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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 4/13/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/12/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Semyon Varlamov New York Islanders

Today is the final NHL Friday Roundup of the season as we enter the final week of the 2024 campaign. As it stands now, 13 of the 16 playoff spots have been claimed, and the New York Rangers maintain their spot atop of the league standings with 110 points. Entering the weekend, there is no hotter team right now than the New York Islanders, who have won six straight and now have a three-point lead over the Pittsburgh Penguins for the last guaranteed spot. Winnipeg has also gotten hot at the right time, winning five straight and have moved ahead of the Avalanche in the Central Division standings, with both teams having three games remaining. Without further ado, let’s get into some interesting notes to follow as the regular season wraps up and the playoffs get underway.

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Presidents’ Trophy Race

With two or three games remaining on the schedule, only four teams remain in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy. As mentioned, the New York Rangers lead the way with 110 points, and they are followed by the Dallas Stars (109), the Carolina Hurricanes (107) and the Boston Bruins (107). The Rangers and Stars have both played 80 games, while the Bruins and Hurricanes each have three remaining on the schedule. Boston has the toughest remaining schedule while also having the worst odds among the remaining contenders. Here is the remaining schedule for the teams, ordered by the odds:

New York Rangers: -165, Remaining- NYI, OTT

Dallas Stars: +350, Remaining- SEA, STL

Carolina Hurricanes: +550, Remaining- @ STL, @ CHI, @ COL

Boston Bruins: +850, Remaining- @ PIT, @ WAS, OTT

Dallas has the easiest remaining schedule by far, but the Rangers just need to collect points in each game or hope for a Stars loss. However, the Rangers will have to face the Isles, who are the hottest team in the league, and the Islanders won their previous matchup. Despite the Rangers having the one-point lead, I like Dallas to win out and redeem their shutout loss to the Jets with strong performances against the inferior opponents and take the trophy.

My Pick: Dallas Stars +350

Road Warriors

If you want to make a deep playoff run, you have to win on the road. Stealing a road game or two sets you up for great success in the series. Vegas, the reigning champion, went 8-3 on the road in the playoffs last season, with two of the three losses going into overtime. The year before that, the Colorado Avalanche went 9-1 on the road before claiming Stanley, and the year before that the Lightning went 7-4 on the road before winning it all. There seems to be a common theme amongst the recent champions. Right now, the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers are tied for the most wins on the road this season with 26, and both teams have picked up more points on the road than at home. The Rangers trail them with 25 road wins, while Toronto and Winnipeg have 24. If the postseason started today, the only teams to make the playoffs that didn’t have 20 road wins would be Colorado (19), Vegas (18), New York Islanders (17), and Pittsburgh (15). Keep an eye on the Colorado road win total. Yes, they have been here before, but they have struggled away from home this season and are currently unlikely to see too much home ice time.

Special Teams Success

Running an effective special teams unit is crucial for keeping games close and could be a big X-Factor in making a deep run. Players will be more careful to avoid getting sent to the box. However, when the penalties do happen, who is the most likely to take advantage of it? Tampa Bay has recorded a league leading 70 Power Play goals and also leads the league with a PP% of 29%, followed by Carolina (26.9%), New York Rangers (26.9%), and Edmonton (26.7%). On the flip side, Winnipeg has struggled on the man advantage this season and is the only playoff team (who has clinched) to record a PP% of less than 20%.

It is equally as important to be able to kill the man advantage for the opponent. Carolina leads the league with an 86.4% PK%, while the Kings (85%), Rangers (84%), and Lightning (83.2%) are also in the top five in the league. The worst two penalty kill units, among playoff teams, are the Nashville Predators and Toronto Maple Leafs, who both have a PK% of 76.9%. Special Teams success, or lack thereof, is an important stat to keep an eye on when choosing a playoff team to run with.

Wild Card Race

The race to the finish is getting wild, with both conferences still not totally set for the playoffs. The Western Conference race has not been nearly as entertaining as the Eastern Conference race, so let’s start there. Vegas, with four games remaining, sits in the final wild card spot with a three-point lead over the Blues. St. Louis has three games remaining against Carolina and Seattle at home while ending the season with a road trip to Dallas. A loss paired with a point for Vegas and the season is over for the Blues. Vegas seems to have this one wrapped up with the three-point lead and the extra game.

As for the Eastern Conference race, there are still four teams vying for one spot. Right now, the Penguins sit in the final wild card spot with a one-point lead over Washington, Detroit, and Philadelphia. Chaos will ensue in the following days as each game could make or break the season. Below is the remaining schedule for each team and the odds of them securing the final spot:

Pittsburgh: -150, Remaining- BOS, NAS, @ NYI

Detroit: +300, Remaining- @ TOR, MTL, @ MTL

Washington: +370, Remaining- TB, BOS, @ PHI

Philadelphia: +750, Remaining- NJ, WAS

Pittsburgh has a tough remaining schedule with each of their remaining games against playoff bound opposition who are needing each point for seeding purposes. Washington is right there with the Penguins with the tougher schedule, so I like the Red Wings to pull this out. They deserve it after a flurry of big moves in the offseason and earlier this season. The only factor hurting them is the Penguins and Capitals both hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, their last two games should be wins, and Tampa Bay is seemingly stuck in a Wild Card spot and will perhaps lack motivation.

My Pick: Detroit +300

Saturday Free Pick: New York Islanders @ New York Rangers – NYI +140

The Isles will lock up a guaranteed spot here with a win. They are 1-2 against the Rangers this season. However, having won their last six games and not allowing more than three goals over the streak has me rolling with the Islanders. Semyon Varlamov was the goalie for the lone Islanders win in the series, and he has started the last three games and has allowed just four goals. Look for him to get the start and shut down the Rangers once again. I like the upset win for the Islanders.

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