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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 2/17/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/16/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Saturday free pick Boone Jenner Columbus Blue Jackets

We are less than a month away from the NHL Trade Deadline, as teams get prepared for the home stretch of the campaign and head into the playoffs. Teams are beginning to fall in and out of contention, (most) player awards are coming down to the wire, and playoff hockey will be here sooner than you know. The Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers are tied for the best odds of hoisting the Stanley Cup at +850, with Florida right behind them at +950. In other league news, the Blue Jackets have moved on from their GM as their dreadful season continues. And, just a reminder, Sam Reinhart (+500) is one hot stretch away from competing for the Rocket Richard Trophy. As always, let’s look around the league to find some potential money-making choices.

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Running Rumors

One of the biggest names floating around in the trade market is Columbus captain Boone Jenner. However, Jenner has stated he wants to remain with the team. However, it will all come down to what direction the new leadership wants to go in.

Now the player who may bring in the best return is G Juuse Saros of the Nashville Predators. Nashville is coming off an embarrassing 9-2 showing against the Dallas Stars, and it feels like it may be time to sell further. Saros has been linked to Carolina and New Jersey, but Los Angeles could also be another potential fit. The 28-year-old netminder will appreciate a return to playoff hockey, and I think the best fit for him is New Jersey. Nashville should package Saros and D Tyson Barrie to New Jersey in exchange for future draft capital and top prospects.

As far as teams, expect that Ottawa, San Jose, and Philadelphia may send key pieces to playoff teams as those teams continue to rebuild for the future. Watch out for the St. Louis Blues to be potential buyers as well as they have stood pat in the wild card race and could look at a run more seriously.

NHL’s Bubble Teams

With the rumors flying, let’s take a look at the teams who seemingly remain on the fence about buying or selling and those who currently have a relative shot at making the playoffs.

New Jersey Devils- 58 points, two points behind 2nd Wild Card, To Make Playoffs -120 - It seems inevitable that New Jersey will make some big time moves to reload. Aside from the previously mentioned Nashville trade, there are a lot of potential routes for the Devils, but goaltending help seems to be their top priority.

New York Islanders- 57 points, three points behind 2nd Wild Card, To Make Playoffs +255 – Even after the coaching change, the Islanders have remained an average team and find themselves on the fringe of playoffs. They need more offense and could make a move or two, but I think the Devils are better positioned to usurp a team from the wild card.

Seattle Kraken- 56 points, four points behind 2nd Wild Card, To Make Playoffs +340 – The Western Conference race provides a different dynamic than that of the Eastern Conference. The playoff picture looks to be intact, and the opportunity to buy big will keep the eight current teams locked in. However, Seattle is still within striking distance to get the Kings or Blues.

Minnesota Wild- 55 points, five behind 2nd Wild Card, To Make Playoffs +350 – They would need some help, but they have been there before. This is one of the youngest teams in the league, but their top guys have playoff experience. And if they can get there, we could have a Cinderella type of a run. The goaltending has improved tremendously, but the offense could use some more work. They still seem a year away.

McHart?

Connor McDavid has already won the award three times in his career. So, would you really be surprised to see him grab his 4th? Probably not, but he has come out of nowhere to get back into relevancy with the award. McDavid sits third in the NHL in points (80), leads the league in assists (89), and his 21 goals rank in the top 35. Now he is by no means the favorite for the award. Nathan MacKinnon is still the heavy favorite (+105), as his 89 points rank 2nd in the league and ranks 5th in goals (32) and is tied for second in assists (57). He is tied in assists with Nikita Kucherov (+200), and Kucherov currently sits as the league leader in points with 93. McDavid sits at +310 odds to claim his fourth MVP award. While it won’t be easy, if Edmonton goes on another run the team and McDavid alike might climb the standings.

ATS Season Splits

Every other week we dive into the league’s performance ATS and straight up. And now that we find ourselves over halfway through the season, we know who is making the money and who is losing it. Let’s dive even deeper and examine who has and has not performed well ATS at home and on the road, specifically.

It is no surprise that the Vancouver Canucks lead the league in covers at home, as the team has covered in 18 of their 25 home games this season. This is a positive trend to pay attention to as the club still has 26 remaining home games you could cash out on. Right behind the Canucks are the Blues, who have covered in 17 of their 26 home games this season, and Colorado, who has covered in 16 of their 25 games on home ice. There is no worse team than the New Jersey Devils in regard to a home cover. The Devils have covered just 17% of their home games this season. The Toronto Maple Leafs are the second worst in this category, covering in just 27% of their home games.

On the road, the Philadelphia Flyers are 23-4 ATS and lead the league in road covers by a huge margin. The Seattle Kraken and Vancouver Canucks are tied for the second most road covers, as the clubs have each gone 18-12 ATS away from home. The Chicago Blackhawks are the worst NHL team in this category, as they have covered nine of their 28 road games this season. The Maple Leafs also find themselves near the bottom of this list as well, covering just nine of their 26 road games.

Saturday Free Pick: Los Angeles Kings @ Boston Bruins – Boston Bruins -150

I like the Bruins to win this one in a big way as sort of frustration win. They have struggled since the break and are now tied with the Panthers atop the Atlantic. This will be a low-scoring game with both goalie units being top of the league, but Boston is going to put it all together against the Kings. The Bruins took the first matchup of these two when they won 4-2 in Los Angeles.

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