Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/3/2024
This season, Doc’s Sports is the place to find all your New York Knicks betting needs, as I will be breaking down every single New York Knicks matchup, with free best bets along the way.
The Knicks snapped their 3-game losing skid on Monday afternoon, ousting the league leading Minnesota Timberwolves, 112-106. Julius Randle led the way with a 39-point outburst, as the Knicks got off on the right foot to start 2024. OG Anunoby scored 17 points on an efficient 7/12 from the floor in his debut but wasn’t matched up on Anthony Edwards, despite being the new best defender on the floor. The Knicks were able to survive Edwards’ 35 points but will not want to get in the habit of placing their best defender on players like Jaden McDaniels.
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From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. I anticipated the Timberwolves prevailing in New York, but I correctly wagered on the total staying Under 223 points, which it did with ease. I’m not happy about the fact that Edwards had an easy matchup against Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo rather than Anunoby, allowing him to surpass the 29.5 points total I had bet on him going under.
Tonight, the Knicks (18-15) will look to stay on track at home, when they welcome the sneaky Chicago Bulls (15-20) to town. The Bulls have been without Zach LaVine since November 28, and have done much better without one of the superstars. They started off the season 5-13. However, since he’s been on the shelf, they’ve gone 10-6 straight up and 12-4 Against the Spread. It is very clear the rest of the Chicago lineup performs better without LaVine on the court, and it’s unlikely we will see LaVine in a Bulls uniform anytime soon. In his absence, DeMar DeRozan has been playing dominant basketball, averaging 22.2 PPG this season, but has seen all his major numbers improve without LaVine, posting a 23/4/6 split without him. Coby White, Nikola Vucevic, and Alex Caruso have stepped up admirably, and this team is just as good without LaVine as with him. The Bulls injury report is still undetermined. However, after Vucevic sat out last night's 110-97 loss to the 76ers, I expect him to do so once again here. That leaves the Bulls extremely short handed against a fiery Knicks squad, and New York should have no problem dispatching them at home and staying perfect since their season defining trade.
The swap of Anunoby for RJ Barrett in the starting lineup is a clear upgrade, as the spacing issues Barrett and Randle had are no more, and Anunoby is the much better fit as a third option than Barrett ever was. His defensive intensity makes him a huge asset, but the Immanuel Quickley sized hole the Knicks now have on the bench must be filled. Josh Hart and Quentin Grimes are obvious candidates to do so, but we have seen enough of them all season to know they are incapable of bringing the same energy Quickley did to the second unit. Precious Achiuwa will be hoping he will be the one to lead the second unit, but the lack of ball handling from the ‘3 and D’ big man makes that hard to believe. The Knicks leaned on their superior bench for long stretches in the opening third of the season. And since one of their biggest assets was taken away, they will have to make up those points with the starting unit.
One of those starters that will have to improve is Jalen Brunson. Brunson got off to a hot start to the year after closing out last season strong, and I was ready to call him the face of the Knicks franchise. While that ship hasn’t yet sailed, his poor play in recent weeks has seen Randle take the offensive reins. While I know it’s a high bar, Brunson has eclipsed 30 points in only 3 of his last 15 games, after doing so in 6 of the 15 prior. His offensive efficiency has dropped. And when the Knicks are late in the shot clock, Randle has gotten the call to make a tough isolation shot. It's not that Brunson is playing especially poorly, as he’s still leading the team with 25.6 PPG, but his lack of finishing under the hoop has cost the Knicks points, and victories.
In tonight’s matchup, the Knicks cannot afford to take this one lightly, despite the fact they are playing an inferior Bulls team at home, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Chicago has been doubted by the bookies in recent weeks and are once again coming in as hefty 9.5-point underdogs. They were shut down offensively against the 76ers last night, and an improving Knicks defensive unit should be able to limit their scoring once again. I’m hesitant to take them on the spread and will instead by laying the -400 moneyline on New York. I just don’t see how they lose this one. The Knicks are better on the glass, in transition, and after getting off to a woeful start to the year from the floor, have passed the Bulls in field goal percentage too. They have 3 of the best 4 offensive weapons on the floor. And while DeRozan will be featured heavily in the Bulls offense, the lack of a 3-point shot from the superstar will not allow the Bulls to gut out a victory. For the first bet of the night, take the Knicks on the moneyline. For similar reasons, we’ll be taking the Under at 220.5. I don’t trust the Bulls to score triple digits consistently enough to cash this prop. And while the Knicks offense is suddenly a wagon, both these teams play at bottom 5 paces of play, and there won’t be many shots attempted tonight. The Knicks were more than happy to chew up the clock and lean on their defense against the Timberwolves. And with Anunoby and Achiuwa in the lineup, Tom Thibodeau may finally get his defensive powerhouse back to full steam in New York.
Pick: New York Knicks Moneyline -400 5 Units
Pick: Knicks vs Bulls Under 220.5 1 Unit
2023-24 Season record:
ML Record: 6-4
Spread Record: 9-9
Total Record: 4-5
Player Props Record: 9-18
Total: 27-38
Down 13.1 Units
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