Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Final Four Prop Bets and Predictions for March Madness

by Mike Allen - 4/4/2024

Final Four props predictions Zach Edey Purdue Boilermakers

We are just days away now from one of the biggest weekends in sports and sports betting. This year at the Final Four, we have everything. We have the two best teams, a dark horse who plays with a lot of variance, and a true Cinderella story.

I am not picking NC State to get past Purdue, nor do I have Alabama penciled in to beat the mighty UConn Huskies. Yes, we have some big point spreads for Saturday, but it's also about the journey.

I enjoyed every minute of Wolfpack power forward DJ Burns showing us Chef Curry-level touch at 265 pounds. I don’t, however, envision I will enjoy seeing him play against Zach Edey. That’s from a fan’s perspective, though.

As a bettor, we have to keep it real. Purdue's Edey is a nightmare matchup for 99% of college basketballers. And, unfortunately for NC State, many of DJ Burns' strengths will likely be muted by the 7-foot-5 monster.

That brings us to our first Final Four prop bet and prediction.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Zach Edey to Block a Shot from DJ Burns in the Final Four: +140

What do you guys think? Is this a trap? Burns is smooth and all. Edey not only possesses the height to cause the 6-foot-9 forward a boatload of problems, but he also has the width. Burns has been incredibly intelligent in the way he uses his body to put him in a position to score. He is highly creative as a finisher as well, but many of his shots come from low angles.

Edey will be smart to stay straight up and on the ground when defending Burns in the post. That's why we are getting a decent number here. However, when physics is equal or more for Edey, geometry breaks the tie in his favor.

Pick: Yes

Zach Edey Free Throw Attempts vs NC State

Over 11: -150

Under 11: +110

This betting line has been steamed, but don't complicate this one too much. The books are trying to scare people away. Good odds on a player prop like this are usually (-110) to (-120).

He averaged 11.5 free throw attempts per game this season. A bet on the over seems too risky. Edey has, however, been to the line 101 times over his last 7 games played. That comes out to 14.5/game, including a season-high 22 in the Elite 8 vs Tennessee.

The guy is a career 62% shooter from the field, and his field goal attempts per game are up over 16 in the tournament. Edey is 70% from the free-throw line, so hacking him doesn't make sense.

I think he can draw 5 fouls in the act of shooting and probably 2 whistles off the ball while NC State is in foul trouble.

Pick: Over 11 (-150)

Zach Edey First Field Goal of the Game: +260

There isn't a lot of science to this one, and it's not going to last you much longer than a coin flip. I have this at about a coin flip, though. Purdue is well-coached, and their play has been trending towards more and more of the monster.

Pick: Yes (+260)

Biggest Blowout (Semifinals)

UConn vs Alabama: -160

Purdue vs NC State: +100

Moving on from the player props, we have a chance to bet on which Final Four game will be the biggest blowout. Hey, if the largest margin of victory is 2 points, we still get paid.

I am going against the grain here and taking Purdue to cook the Wolfpack. UConn has been rolling, but they have a different animal in front of them in the Crimson Tide. If they can get some stops on the interior, their perimeter defense is already superb.

I also like the highest-scoring team in the nation to be able to chew into the lead with meaningless and low-stress three balls late in the contest.

The Wolfpack are likely to get into foul trouble. From there, they are not deep at all. This one could get ugly early and stay that way.

Pick: Purdue vs NC State

Lowest Scoring Team (Semifinals)

NC State: -180

Alabama: +220

Purdue: +650

UConn: +2250

Passing on the (-160) on the last bet, we can pay some juice here for the obvious pick. Bama is the value play, but let’s follow the steam for this bet.

Pick: NC State (-180)

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent March Madness Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers