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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/18/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/18/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards Precious Achiuwa

This season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks weekday matchup and provide best bets along the way. Using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

Last night, the Knicks got back into the win column with a 109-94 victory over the Houston Rockets. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson did the bulk of the heavy lifting on offense, scoring 31 and 30 points, respectively. OG Anunoby did a great job at shutting down Dillon Brooks, holding him to just 4 baskets on 13 attempts. The Knicks defense appears to finally be turning the corner. And as long as their stars keep delivering on the offensive end, they will be playing meaningful April basketball.

From a betting perspective, we had another profitable night. Our biggest wager of the evening was on the Knicks spread at (-5), and they easily took care of business, winning by 15 points. We correctly identified Houston’s road struggles and were able to capitalize on the Knicks dominance at home. Our lone loss was on Fred VanVleet to go Under 2.5 3’s as the former Raptor rained down 5 makes on 12 shots.

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Tonight, the Knicks (24-17) are on the tail end of a back-to-back when they welcome the Wizards (7-32) to New York, as they enter the second half of the season sitting in 5th place in the East. The first half of the season has gone well for New York, and there were plenty of ups and downs. The Knicks held their opponents to 120 or fewer points in each of their first 19 games this season and had a 12-7 record to show for it. However, after Mitchell Robinson got hurt, the Knicks defense fell off a cliff, allowing 120+ in 9 of the final 13 games in December, going 5-8 in that span. Sitting at 17-15 and in the play-in tournament position, the Knicks decided something had to change. To get 2024 started on the right foot, New York brought in OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa from the Raptors, in exchange for Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett. The trade instantly elevated their defense, as they've since gone 7-2, allowing just 100.1 PPG since the trade, which is the best mark in the league. A 24-17 start for New York is slightly exceeding their 44.5 win total set at the start of the campaign, and they will likely need to go just 21-20 to clinch a top 6 seed, and the playoff spot that goes with it.

In tonight’s matchup, a visit from the lowly Wizards provides a fantastic opportunity to put another win on the board, with the Knicks coming in as whopping 12-point favorites. Washington has been living in the basement of the Eastern Conference all season long, finding themselves in 14th or 15th since the opening week of the year. Despite their starting unit playing together for 35/39 games this season, they’ve still been struggling to put wins on the board. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole provide the limited offense Washington possesses, averaging 22.4 and 16.9 PPG each. Kuzma has been a lone bright spot for Washington, posting career highs in both PPG, and FG% (45.6). His ability to generate offense with lackluster players around him has led to a few wins. In the 7 Washington wins this season, Kuzma has scored 21+ in all of them, and 30+ in 4/7. Without an above average showing for Kuzma, the Wizards have been unable to put wins on the board. Plain and simple.

In tonight’s matchup, the Wizards do not stand a chance. Even if New York elects to rest the hobbled Jalen Brunson, the Knicks should have no problem building a big lead and never looking back. Anunoby will be tasked with shutting down Kuzma. And when the best wing defender in the league is guarding Washington’s best scorer, the Wizards will struggle to unlock the strong Knicks defensive unit. The Knicks own a top 10 offense. And while their defense is still just outside the top 10, they’ve been playing like the best defensive unit since the trade to kick off 2024. Not only will New York be running the more efficient offense, their dominance on the glass will lead to several extra possessions. Washington is dead last in the league in rebounds, despite playing at the fastest pace in the league. New York leads the league with a 53% rebound percentage, while Washington is dead last at 44%. Starting center Daniel Gafford is missing his second game of the season tonight, and the Washington rebounding issues will get even worse. We saw them get dominated on the glass and the scoreboard by the 4-37 Detroit Pistons last game, and New York could easily double up their opponents on the glass.

The 12-point spread does not deter me in the slightest from taking on the Knicks, as at home, they will put on a show for the New York faithful. The Knicks last 6 wins have all been by 12+ points, including a 121-105 victory in Washington last week. In that game, Washington had one of their best rebounding games of the year, matching the Knicks 45 rebounds, yet still lost by double digits. In tonight’s matchup, the first bet of the evening will be Knicks (-12) as I expect them to jump out to a big lead, and cruise for a majority of the game.

The next bet will be on the total. The line is sitting at 233.5, well above the total of their last matchup, and I’m expecting another Under. Washington was lucky to score triple digits in their last matchup, as they were able to push the pace and match New York on the glass. The change in venue will see the overall pace of the game slow down, and the tired legs from New York will see them take their foot off the gas on the offensive end down the stretch.

Finally, I’m all over Kuzma Under 6.5 rebounds at +110 odds. Kuzma was held to just 2 rebounds last time these two met, and with a bulk of the offensive responsibility on his shoulders, I don’t expect a high effort on the glass from him. Anunoby is fantastic at staying with his assignment and boxing out on the defensive end. Kuzma has hauled in 7+ rebounds in just 3/7 games in 2024, and expecting the dominant Knicks to hold him under the mark once again is a promising wager at plus money.

Pick: New York Knicks (-12) 3 Units

Pick: Wizards vs Knicks Under 233.5 1 Unit

Pick: Kyle Kuzma Under 6.5 Rebounds +110 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 7-4

Spread Record: 11-12

Total Record: 8-6

Player Props Record: 12-10

Total: 37-44

Down 10.2 Units

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