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Football Championship Futures Often Not Sound Wagers

by Robert Ferringo - 7/12/2024

Football championship futures Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

When people find out what I do the usually ask me one of two questions: Who is going to win the Super Bowl or who is going to win the national championship.

My answer is always the same: I’m not a fortune teller and I can’t see the future, so I’m not sure.

There is always a misconception about sports handicappers. (Try as I might, at least 50 percent of people that I explain my job to leave thinking that I’m a ‘bookie’. It’s unreal.) Yet, while I may not be able to see months into the future to predict this year’s NFL and college football champions, I have a deep enough understanding of the numbers to offer you one rock solid, no-doubt, must-follow pro tip.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

You shouldn’t bet preseason futures on teams to win the titles. Ever.

For a lot of gamblers, a preseason wager on who will win the Super Bowl or who will win the national championship isn’t considered a ‘serious’ wager. Most people will throw $100 or $500 on their favorite NFL team or their alma mater. Some people may throw down a ‘hunch’ play in college or the pros, but it isn’t considered a high-priority wager.

As a professional, throwing money away is never sound wagering strategy. And I can think of better ways to support your favorite team than dumping cash on a pipe dream title ticket.

The main reason that betting on football championship futures is that the payouts are not even close to what the real odds of winning a title are.

College football may be the easiest example to explain the disconnect between futures odds and futures payouts.

This winter college football will (finally) be going to a 12-team playoff system to determine the national champion. For the 25 years prior the NCAA has utilized either a two-team playoff (1998-2013) or a four-team playoff (2014-2023).

With the expansion to 12 teams, the odds of a spoiler national champion increase exponentially. However, let’s consider what had to happen in the past for a team to win it all:

- The team likely had to go undefeated (at most losing one game) during the regular season.

- The team had to win its conference championship.

- The team had to win its playoff game or games.

Five of the last six national champions went undefeated at 13-0 or better, including last year’s 15-0 Michigan Wolverines.

So, basically, betting on a team to win the national title carries the same risk as a 13- or 15-team moneyline parlay.

Think about it: teams can only lose one game. They have to avoid catastrophic injuries, bad turnover luck, horrible officiating and all manner of off-field pitfall that can derail a team. Further, most teams that win the national championship have to start to the season ranked in the Top 20 and have to not only win games, but also do so convincingly enough to impress voters to place them in the Top 4.

National title teams must win all (or almost all) their regular season games. Then beat a good team in the conference championship game. And then beat two more very good teams in the playoffs.

And you’re getting a +600 payout for that? I don’t think so.

The true payoff on a 13-team parlay is around 750-to-1. Considering the odds – since national title teams are generally massive favorites in most of their games – we could bring the odds down to closer to 80-to-1. That’s still not even close to what books are offering on the Top 10 teams to win this year’s crown:

Georgia: +325

Ohio State: +375

Texas: +700

Oregon: +1000

Alabama: +1400

Ole Miss: +1600

LSU: +1600

Michigan: +2000

Florida State: +2500

Penn State: +2500

Even if Ohio State wins the 2024-25 national championship is it worth it to bet on them at least than 4-to-1? I say absolutely not. That is horrible value and isn’t worth $1 of your hard-earned money.

This is where you might say, “Yeah, but what about taking a stab with some longshots?” Well, in the past 24 years only three teams – LSU in 2019, Ohio State in 2014, and Auburn in 2010 – won the national title at +2000 or higher odds, with Auburn (+5000) offering the biggest surprise.

Conversely, 14 of the past 22 title winners came in at either 10-to-1 or lower.

The numbers for Super Bowl winners aren’t the same. Going undefeated, or even winning over 60 percent of your games, isn’t a prerequisite to making the playoffs. Any team can make the postseason, get hot, and take home the Lombardi Trophy.

That said, picking the champion in the preseason is still almost a fluke thing. The same issues that college teams need to dodge – injuries, bad luck, close losses – can also submarine an NFL season. And even if they make the playoffs they still need to win at least three games, and most likely four, to take the title.

The standard payout on a four-team parlay is around 10-to-1. The last three Super Bowl champs have paid out at 6-to-1, 9-to-1 and 12-to-1. And over the last 11 years just one team, the 2017 Eagles at 40-to-1, paid out at more than 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

Further, 27 of the last 38 Super Bowl champions won the title at 12-to-1 or less. And only nine of those winners were the preseason favorites.

Here are the odds on the Top 10 this year:

San Francisco 49ers: +600

Kansas City Chiefs: +600

Baltimore Ravens: +950

Detroit Lions: +1300

Cincinnati Bengals: +1400

Philadelphia Eagles: +1400

Buffalo Bills: +1500

Houston Texans: +1600

Dallas Cowboys: +1600

Green Bay Packers: +1900

So who is going to win? Do you take one of the three favorites and hope? Or do you take a shot with one of the higher-payout clubs and hope?

When you add this all up the reality is that betting on championship futures are a sucker’s bet. The sportsbooks absolutely clean up on these wagers year after year. The favorites in both college football and the NFL don’t win nearly enough. And when they do they don’t pay out anywhere close to what the real odds should be.

Underdogs can offer some big playouts. But they don’t cash at a high enough rate and, realistically, how often are you pulling a 2007 New York Giants or 2010 Auburn Tigers out of your ass in July?

If you haven’t been doing so already, avoid betting on championship futures like the plague.

Robert Ferringo has been one of the best football handicappers in the country and for a full decade from 2010-2019 he banked over +$40,000 in football profit. Robert has produced five of eight winning seasons and 9 of 14 profitable years. Robert expects a MONSTER football season. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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