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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 11/15/2024

by Spencer Toth - 11/15/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Mikal Bridges

The New York Knicks picked up a valuable NBA Cup victory against the 76ers this week and now face a massive game against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. All season long Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every New York Knicks game and will be providing the best bets along the way. 

On Wednesday night, the New York Knicks lost to the Chicago Bulls 124-123. The Knicks dug themselves a 22-point second half deficit before a 17-0 run allowed them to claw their way back tied late in the fourth quarter. They were unable to finish the job as they fell back under .500 with the defeat. The leading scorer for the Knicks was Karl-Anthony Towns, who piled on 46 points. Towns has been a welcome addition to the Knicks offense. However, without scoring off the bench, they have struggled to keep pace this season. 

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From a betting perspective, we went an even 1-1. The Knicks failed to cover the -7 point spread in their defeat, while OG Anunoby secured not one, but two blocks to cash our player prop. 

Tonight, the Knicks (5-6, 1-0 in NBA Cup) host the Brooklyn Nets (5-7, 0-0 in NBA Cup) at Madison Square Garden. These two teams completed their first trade since 1983 when Brookyln sent Mikal Bridges to New York in exchange for five first round picks. Many people, including myself, believe that was a massive overpay for a player like Bridges, but there is no denying he has helped the Knicks pick up wins this season. Brooklyn and New York were expected to be on opposite ends of the standings this season, but both have five wins at this stage of the season. Brooklyn is not only 5-7 straight up, but an impressive 9-3 against the spread as they have kept things close in their defeats this year. The Nets are led by Cam Thomas’s 23.8 PPG, but their offensive facilitator has been Dennis Schroder. Schroder has scored 19.3 PPG this season with 5.9 assists, and almost all the Nets offense runs through the guard. Despite winning the gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup and taking home the MVP award, Schroder is still seen as a middle of the pack NBA guard. However, his tenacity on both ends of the court has allowed the Nets to stay competitive, and tonight’s game will be no exception. 

The battle of New York is always a heated affair, and the introduction of the NBA Cup will add extra fuel to the fire tonight. The Knicks are in a dominant position in East Group A after they took down the 76ers on Tuesday night. New York and Philadelphia were the clear favorites to advance, and all the Knicks have to do now is take care of business against the Nets, Hornets, and Banchero-less Magic. The Knicks have gotten off to a slow start this year and certainly thought they would have more wins than losses at this stage of the season. A successful NBA Cup run could spark some life back into this team. The oddsmakers haven’t given up on the Knicks, as they are the outright favorites to win the NBA Cup and have the third best NBA championship odds too. 

If New York is to not only beat the Nets, but jumpstart their season, they will need to find a way to get their bench involved. The starting lineup of Towns, Bridges, Brunson, Hart, and Anunoby is one of, if not the best, unit in the league. Miles McBride is a high quality sixth man, but the Knicks quickly drop off after that. Cameron Payne is an NBA veteran capable of putting in minutes, but his inability to stay healthy ensures he can’t be trusted. Jericho Sims shouldn’t be on an NBA court at his current developmental stage, and Matt Ryan continues to bounce from team to team and is not a championship level player. When Precious Achiuwa and Mitchell Robinson eventually return from injury, the Knicks will have some depth, but the coaching staff isn’t holding their breath for their return. As a result, head coach Tom Thibodeau has been playing a very tight rotation that is simply unsustainable in the modern day NBA. In the last 10 games, the Knicks have gotten just 16.9 PPG off the bench. In comparison, the Denver Nuggets have scored the second fewest bench points in the league this season with 23.7 PPG, while the Warriors lead the way with 58 bench points per game. New York’s starters will win them games more often than not, but a deep team like the Nets will give them trouble when the starters take a seat. McBride and Towns are both questionable for tonight. However, based on the -9.5 point spread in favor of the Knicks, I assume they will take to the court. 

For the first bet of the evening, we will scoop up the free points with the Nets on the spread. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Knicks lose this game outright considering how they have been playing, but we won’t touch the +350 moneyline. Instead, we will take the Nets on the spread as they have been able to consistently play tight games with the league’s best teams. Brooklyn has a very deep bench and will claw back any deficit their starters create. New York continues to get these generous spreads. And even with the extra incentive of the NBA Cup, I just don’t think they pile on enough points to finish with a double digit lead when the final buzzer sounds. 

For the second bet of the night, we will be taking Dennis Schroder to score over 15.5 points. Schroder has eclipsed this line in four of his last five games and will have a favorable matchup against Brunson for a majority of the evening. Schroder will inevitably play distributor for some possessions, but he will still take his fair share of shots. This is a pivotal NBA Cup game for the Nets that could have a massive impact on the trajectory of the season. Schroder has shown he trusts his young teammates, but he will also take it to the hoop whenever he gets the opportunity. 

Pick: Brooklyn Nets (+9.5) 4 Units

Pick: Dennis Schroder Over 15.5 Points 5 Units

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