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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 3/9/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/8/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Kyle Connor Winnipeg Jets

The trade deadline is upon us, as teams have until 3pm EST to get any trades into the league office, then it’s officially the home stretch. We have already seen some big moves like Carolina going all in and grabbing Jake Guentzel from Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay acquiring Anthony Duclair from San Jose. The Nashville Predators have an interesting day in front of them, as they are on a heater but have been widely expected to sell at the deadline. It’s decision time for teams across the league, who will go all in? Before the exciting day gets underway, let’s look at some trends from around the league.

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Trade Deadline Update

At the time of writing this article, the best move by far has been the Hurricanes coming out of no where and getting Jake Guentzel. The forward has 52 points this season and should plug in nicely to a roster that lacks offensive prowess.

Back on Wednesday, the Knights once again went big at the deadline and traded for blueliner Noah Hanifan from Calgary, who is sure to fit in nicely for a team struggling of late. Hanifin has 35 points this season and will pair with Alex Pietrangelo. Vegas also added Anthony Mantha to boost their offense with the injury to Mark Stone.

Colorado is another team who has been extremely active and has made multiple moves this week. The most impactful move was trading for Buffalo’s Casey Mittelstadt, who has tallied 47 points this season. They also added blueliner Sean Walker (22 points), Yakov Trenin (14 points), and Brandon Duhaime (8 points), all of whom should provide great depth to one of the league’s best teams.

With another day left, notable names such as Jakob Chychrun (OTT), Nic Dowd (WAS), Reilly Smith (PIT), and Jacob Markstrom (CAL) could all find new homes by days end. While those are some of the names who will likely be moved, keep your eye on the likes of Linus Ullmark (BOS), Tyler Toffoli (NJD), Frank Vatrano (ANA), and perhaps even Sidney Crosby (PIT).

Nashville Loving the Noise

Early in February, it was widely expected around the league that the Nashville Predators would sell at the deadline and look to field a competitive team next season. Well, Nashville reversed course, as they have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL since the All-Star break. The Predators are 10-2-1 since the break and have cemented themselves in the top wild card spot in the Western Conference while only being eight points behind Colorado for the last guaranteed spot in the Central Division.

Looking at their incredible 13-game stretch a little closer, you will not only see the wins, but they have been dominating the opposition. They have recorded multi-goal victories against the likes of Colorado (5-1), Los Angeles (4-1), and Vegas (5-3). Nashville is currently riding an 11-game point streak and has a +25-goal differential across this span. Filip Forsberg is heating up at the right time, as he recorded a hat trick in their game last night and is riding a seven-game point streak with 12 points total. He also leads the team with 67 points on the year, while Roman Josi (62), Gustav Nyquist (56), and Ryan O’Reilly (55) have been nice compliments.

Not only that, but Nashville is 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. And at +4000 to win the Western Conference, the value is there for a team getting hot at the right time and is motivated to buy at the deadline.

A Colorado Cover Story

Colorado is currently third in the Central Division standings with 83 points on the year, just two behind the division leading Dallas Stars. Their 35 regulation wins is tied for the most in the Western Conference with the Vancouver Canucks, while their 25-6 record at home is the best in the NHL. They lead the NHL in GF/G as they average 3.70 GF/G, while also ranking in the top 10 in PP% and PK%. Not only have they already showcased a strong team, but they have also been busy at the deadline, adding multiple key role players to increase their depth for the home stretch.

With all the positive, they have been making money left and right and there is an interesting story to tell in how they lead the NHL in two other categories. In regard to their performance against the spread, the Avalanche are 32-32 on the year. Nothing there, right? Wrong. They lead the NHL with 20 covers on home ice, for an overall 20-11 record ATS at home. Additionally, they are in the basement when it comes to covering the road as they have gone 12-21 ATS on the road. Tail them at home, fade them on the road. It is also worth noting that Colorado has tremendous odds at +310 to win the Central Division, as they may have the best roster in the division after their flurry of moves.

Winnipeg Woes

Sweeping the article with the NHL’s Central Division, let’s look at where the Jets stand. Winnipeg is tied with Colorado in the division standings with 83 points. They have allowed the least number of goals thanks to soon to be Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, and they currently have the best odds at -160 to take home the division title. So why all the talk about the second half woes? There is a lot of noise surrounding the team, as their attendance records aren’t great, but they should be. They would do some good if they added a big offensive piece before today’s deadline, but Kyle Connor has been solid since his return from injury and plays well alongside the team’s points leader in Mark Scheifele. The noise of the second half curse picked up when the Jets hit a five-game skid right before the break. However, since December 30, the Jets are 19-8-1 in their 28 games since, including going 9-13 since February 10th. With Hellebuyck locking down the crease, there is little worry for this club, and they should be competitive down the stretch and in the playoffs.

Saturday Free Pick: Nashville Predators @ Colombus Blue Jackets- NSH -1.5 +150

Nashville is buying, Nashville is hot, Nashville is a wagon right now. The Predators have actually performed better on the road this season and now have their added depth potentially suiting up for this one. Nashville has covered 19 of their 30 road games this season, which is the 5th most in the NHL. Saros locks it down and the look team gets ramped up against this basement dweller.

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