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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 10/28/2024

by Spencer Toth - 10/28/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks season long handicapping Jarrett Allen

Throughout the regular season, I will be breaking down every New York Knicks weekday matchup and providing the best bets along the way. By using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit on a nightly basis. 

The Knicks got off to a woeful start after losing to the Celtics in their season opener. Boston sank 29 three’s against New York, tying an NBA record. The Celtics jacked up 61 attempts against New York, and it was clear Tom Thibodeau needed to change something quickly. 

The Knicks rebounded nicely in their second game, stifling a potent Pacers offense. Indiana went just 3/10 from behind the arc against the Knicks, resulting in a 123-98 victory in New York’s home opener. All five of their starters scored 14+ points, with Jalen Brunson leading the way with 26. Newcomer Karl-Anthony Towns was eager to make an impact at Madison Square Garden, and he did exactly that with 15 rebounds and 21 points while knocking down both of his long-range efforts. 

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Tonight, the Knicks (1-1) will look to hand the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-0) their first loss of the season. Cleveland has come flying out of the gate to start the season. They have won all their games by double digits and have an average winning margin of 20.3 points. To be fair, their three wins have come against the Pistons, Raptors and Wizards. All three of their victims will finish outside the play-in tournament this season, making this a crucial game for Cleveland to test their abilities. 

New York and Cleveland are both Eastern Conference contenders that will need their offense to step up in crucial moments. They were both in the top 10 in defensive rating last season, but the construction of their lineups couldn’t be more different. The Cavaliers rely on Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley to command the paint, while their guards chase teams off the three point line. Allen’s presence in the paint makes going inside a risky option. The loss of Max Strus to start the year hurts the Cavaliers depth at guard, but they still have enough difference-makers off the bench to compete. 

The Knicks defensive reputation comes from their swarming perimeter defense. Josh Hart is everything head coach Tom Thibodeau wants in a player. He can play up to 48 minutes per game without slowing down on either end of the court. His ability to disrupt passing lanes and defend all five positions makes him a valuable asset. The defensive effort doesn’t end with Hart, as the entire Knicks roster has been able to make positive impacts defensively. 

This promises to be a fascinating matchup between these two teams. The Cavaliers have been able to score the basketball with efficiency not seen since the LeBron James era. Their competition has been weak, but that doesn’t take anything away from the Cavaliers going out there and making it look easy. Cleveland scored 135+ points just four times last season, and they have already done it twice in three games this year. 

Despite saying this, there is still no doubt the Knicks will win and cover the spread tonight. New York simply has too much talent on their starting lineup to lose at home against the Cavaliers. Unless Cleveland matches the NBA record for three-point shots, the Knicks will surge past them offensively. Towns has been a fantastic addition to the Knicks lineup this season, as it has allowed New York to spread the floor on offense. Towns and Brunson are still developing a rapport for one another, but all the signs point to them being a fantastic combination in the pick and roll. Allen struggles against shooting big men, and Towns is a nightmare matchup for one of the best defensive players in the league. Towns’ ability to make turnaround jumpshots is reminiscent of prime Dwayne Wade, and he will leave Allen on an island on multiple occasions tonight. 

On the outside, the battle between Brunson and Donovan Mitchell will be fun to watch. Mitchell and Darius Garland have the ball handling abilities rarely seen in the modern-day NBA and will be a handful for Brunson to contain. However, a smothering Knicks defense held the Pacers to just three triples on Friday night, and they will force the Cavaliers inside whenever they can. 

For the first bet of the night, we will be taking the Knicks to cover the -2.5 point spread. The Knicks are at home, and this spread should really be in the -5 point range. There is no denying the Cavaliers hot start, but there is too high an expectation for them to carry over their momentum against the basement to MSG. New York went all-in for a championship over the offseason and will solidify their place as the second best team in the conference with a victory. 

For the second bet of the night, we will be taking Karl-Anthony Towns to score Over 1.5 three-point shots. He is -150 to do so, but against a matchup like Allen, I expect him to get several chances to jack it up from deep. The more often Towns can draw Allen out of the paint, the more offensive success New York will have. Towns scored three triples against Allen last time these two big men faced off and will do so once again tonight. 

Pick: New York Knicks (-2.5) 5 Units

Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Three Pointers 2 Units -150

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