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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 3/2/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/1/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Sergei Bobrovsky Florida Panthers

With the NHL season schedule hitting the home stretch, and the trade deadline a week away, it is time for teams to hunker down and get ready for a playoff push. Three of the four division leaders have small leads of five points or less, while Vancouver’s 10-point lead over Vegas is the largest separation between the top two teams in any division. The Eastern Conference Wild Card spots seem to both belong to the Atlantic Division, with Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning clinging to six- and eight-point leads. As for the Western Conference, the Nashville Predators and Los Angeles Kings control the wild cards by seven points. With all that said, let’s revisit some trendy futures and see where the money is at.

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Beasts of the East

For the first time in months, the Vancouver Canucks are not the top dawgs in the league. As of now, the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers are tied for the league lead with 84 points, with the New York Rangers and Canucks right on their heels at 83 points. The Panthers and Rangers had a huge month in February and are both 9-1 over their last 10 games. The Rangers are now heavy favorites to take the messy Metro Division with -310 odds. The Atlantic is much closer, as the Panthers are slight favorites over Boston as the teams sit at -170 and +170, respectively. All three teams rank in the top seven in GA/G, top eight in PP%, and top nine in PK%. The Rangers and Panthers are tied for the second most regulation wins in the NHL at 32, while Boston has managed 27 regulation wins. As for the playoffs, everyone knows you have to win on the road if you want to survive and advance. All three teams have done a great job taking care of business on the road, with the Panthers leading the trio with 42 points on the road, while Boston and New York both have 41. With all three squads dominating in the Eastern Conference, would you believe they aren’t the favorites to win the conference? The Carolina Hurricanes are tied with the Panthers with the best odds to win the conference at +410, while Boston (+470), and New York (+500) following.

My pick for the Eastern Conference winner is the New York Rangers at +500.

Hart of Hockey

This award seemed to be all Nathan MacKinnon, then fan favorite Nikita Kucherov made it a two-horse race. Now there is a new favorite, *Insert Auston Matthews*. Matthews now leads the pack with the best odds at +170. MacKinnon and Kucherov trail at +210 and +260 odds, with Connor Mc David rounding out a solid top four at +340. Kucherov maintains his lead with 104 points (38/66), while MacKinnon finally got to triple digits and trails Kucherov by four points. Connor McDavid ranks third in the league in points at 94 (22/72), while Matthews sits at 78 points overall (53/25). McDavid has been on an absolute tear, as he has tallied at least one point in every game in 2024 except two. His 32 points since the turn of the year is a solid mark, but one topped by Matthews, who has racked up 34 points during this span, including three hat tricks. MacKinnon and Matthews are both tied for 5th in the NHL with seven game winning goals, with Kucherov sitting at six.

My pick is still Nathan MacKinnon. All four players have a great supporting cast, but I think MacKinnon’s performance carries more weight relative to his team’s success, than the others.

Sights on Stanley

As it stands now, before the trade deadline, I have five teams on my list that are legitimate contenders. Look below for my reasoning and their current odds:

Edmonton Oilers (+850)- Why they will- Offensive explosiveness. They rank 6th in the NHL in GF/G, but any roster that has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl that is backed by Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is capable of running up the score every night.

Why they won’t- Inexperience. Their netminders don’t have the necessary playoff experience and depth becomes a slight issue when looking at the dog fight of the playoffs.

Dallas Stars (+950)- Why they will- Depth. What the Oilers lack, the Stars have. Dallas has the deepest roster in the NHL. They have 10 players who have recorded 35 or more points, with five players totaling 20 or more goals. Matt Duchene and newly acquired Chris Tanev may be the pieces Dallas has been looking for.

Why they won’t- Jake Oettinger- He becomes a huge X-Factor for the Stars success. He has playoff experience already, but he has struggled against other playoff-caliber teams.

Florida Panthers (+900)- Why they will- Goalie Duo. Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz have been an elite tandem this season. Bobrovsky has allowed just 2.35 GA/G in 43 starts, while Stolarz has been a huge complement, allowing just 2.02 GA/G over 19 starts.

Why they won’t- Offensive depth- Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaege, and Matthew Tkachuk have combined for 201 points this season, which accounts for 38% of the team’s offense. After those three, there is a significant drop in production.

Boston Bruins (+1000)- Why they will- Revenge. The Florida Panthers hit a hot streak in the playoffs last season and have failed to cool down. After knocking out a historic Boston team in the first-round last season, you can bet the Bruins will be ready for a rematch. Boston is 2-0 with a +3-goal differential against Florida, with two regular season matchups remaining.

Why they won’t- Offensive depth- After David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Charlie Coyle, the offense takes a step down. Not as drastic as Florida, but the Bruins may try and get creative to add an offensive spark by the deadline.

New York Rangers (+1100)- Why they will- Most complete team on paper. They are the only team in the NHL to rank in the top 10 in GF/G while also ranking in the top five in GA/G. Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick are a solid goalie tandem, while Artemi Panarin does a great job getting things going for the offense.

Why they won’t- Their path. If they want to advance, they will have to take down Tampa Bay and possibly Boston and/or Florida. The Eastern Conference is the deeper conference, and their Stanley Cup Representative will have a huge hill to climb.

Saturday Free Pick: New York Rangers @ Toronto Maple Leafs / Rangers +100

The Rangers got a lot of love in this article, and I am going to finish with picking them getting an upset win over Toronto on the road. New York is 19-10-3 on the road this season and beat the Leafs 5-2 earlier this season in Toronto. The Leafs have struggled at home this season for as good as they are, and I like the Rangers to stay hot and win the rubber match of the series.

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