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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/25/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/25/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic

Throughout the NBA season, Doc’s Sports is the place to find all your betting needs. I will be breaking down every single New York Knicks weekday game and providing my best bets along the way. While we won’t always favor the Knicks, by using my knowledge on the team, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

On Tuesday night, the Knicks won their 4th straight game, outlasting the Brooklyn Nets 108-103 on the road. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson led the way offensively, scoring 30 points apiece, but it was the Knicks superior defense that was a key difference-maker.

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From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. We correctly selected the Knicks against the spread (-4), in what was a sweaty finish, but we failed to complete the sweep, as Mikal Bridges went way over his 21.5-point total, finishing with 36 points.

Tonight, the Knicks (27-17) head back home to welcome the defending champions, the Denver Nuggets (31-14) to New York. Denver suffered from a minor championship hangover to start the season, going 14-9 through the first quarter of the season. They never dropped out of the top 4 in the West, but they were playing below their very high standards. However, they’ve straightened the ship, going 17-5 since, and find themselves just half a game behind the Western Conference leading Thunder.

Denver relies on the offensive production from 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic to find success, but their dominance on both ends of the court can be attributed to their recent hot streak. The Nuggets have the second highest number of assists, while committing the second fewest turnovers. Their ability to pass the ball better than almost every other team in the league has led to several easy shots. And whenever they are in doubt, they feed the ball to Jokic, and good things usually happen. The Knicks are suffering from injuries in the frontcourt, and getting a suitable big man to shut down Jokic will be the top priority tonight.

While Denver has been shooting up the Western Conference standings, the Knicks have been doing the same out East. Since 2024 began, and the OG Anunoby trade occurred, the Knicks are 10-2, and have the best defensive rating in the league, allowing just 101 PPG. Their defense has been phenomenal, as not only has Anunoby made a difference, the spacing on the court without Randle and RJ Barrett getting in each other’s way has been a game changer. While Barrett and Immanuel Quickley’s offensive production has been missed, Brunson and Randle have consistently been able to take, and make, those extra shots. The pair are averaging 26.6 and 24.2 PPG on the season, respectively, but have seen a significant increase in the wake of the trade. Brunson has scored 29 PPG, eclipsing 30 points in 7/10 games, while Randle has scored 26 PPG, and scored 30+ 6 times. The duo has been dominant, but it has resulted in a severe lack of depth scoring. And when either of the two has an off night, there isn’t much the Knicks can do offensively to compensate.

Tonight’s matchup will be a good old fashioned basketball game, featuring two of the most consistent teams in the league. Both franchises are ranked 7th-12th in offensive, and defensive, ratings, and it will be a very evenly matched affair. Jokic’s dominance inside will tilt the scales in Denver’s favor, but the Knicks superior shot making abilities, and perimeter defense will level the playing field. We all know Jokic will fill up the hoop, and the Nuggets success rests on the shoulders of Jamal Murray in a contest like this. Murray will be tasked with going shot for shot with Brunson from deep, but his 21.3 PPG with a 41% clip from deep should allow him to stay up to the task. Jokic may get the spotlight, but his majestic passing plays still need shooters to finish off the sequence, and Murray has consistently been the guy Jokic relies on. His ability to connect with Jokic in the lane, and on the outside, has seen the excellent pull up shooter create openings for himself, and he usually doesn’t need a second invitation to score.

In tonight’s matchup, the Knicks are coming in as short home underdogs. And while I understand why the defending champions are road favorites, they do not deserve to be against the red hot Knicks. New York has the best record in the league since the calendar flipped, and their home court is not an easy place for opponents to pick up wins. Denver is a mediocre 14-10 on the road, compared to the Knicks 14-5 record at home, and New York has won 7 of their last 8 at MSG. The interior defense has improved for New York, and I expect them to be able to pull out a win at +115 odds. While the +2.5 point spread is tempting, I much prefer the plus money price on the moneyline compared to the -110 on the spread. New York’s pair of consistent scorers, and solid defense, has been a winning formula for the Knicks. And as long as they keep putting wins on the board, I will keep tailing them, especially at an underdog price on their home court. 

The second play will be on the Under, at 222.5. These two teams both have top half defensive units, while both play at a bottom 5 pace in the league. At the storied Madison Square Garden, the pace of play can often slow down even further, and fewer shots attempted for both teams will result in fewer points on the scoreboard. The improved Knicks defense has resulted in the Under cashing in 11 of their last 12 games. And against a slow paced, defensively sound Nuggets squad, we should be in store for another Under.

Pick: New York Knicks ML +115 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Nuggets Under 222.5 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 7-4

Spread Record: 12-13

Total Record: 9-6

Player Props Record: 13-11

Total: 40-46

Down 11.3 Units

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