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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/15/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/15/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic Paolo Banchero

Throughout the season, Doc’s Sports is the best place to find all your New York Knicks betting needs. We will be breaking down every single New York Knicks weekday matchup and providing best bets along the way. By using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit by the season’s end.

On Thursday night, the Knicks lost 128-124 to a Dallas Mavericks missing Luka Doncic, snapping a 5-game win streak. Here’s an excerpt from that article. “Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be able to mitigate the shots Irving does make, and unless the controversial superstar goes off for 40+ points, this one won’t even be close.” Irving dropped 44 points, allowing the Mavericks to grab an early lead and never look back. Brunson and Randle scored 30 and 32 points, respectively, but poor defense from New York cost them a valuable road victory.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-2. It took a Herculean night from Irving to spoil the (-3.5) spread bet on the Knicks, and it also contributed to the total sailing over the 234-point mark. Our lone win was on OG Anunoby to collect 5+ rebounds at plus money, as the 3 and D forward hauled in 6 boards.

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The Knicks bounced back on Saturday night, clamping down the Grizzlies in their 106-94 victory. No player on either team scored 25+ points. And when New York can get in a defensive battle, they often come out on top, improving to 4-2 in games with 200 or fewer points this season.

Tonight, the Knicks (23-16) are back in the comfort of Madison Square Garden, as they welcome the Orlando Magic (21-18) to New York. The Magic have been one of the surprise teams of the season and are on track to finish above .500 for the second time since 2011. Their second ranked defense has propelled them up the standings. And with no player averaging 23+ PPG on the roster, it has taken a full team effort on both ends of the court to earn victories. Last year’s Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero has led the way on offense for Orlando, and he’s gotten even better in his sophomore campaign. His shooting splits have vastly improved, and his 7.2 Rebounds, 4.9 Assists, and 1.1 Steals are all better than his averages last season. His well-rounded game has only gotten better. And with a supporting cast of equally exuberant youngsters, the Magic have set themselves up for tangible success this season. His 22.9 PPG leads the way, but with Franz Wagner’s 20.9 PPG on the injury report, the Magic have no other scorers averaging 14+ PPG. Wagner’s absence has seen the Magic drop 3 straight games, and New York will be confident they can keep their hot streak alive with a visit from a shorthanded Magic squad.

The Knicks are a hard team to properly figure out. Through the first month of the season, they had a top 3 defensive unit, and it was their bottom 5 offense that cost them victories. However, they prioritized offense and loosened the reins on the defensive end, and saw their offense jump into the top half, but their defense dropped below average. Since trading for OG Anunoby on the final day of 2023, the Knicks have won 6 of their 7 games with the talented defender in the lineup, and it feels as though they’ve finally found the right balance on both ends of the court. Brunson continues to lead the way with a team high 25.8 PPG with 6.4 Assists, while shooting a sizzling 42.4% from behind the arc. His ability to hit shots late in the shot clock has allowed the Knicks to come away with points deep into possessions, and a disjointed Magic squad will be unable to mitigate his effectiveness. On the defensive end, New York has continued to improve, and Isiah Hartenstein has settled into his starting role at center. He’s hauled in 14+ rebounds in 5 of his last 6 games, while averaging 2.3 Blocks per game over the same span. The Knicks don’t need Hartenstein to score, but they require maximum effort when setting screens, and defending the rim.

In this matchup, the Knicks are coming in as 6.5-point favorites, with a total of 220.5 points. New York is a deserving home favorite against Orlando, who’s just 3-7 in their last 10 games, and they’ll be confident they can shut the Magic down on the defensive end of the court. Brunson and Randle have been effectively leading the way on offense, and the increased focus on defense has allowed the Knicks to hold their opponents to just 101.3 PPG since acquiring Anunoby. The Magic shoot and sink the 2nd fewest three pointers in the league. And without Wagner to cause havoc inside, they’ve been forced to take low percentage shots from the perimeter. Without a solid 3 ball, Orlando will need to earn their points the hard way, which will be a tall task against a big and physical Knicks interior. Randle and Hartenstein consistently vacuum up loose rebounds, and force their opponents to take off balance shots. Without lethal perimeter shooters to keep the Knicks defense honest, Orlando will struggle to eclipse 100 points at the famous MSG in today’s matinee. For the first bet of the night, we will gladly lay the 6.5 points with the home team, who I expected to be double digit favorites against a reeling Magic unit.

For the second bet of the night, we will be targeting the Under. The Knicks play at a slow pace, and the Magic will know the only chance they have in this game is to clamp down on defense, and let the offense naturally flow. New York has the ability to light up the scoreboard, but even without Wagner the Magic defense has remained atop the league. Expecting a shootout, or even an average scoring game, this afternoon is unrealistic, and at 220.5 points, the Under is a solid look.

Finally, we’ll be taking Under 1.5 3’s for Banchero. The talented sophomore is averaging exactly 1.5 3’s per game this season. However, without Wagner inside, he’ll find himself within the arc more often than not and will look to take the ball to the hoop or find the open man for a shot from deep. He’s failed to hit multiple 3’s in each of his last 3 games. And with an otherwise healthy set of shooters around him, Banchero will happily play distributor instead of forcing contested deep shots early in the shot clock.

Pick: New York Knicks (-6.5) 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Magic Under 220.5 1 Unit

Pick: Paolo Banchero Under 1.5 3’s 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 7-4

Spread Record: 10-11

Total Record: 7-6

Player Props Record: 11-19

Total: 34-42

Down 11.1 Units

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