Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 10/22/2024
All season long, I will be breaking down each and every New York Knicks weekday game and will be providing the best bets for each matchup. By using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks roster, and the league as a whole we can churn a profit throughout the season. Over the last two years, I went positive on both the Bucks in 2022-23 (Up $2,310) and the Knicks last season (Up $110). While we won’t always favor the Knicks, we will be able to identify favorable matchups and carefully select when to pull the trigger with New York.
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The New York Knicks (0-0) have a variety of new faces joining their roster for the season opener against the Boston Celtics (0-0). The first domino to fall was the arrival of Mikal Bridges. The Knicks didn’t have to give up anyone meaningful off their roster to acquire Bridges, as they elected to trade away five first round picks instead. Bridges will instantly slot into the starting lineup, and it will be interesting to see what he can do with a competent team around him. He excelled as the primary option with Brooklyn, scoring 21.2 PPG in his season and a half with the Nets. Bridges will be a fantastic partner with Jalen Brunson in the backcourt, as he doesn’t demand too much ball handling and will help space the floor nicely for Brunson in the set offense.
New York now had their backcourt sorted out. However, after Isiah Hartenstein left in free agency and Mitchell Robinson suffered an injury setback, the Knicks needed front court reinforcements.
Bridges wasn’t the only new arrival in New York, as the Knicks pulled off a blockbuster trade three weeks before opening night. New York picked up Karl-Anthony Towns from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVinencenzo. Randle looked like he was never going to fit the scheme of the new-look New York Knicks team, and his dreadful playoff run ensured he wouldn’t be playing another game in a Knicks uniform. The loss of DiVincenzo hurts the Knicks depth scoring, as he was one of the players who stepped up when the Knicks suffered several injuries last season. It can be easy to reminisce about the departures, but the arrival of Towns will allow the New York faithful to quickly move on.
Towns spent the first nine seasons of his career with the Timberwolves and his move to the Big Apple came as a sudden shock. The lack of quality performances from Towns in the postseason was one of the reasons the Timberwolves let him go, but the Knicks are getting a fantastic big man for the modern NBA. Towns can shoot the three ball well which will allow the Knicks to have five scoring options on the court. His defense has been called into question in the past, but OG Anunoby and Josh Hart are more than capable of picking up the slack if Towns falls asleep. He scored 21.8 PPG with a lethal 41.6% clip from deep last season, making him one of many options for the Knicks offensively.
The Knicks have the hardest matchup possible to start off the season, as a road game against the defending champions is a fantastic test to kick things off. The Celtics have a well rounded lineup that can dominate at both ends of the court. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have grown together in Boston and the duo is one of the best one-two punches in the league. Both can score with extreme efficiency and the Knicks defense will be tested right off the bat. Brown won both the ECF MVP and the FMVP for the Celtics, but it is Tatum that is the primary option for Boston. Tatum saw his PPG drop to 26.9 PPG last season, but his scoring efficiency ensured he made the Celtics offense even better. His assists (4.9) and field goal percentage (47.1) were both career highs, as Tatum stopped forcing low percentage shots. If he can make the right decisions against the Knicks tonight, the Celtics can start off the season by carrying over the momentum from last year. On the defensive end, Jrue Holiday will be tasked with slowing down Jalen Brunson. Holiday is the best perimeter defender in the league and fully deserved to win DPOY at some point in his career. His ability to prevent the league’s best scorers from heating up is second-to-none, and Brunson will have quite the task at hand tonight.
The big question for New York is whether or not the offseason moves will disrupt their defensive rhythm. The Knicks relied on strong defense to get them over the line when their offense evaporated which was a very effective strategy. New York brought in offensive pieces in the summer, and if their defense can hold firm they will be one of the most well rounded teams in the league. Towns and Bridges aren’t known for their defense, but neither were DiVincenzo and Randle. Josh Hart and OG Anunoby are the defensive anchors for this team, and the pair will control the floor on the defensive end. Anunoby has dealt with injuries since joining the Knicks on New Year’s Eve 2023, but there is no denying the team went 20-3 during his brief stints in the lineup. The Knicks have no excuses for lackluster offensive showings, and the season could rest on the play and health of Anunoby on the defensive end.
It’s always fascinating to see the opening games of the NBA season, as a few roster changes can go a long way in shaping a team's identity. The Celtics are running it back with the same lineup that won the championship, while the Knicks made dramatic changes.
The spread is set to 5.5 points in favor of the Celtics, but we will look at the total for our first bet of the season. The total points are all the way up at 223, which is way too high for the first game of the new season. Both of these teams will want to do most of their scoring from the outside which plays right into their respective defensive plans. The Celtics have Holiday and White patrolling the three point line, while the Knicks have an equally adept pair of defenders with Anunoby and Hart. Scoring is often lower than expected in the first few games of the year, and these two teams match up perfectly against one another.
For the player prop tonight, we will take new arrival Towns to surpass his 21.5 point total. His matchup against the undersized Al Horford will allow Towns to get involved inside. He will certainly look to show off his shooting from deep, but a favorable interior matchup will see his score 22+ tonight.
Pick: Knicks vs Celtics Under 223 3 Units
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points 1 Unit
2024-25 Season record:
ML Record: 0-0
Spread Record: 0-0
Total Record: 0-0
Player Props Record: 0-0
Total: 0-0
2023-24 Season record: (New York Knicks)
ML Record: 14-5
Spread Record: 26-24
Total Record: 18-17
Player Props Record: 24-40
Total: 82-86
Up 1.1 Units ($110)
2022-23 Season Record: (Milwaukee Bucks)
ML Record: 15-10
Spread Record: 19-14
Total Record: 8-13
Player Props Record: 31-23
Total: 73-62
Up 23.1 Units ($2310)
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