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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/17/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/17/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets Fred VanVleet

You have found the right place for all your New York Knicks best bets, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single Knicks weekday game and providing best bets along the way. We were able to churn a consistent profit last season by following the Milwaukee Bucks, and a similar chunk of profit is expected by the season’s end in New York.

On Monday Night, the Knicks fell to the Orlando Magic 98-94 at Madison Square Garden. Jalen Brunson was a late scratch, and the lack of offense for both teams led to a pretty lifeless game. The defense was understandably solid between two quality defensive units, but a boatload of missed free throws, sloppy possessions, and a lack of poise from behind the arc led to the Knicks demise. Isaiah Hartenstein’s early foul trouble threw another wrench in the Knicks game plan, and they’ll be hoping to get back on track tonight.

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From a betting perspective, we had another solid night, going 2-1. The Knicks failed to cover the (-6.5) point spread, largely due to the fact their best scorer was ruled out just minutes before the game tipped off. The Under was never in question, which was an easy winner, and Paolo Banchero failed to sink a three pointer, easily cashing Under 1.5 3’s.

Tonight, the Knicks (23-17) continue their 4-game homestand with a visit from the Houston Rockets (19-20). The Rockets have gotten off to a much better start than many expected, as their combination of veteran leaders and young talents have allowed them to pull off several upsets this season. In free agency, Houston picked up Fred VanVleet on a 3-year, $129 million dollar deal. While I absolutely believe the Rockets overpaid for VanVleet, his guidance from the point combined with flexible contracts for the inexperienced Rockets prospects have allowed the Rockets to succeed. His PPG may have dipped slightly compared to his tenure on the Raptors, but his 8.5 Assists per game has blown his career high out of the water, as it’s absolutely clear he is happy to play provider rather than drive to the hoop and put up tough shots. While VanVleet has helped Houston out, there is no doubting who the most impactful player has been for the Rockets. Alperen Sengun is looking like a young Jokic in Houston, leading the team in PPG (21.8), Rebounds (9.0), and field goal percentage (53.9). Sengun’s ability to drive to the hoop and keep his head up to find open teammates is like few others in the league, and the 21-year-old is having by far the best season of his career. The youngsters in Houston such as Sengun, Jalen Green, and Jabari Smith, combined with the gritty veterans such as the undrafted VanVleet, and the controversial Dillon Brooks, have allowed the Rockets to string together wins. However, one glaring stat cannot be ignored, and that is their home and road splits. At home, Houston has been dominant, posting a 15-6 record, with wins over the Bucks, Nuggets x2, Mavericks, Lakers, Pelicans, and Thunder. They’ve been able to swat aside almost everyone who stands in their path, but road games are a different story. Their 4-14 road record is alarming, as Houston is not the same team away from home. Their trip to New York wraps up a 6-game road trip, with the Rockets only victory coming against the lowly Pistons. MSG is one of the toughest arenas to play in league wide. And with the Rockets net rating falling from +7.5 to -7.0 when they are away from home, the Knicks will be confident they can get back on track with a victory.

New York’s defense and offense appear to be inversely correlated, as whenever the defense begins to find their groove, the offense falls off a cliff. The Knicks have continued to put together solid defensive performances since OG Anunoby’s arrival, but their offense has been far less effective. A hobbled Jalen Brunson and a questionable Josh Hart could see the Knicks go deep into their bench tonight, and they cannot afford to lose any more ground if they expect a top half seed in the East.

The Knicks are reasonable 5-point favorites against the Rockets tonight, and I’ll take a shot on their spread. The Rockets are an easy team to fade on the road, as they go from a championship caliber team at home, to a bottom feeder on the road. New York may be dealing with injuries, but their superior ability on both ends of the court will be enough to tip the scales in their favor. The Knicks have a respectable 12-5 record at home this season. And considering their last 14 wins have come by 5+ points, if the Knicks can get the win, a cover is probably in store too.

For the next bet of the night, we’ll be targeting VanVleet’s 3’s. The Knicks are a very good team at preventing the 3 ball from falling, and VanVleet will look to increase his role as provider in New York tonight. His line is evenly juiced at 2.5. And considering this is a total he’s failed to reach in back-to-back games, there is no reason to expect him to take low percentage shots. The Knicks will have plenty of issues dealing with Sengun on the interior, and VanVleet is not the man New York will elect to leave open from behind the arc when the double team comes. OG Anunoby will be instructing his new teammates on how to defend the former Raptor, and I expect a quiet night from deep for VanVleet.

Pick: New York Knicks (-5) 2 Units
Pick: Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 3’s 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 7-4

Spread Record: 10-12

Total Record: 8-6

Player Props Record: 12-19

Total: 36-43

Down 11.1 Units

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