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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/5/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/5/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers Jalen Brunson

Throughout the regular season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks matchup, giving out best bets along the way. Using my knowledge on the Knicks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

On Wednesday night, the Knicks improved to 2-0 since the OG Anunoby trade, taking down the Bulls 116-100. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson led the way with 35 and 31 points respectively, as it was a solid second half after the Knicks dug themselves a double digit deficit in the opening frame. The New York defense appears to have turned a corner since acquiring Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa, holding their opponents to just 103 PPG since their arrival.
From a betting perspective, we went a perfect 2-0. The Knicks easily won on the moneyline, cashing our first bet of the night, and the total stayed below 220.5, rounding out the sweep.

Tonight, the New York defense will be tested, as the Knicks (19-15) head to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers (23-10). Philadelphia has shot up the Eastern conference standings thanks to a 4th ranked offense, and a 2nd ranked defense. The MVP favorite Joel Embiid has been dominant on both ends of the court, and while his foul drawing techniques may be often criticized, they are extremely effective. His 34.8 PPG and 10.3 Free Throws made per game are both league highs, and to put those numbers into perspective, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is second in the league with 7.6 free throws made per game, which is closer to 20th in the league than Embiid at number 1. While the critics will be on Embiid’s case for ‘ruining the game’, it’s not his fault he gets fouled. His downhill offense is simply unstoppable, and despite his solid free throw percentage, teams often elect to send him to the line rather than allowing easy 2 point buckets. On the defensive end, Embiid is top 10 in blocks and top 5 in rebounds, as his all around game is critical to the 76ers success. The other breakout star for the 76ers has been Tyrese Maxey. Maxey has filled the minutes James Harden has left behind, and the young superstar has the potential to form a devastating 1-2 combo with Embiid. His 25.9 PPG and 6.4 Assists are both career highs, as his on ball movement is some of the best in the league. His ability to blow by defenders often creates plenty of space in the open floor, and by dribbling with his head up, he can usually find the open man when the double team comes.

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This will be no easy task for the Knicks to navigate, as despite their improved defensive form since the trade, they are still facing an uphill battle to walk out of Philadelphia with a win. Anunoby may have helped the perimeter defense, but their interior defending is still weak. Achiuwa showed flashes of being a solid NBA starter in his stint with Toronto, but since his breakout season in 2020-21, he has never been able to replicate that production. The ‘3 and D’ big man will need to step up when Isiah Hartenstein heads to the bench, and with Embiid’s tendency to draw fouls, Achiuwa may be on the court more often than Tom Thibodeau would like in the infancy of his Knicks career.

Brunson and Randle have carried a bulk of the offensive workload all season long, and with Quickley and Barrett gone, the Knicks' depth has taken a serious hit once again. Josh Hart is the new sixth man for the Knicks, and he lacks the same energy Quickley brought onto the court on a nightly basis. This has forced either Brunson or Randle to take an early seat, in preparation of leading the second unit into the 2nd quarter.

In this matchup, the Knicks will need to play mistake-free basketball if they expect to keep their win streak alive. Embiid and the 76ers will not need a second invitation to pull ahead on the scoreboard, as there are really no holes in the Philadelphia game. The only major categories they are bottom half in the league in are assists and 3 pointers, but with the ball going through Embiid in isolation so frequently, which often ends in foul shots or a short range attempt, these numbers are understandable and have not affected the 76ers offense. While the Knicks have been improving on the defensive end, their interior defense is still a huge issue, and this one could get out of hand early. A healthy Embiid will result in an easy Philadelphia win, as the Knicks will come back down to earth on the road. Philadelphia is coming in as 6-point favorites, and I will happily lay the points with the home team.


Next up is the total. It’s coming in at 233 points, and I have no choice but to take the Under. The Knicks defense has been improving since the trade, and without an abundance of 3 pointers from the 76ers, and the slow pace of play both of these teams operate under, this total is high enough to remain intact. Philadelphia has very good defense on all 3 levels, and without a spark off the bench for New York, if they get cold early thanks to suffocating defense from Kelly Oubre and Maxey, the pace of play and point total will rapidly fall.

Finally, we will be taking Isiah Hartenstien Under 9.5 Rebounds. The big man will have a tough task of guarding Embiid all night long, and will not be as aggressive on the offensive glass. Once he inevitably gets into foul trouble, his increased time on the bench, or an early trip to the showers will ensure this line stays under. He’s coming off a mammoth 20 rebound night, which is keeping this line high, but after finishing in single digit rebounds in each of his previous 5 games, I am very confident we are getting a great price here on the Under.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers (-6) 2 Units

Pick: 76ers vs Knicks Under 233 2 Units

Pick: Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 Rebounds -125 3 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 7-4

Spread Record: 9-9

Total Record: 5-5

Player Props Record: 9-18

Total: 29-38

Down 10.9 Units

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