Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/20/2024
Don’t look now, but the New York Knicks are suddenly on their first three-game win streak of the season. The win streak has come with a pair of wins over the Brooklyn Nets followed by a victory over the lowly Wizards, all of which were at home. This won’t be enough to start planning the parade for the Knicks, but it will fill them with some optimism after their 5-6 start.
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On Monday night, the Knicks demolished the Washington Wizards 134-106. They took a 106-75 lead into the fourth quarter which allowed their starters to get some valuable rest. The Knicks had four bench players log 17 or more minutes on Monday, which was the first time they went that deep into the bench this season. Jalen Brunson was the leading contributor on the offensive end, scoring 26 points while dishing out 11 assists.
From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. We lost a 3-Unit play on the Wizards to cover the +14.5 point spread but cashed our biggest bet of the night to make up for it. We laid a season-high 6 Units on Jalen Brunson to finish Under 38.2 Points+Rebounds+Assists, and he finished with exactly 38. After a slow start to the season, we are back on track at just the right time.
Tonight, the Knicks (8-6) begin a five-game road trip in Phoenix against the Suns (9-6). New York has gone just 3-4 on the road so far this season, and this trip could be a great indicator of just how deep New York could potentially go in the postseason. They get a little bit of a break in Phoenix, as both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are out as the pair continues to deal with injury issues. The absence of the 8th leading scorer of all-time cannot be overemphasized, as the Suns are simply not the same team without Durant in the lineup. Devin Booker has the potential to elevate his career close to Durant’s level, but he is still nowhere near as lethal as the two-time NBA champion. Booker hasn’t been able to fill the void left by Durant and Beal and is actually on track for the worst season of his career. His 23.5 PPG would be his lowest since the 2016-17 season, as would his 43% field goal percentage this year. Booker is only 15 games into the season, so there is still plenty of time to turn things around, but his dropoff is worrying for a Suns team filled with aging superstars.
While the Suns may not be able to match the Knicks intensity from the opening tipoff, Phoenix is one of the deepest teams in the league. Depth has been a concern for the Knicks this season, who are still dead last in the league in bench points by a wide margin. Phoenix’s injuries have tightened their rotation, but they are still much more comfortable going into their bench in close games.
New York may not have the depth needed to beat the Suns, but the star power in their starting lineup will be too much for the Suns to overcome. Karl-Anthony Towns has already developed a stronger connection with Jalen Brunson than Julius Randle did in two seasons together on the court. Towns can score in isolation with incredible consistency, and it has taken some of the offensive pressure off Brunson’s shoulders. Brunson doesn’t rely on the pick-and-roll game to generate offense, as he is far better suited for running a ball movement-focused offensive scheme. Brunson at the point, Towns down low, and a trio of 3-and-D wings have given New York legitimate hope they can win their first championship since 1973.
The New York faithful are well aware of what OG Anunoby and Josh Hart can do for the team, but it feels like everyone is still waiting for Mikal Bridges to find his stride in New York. Bridges cost the Knicks five first-round picks, and that is starting to look like a gross overpayment. He has shown potential during his short stint in New York, but his 16.4 PPG with just a 31.1% clip from deep is not up to scratch. He has a favorable offensive matchup against Booker tonight and will look to take advantage of a serious size advantage against the Suns perimeter players.
New York is coming in as a five-point road favorite against the Suns, but we will instead take the -200 moneyline instead. The Suns have seen 7 of their 15 games this season finish within five points, so another tight game could be on the cards in Phoenix. However, the Knicks superior starting five will not be beaten by a banged-up Suns team that has lost four consecutive games. Booker hasn’t been dominant enough to pull his team from the ashes, while the Knicks will be eager to keep their win streak alive for as long as possible as they begin their road trip.
For the second bet of the night, we will take Mikal Bridges to get Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks at -110 odds. Bridges is facing his old team and will be eager to make an impact on the defensive end. He will likely be rotating onto Booker on the defensive end and will get lots of opportunities to get involved defensively. He’s surpassed this line in half his games this season including three of his last five. There will be no shortage of chances for Bridges to get involved and has a little extra motivation to show the franchise that ruthlessly traded him away that they made the wrong choice.
Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -200 4 Units
Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 1.5 Steals+Blocks -110 3 Units
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