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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/29/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/29/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Charlotte Hornets Donte DiVincenzo

You have found the right place for all your NBA betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game and providing best bets along the way.

On Thursday Night, the Knicks annihilated the reigning champions, the Denver Nuggets, by a score of 122-84. They once again used their superior defense to hold them to just 84 points, with OG Anunoby leading the way with 26 points on offense and 6 steals on defense.

From a betting perspective, we had another perfect night. The Knicks easily cashed our +115 odds bet on their moneyline, as they rode their superior defense to an easy home win. The total was set at 222.5. However, once again, New York stayed under the mark, for the 12th time in the last 13 games. Using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the league as whole, there is no doubt we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

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The Knicks extended their win streak to 6 games, with a 125-109 victory over the Miami Heat on Saturday night. Jalen Brunson did a bulk of the offensive scoring, scoring game high 32 points. The Knicks defense may have let the Heat score 109 points, which is the second highest in 2024, but they got the stops they needed down the stretch and were able to keep the Heat at bay. However, despite their 6th straight win and 12-2 January record, the mood has suddenly changed in New York. Co-star Julius Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder, and the severity of the injury has yet to be confirmed. Despite it being his non-dominant arm, there is a very real possibility he could need surgery and miss the remainder of the season. While the Knicks defense has greatly improved, they will be unable to hang around with the top dogs in the East without Randle. The best-case scenario is Randle doesn’t need immediate surgery, and will be out for around a month, before getting surgery in the offseason, similar to what Dwayne Wade did with the Heat in 2007. Either way, the Knicks will be without Randle for the foreseeable future and will need to find a way to stay afloat in the East and continue to win basketball games without him.

Luckily for New York, their first test comes against a perennial bottom feeder, as the Knicks (29-17) take a quick trip to Charlotte to take on the Hornets (10-34) tonight. There aren’t many easier matchups for New York, as the Hornets have struggled to put wins on the board all season long, losing 21 of their last 24 games. Key rim protector Mark Williams has missed extended periods of time, and he will be out once again tonight, with 4th leading scorer Gordon Hayward joining him on the bench. The Hornets traded away Terry Rozier last week, leaving a bulk of the offensive workload on the shoulders of LaMelo Ball, who’s questionable in tonight’s contest. The Hornets have struggled on both ends of the court, posting bottom 3 offensive and defensive ratings at the midway point of the season. Any hope of playing meaningful April basketball has vanished for the Hornets, and the basement dweller will be more concerned about jostling for draft capital rather than winning basketball games down the stretch. Kyle Lowry was sent to Charlotte with a draft pick in exchange for Rozier, but the former champion won’t suit up until after the trade deadline, with both parties hoping the veteran will be traded for more assets before February 8.

The Knicks desperately need to come up with a game plan to minimize the impact of Randle’s absence, and I expect plenty of tinkering for Tom Thibodeau in tonight’s matchup. Role players Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes, and Precious Achiuwa will be called on for increased minutes, with one of the trio likely being inserted into the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. Considering Hart has failed to live up to expectations this year, posting career lows in PPG and 3-point percentage, it’s difficult to expect him to suddenly turn the corner when the team needs it most. Grimes is another candidate, but the lack of size he brings, combined with his flatlined growth this season, will see him continue to operate on the second unit. That leaves Achiuwa, who will likely be given the nod. Achiuwa spent 2 full seasons in Toronto, but the talented ‘3 and D’ forward never took the next step he needed to lengthen his starting role. His minutes slowly reduced season by season, and his lack of consistency from behind the arc made him a liability on the offensive end. Achiuwa can throw down massive dunks, and make highlight reel blocks on the other end, but those moments are too few and far between to have him starting on a legitimate championship contending team. Achiuwa will get his chances. However, with the trade deadline looming, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see New York attempt to lure another superstar into the lineup. A matchup against Miles Bridges tonight will be a great test for Achiuwa, and how he plays in the upcoming games will heavily determine the trajectory of his future with the Knicks. Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims are both not mobile enough to consistently play together, and Achiuwa is the next closest thing the Knicks have to Randle on the defensive end.

The Knicks are coming in as 9-point road favorites against the Hornets, but we’re going to be sticking to the moneyline tonight, despite the -375 price tag. Thibodeau could use this game to test out various lineups without Randle, and the scoreboard could stay closer than expected for long stretches of the game. I don’t expect Thibodeau to throw this very winnable contest away, but expecting a dominating double digit win for the Knicks feels like it just might be too much to ask.

Next up, we’ll be taking Donte DiVincenzo Under 14.5 points. DiVincenzo has averaged just 11.4 PPG this season. And even in an increased role recently, 13.9 PPG in his last 10 games. There could be plenty of experimenting with the lineups, and don’t expect DiVincenzo to see even more minutes in tonight’s matchup. The Hornets give up an above average number of threes, which is expected considering they are dead last in defensive rating, but they usually do a pretty good job at chasing teams off the line and giving up easy two’s instead. DiVincenzo has failed to hit this line in 4 of his last 5 road games, and another 10-12 point night looks to be on the cards.

Finally, we’re looking at Precious Achiuwa’s rebounds. The Hornets lack the interior size to contain the big man. And with the traditional center grabbing most of the attention, Achiuwa should be able to get plenty of weakside rebounds. Achiuwa has averaged 10 rebounds per game in his last 4 contests, and his line should be right around 5.5 rebounds tonight. Anything close to this line will be an easy cash for Achiuwa, who will be desperate to keep his increased role in the lineup, especially with the injury to Randle.

Pick: New York Knicks ML -375 3 Units

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Under 14.5 Points 1 Units

Pick: Precious Achiuwa Over 5.5 Rebound (Line estimate) 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 8-4

Spread Record: 12-13

Total Record: 10-6

Player Props Record: 13-11

Total: 42-46

Down 8.0 Units

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