby do a great job at keeping their hands active by cutting passing lanes. Young is usually responsible with the basketball, but when he sees increased defensive resistance from the Knicks, he will elect to shoot rather than pass. Brunson is a solid defender, but he is still one of the weakest links for the Knicks. For the first pick of the night, we will take Young to shake off his 2 point showing on Monday by going over 24.5 points. 

There is no way Brunson will allow himself to get outplayed by Young, so we will also be targeting his point total of 28.5 points. Brunson was an MVP candidate last season and he will be able to pick apart Young’s horrendous defense tonight. Brunson can score from all three levels, and this line is way too low for this matchup. After falling short in the first four games of the season, Brunson has surpassed this total in back to back games. This is probably the last time we will get a sub 30 point total, and the over is absolutely the play here. 

Finally, after Brunson and Young fill up the hoop, the fast pace of play will allow the game total to tick over the 226 point line. Both guards will find early success at spreading the floor and rarely coming away with empty possessions. Young will look to score against Brunson tonight, but he will still rack up assists with his stellar vision on the offensive end. Atlanta will be able to expose the Knicks bench when fatigue forces rotation, but the Knicks will pound the ball into the hoop all night long. The Hawks abysmal showing against the Celtics was the first time a game hasn’t gone over the 226 point total this year for Atlanta, and this is the perfect time to hop back on the Over against the Knicks. 

 

Pick: Trae Young Over 24.5 Points 4 Units

Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 28.5 Points 6 Units

Pick: Hawks vs Knicks Over 226 4 Units

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