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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 1/11/2024

by Spencer Toth - 1/11/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks Jalen Brunson

This season, Doc’s Sports is the place to find all your New York Knicks betting needs. By using my knowledge of the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to accurately identify mispriced lines, and turn a solid profit by the season’s end.

On Tuesday night, the Knicks strung together their 5th straight win, making quick work of the Trail Blazers, winning 112-84 on their home court. OG Anunoby led the way with 23 points with a 9/12 clip from the field. Their offense did enough to get the job done, but it was their defense that allowed them to pull away on the scoreboard. The Knicks had their best defensive game with Portland scoring just 84 points, and the arrival of Anunoby has injected life into a fading Knicks defensive unit.

From a betting perspective, we had another positive night, going 2-1 on our bets. The Knicks easily covered the 12-point spread thanks to their defensive domination, and the 227-point total allowed an easy cash for the Under. Our lone loss was on Anunoby’s 3 pointers, as his 4/6 clip from deep sailed over the 1.5 line.

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Tonight, the Knicks (22-15) head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks (22-16), in a battle of two very evenly matched teams. Luka Doncic has been leading the Mavericks team in PPG (33.6), Assists (9.1), Rebounds (8.1), and Steals (1.4). His impact on both ends of the court has allowed Dallas to ascend on the standings. However, with Doncic out for tonight, the Knicks will feel confident they can take advantage of a weakened Mavericks side. The bulk of the offensive workload will fall on the shoulders of Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway, who are the only other Mavericks averaging more than 10 PPG this season. Irving has had an eventful career filled with controversy, but the talented guard is still among the best in the league. He’s finally settled into his role in Dallas. And with Doncic out, he will need to be on his A Game to give the Mavericks a chance in this one. Dallas has a 1-3 record without Doncic this season, and the Knicks will be their toughest test yet with their superstar on the sidelines.

The Knicks defense has turned a dramatic corner, and it’s a large part due to the impact Anunoby has had on the defensive end. The Knicks allowed 120 or fewer points in each of their first 19 games, before allowing Over that mark in 9 of the next 13 games. However, since Anunoby’s arrival, they’ve allowed just 97.4 PPG, and won 5 straight contests. Anunoby is one of, if not the, best wing defender in the league. And by limiting the easy shots from behind the arc, the Knicks have reaped the rewards of their defensive efforts. Mitchell Robinson remains out, and will be for the rest of the season, leaving a bulk of the interior workload on the shoulders of Isiah Hartenstein. Hartenstein has stepped up in recent weeks, recording 4+ Blocks and Steals in each of his last 6 games. The big man may not have the same towering presence of Robinson, but he can still put in a shift on the defensive end and has managed to consistently stay out of foul trouble. Defending without fouling is one of the hardest attributes for the big men of the league to master, and Hartenstein has done a fantastic job in that department.

The Knicks are coming in as 3.5-point road favorites against Dallas. And without Doncic coming back at them, I struggle to see the Mavericks keep pace, regardless of the venue. New York has clamped down on the defensive end, and Dallas’s high volume, low percentage approach from behind the arc may work on some nights. However, when they are forced to take heavily contested 3’s, they will not see them drop with enough consistency to keep pace. Doncic isn’t the only Maverick on the shelf, as the loss of their starting center Dereck Lively will make Hartenstien’s job inside much more manageable. Without the interior presence to exploit the Knicks biggest defensive weakness, and without their star to put in points from the outside, Dallas will come up short tonight. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be able to mitigate the shots Irving does make. And unless the controversial superstar goes off for 40+ points, this one won’t even be close. Anunoby will lock up Irving, allowing the Knicks to outclass the plethora of mediocre talents taking the court for Dallas. The spread is set at a measly 3.5 points, and it will be an easy win and cover for the Knicks.

The total is set at a sky high 234 points, despite the Knicks holding teams to just 97.4 PPG in 2024. New York could always erupt on offense, like we’ve seen Randle and Brunson do countless times this season, but the defensive nature of New York will see them pull away, take their foot off the gas on offense, and fall short of this total. The Knicks have cashed the Under in 5 straight games, and a shorthanded Mavericks squad will not consistently penetrate their defensive unit enough to do their part. The Under will be the second bet of the evening.

Finally, we’ll be taking OG Anunoby’s rebounding Over at plus money, which is sitting at 4.5 boards. Annunoby is averaging 5.0 rebounds per game this season and has eclipsed this total in 3 of his 5 games with the Knicks. The high pace of play Dallas brings to the court, combined with their tendency to shoot the 3-ball will cause there to be ample loose balls for Anunoby to chase down. Because of this, Dallas gives up plenty of rebounds to opposing forwards, and the always eager Anunoby will be no exception. Plus money on Anunoby to haul in his average amount of rebounds, with a generous set of circumstances is a great bet for tonight.

Pick: New York Knicks (-3.5) 3 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Mavericks Under 234 1 Unit

Pick: OG Anunoby Over 4.5 Rebounds +100 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 7-4

Spread Record: 10-10

Total Record: 7-5

Player Props Record: 10-19

Total: 33-40

Down 7.1 Units

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