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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/27/2024

by Spencer Toth - 11/27/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicappong Josh Hart

Don’t look now, but the Knicks have won five of their last six games and are suddenly back near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Their starting five has been rolling while their bench players have been able to deliver solid performances when called upon. All season long, Doc’s Sports will be providing the best bets for every New York Knicks weekday game.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

On Monday night, the Knicks had their best performance of the season in their 145-118 smackdown against the Denver Nuggets. New York built a 23-point first half lead but didn't take their foot off the gas as they went on to win the third and fourth quarters too. Nikola Jokic had a quiet game as Karl-Anthony Towns was able to clamp down on the three-time MVP. While New York’s ability to slow down Jokic certainly played a role in their massive win, it was their offensive explosion that carried them over the line. OG Anunoby erupted for a career high 40 points while shooting 5/7 from behind the arc. Towns had a big night on the scoresheet too, scoring 30 points while hauling in 15 rebounds. Jalen Brunson was not to be left out of the action, as he scored 23 points and tacked on a career-high 17 assists. This was the first time since 1996 that a team had a 40 point scorer, with 30/15 and 20/10 stat lines in the same game. New York also set a franchise record with 45 team assists in the game during their best performance in recent memory. 

From a betting perspective, we had a fantastic night. The Knicks were surprising +150 underdogs on the moneyline for our biggest bet of the night. New York will not always shoot 53% from three point land, but against a banged up Nuggets team, this was an easy pick. We also sprinkled on OG Anunoby to secure 2+ assists, but he can be forgiven for his lack of defensive effort during a career night offensively. 

Tonight, the Knicks (10-7) continue their five-game road trip with a trip to Dallas to take on the Mavericks (10-8). Dallas made a run to the NBA Finals last season and looks poised to have another successful campaign this year. However, Luka Doncic has been out for the last week, and will be out again tonight. The impact Doncic has on this Mavericks team cannot be ignored. He has scored 28.7 PPG with 8.6 Rebounds and 8.3 Assists during his seven year career in Dallas. 

With Doncic on the bench, the Mavericks will need to turn to Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson for offensive success. Irving has been able to set aside his off court issues since coming to Dallas, and has seamlessly blended into the Mavericks rotation. His usage isn’t as high as it has been throughout his career, but he is off to his best start from the floor in terms of efficiency. His 51.2% from the floor and 47.7% from behind the arc are both on pace for career highs, and the Mavericks will need him even more with Doncic out. Thompson is currently questionable to suit up tonight, and missed Monday’s win over the Hawks. 

The Knicks match up nicely against the Mavericks, as they have the perimeter defense needed to slow down Dallas’s best players. Josh Hart and OG Anunoby are two of the best defenders in the league and are fully capable of stopping the Mavericks from heating up behind the arc. Anunoby has been as good as ever on both ends of the court, but Hart hasn’t looked quite his usual self this season. His numbers are still there offensively, but the introduction of Towns into the lineup has forced him to defend in the paint more frequently. Hart is at his best when isolated in the open court, not when boxing out in the paint. The Mavericks lack a dominating center many teams have which will allow Hart to stay comfortable without having to help Towns down low. 

Dallas is usually a deep team, but without Doncic off the court and a hobbled Thompson, their depth will be tested. The only time New York is dominated is when their bench falls apart against the opponent's reserves. New York has the best starting five in the league, and it’s impossible to imagine the Mavericks keeping pace without Doncic. Irving has been efficient, but now that he will be forced to generate his own offense late in the clock, his numbers will drop significantly tonight. 

For the first bet of the evening, we will be taking New York to win and cover the -4 spread. Dallas has been able to win 3/4 games this season without Doncic, but beating New York is a totally different task. The offensive talents of the Knicks are incomparable to what Dallas will be marching onto the court. New York has been the more consistent team over the last few weeks, and Dallas no longer has a suffocating defense at home like they once did. This is a very modest spread considering the run of form New York has been on, and once you factor in Doncic being out this becomes a slam dunk play. 

We will also be targeting Josh Hart’s points. Hart’s Over/Under is at 12.5 points which is a mark he has cleared in seven of his last nine games. The total is all the way up at 234 points, meaning this will likely be a fast paced game. Hart gets most of his points in transition, making this a perfect matchup for him to thrive. He took a back seat against Denver as his teammates were filling up the hoop, but that will not be the case in Dallas. He erupted for a 23 point triple double last time these two teams met, and will be able to find ways to score tonight once again. 

Pick: New York Knicks (-4) 3 Units

Pick: Josh Hart Over 12.5 Points 5 Units

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