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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 2/10/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/9/2024

NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Auston Matthews Toronto

After a full week of hockey, it’s time for another roundup of some league trends and numbers to look at to back or fade and fill your pockets. After a 4-0-win last night, the Bruins have now tied the Canucks atop the league standings at 73 points, with Florida, Vegas, Dallas, and Colorado right behind them at 68 points. The Oilers historic run came to an end this week, halting at 16 games after a dominating win by Vegas. Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon are still in a back-and-forth tilt for the league’s leading points getter, while Sam Reinhart remains on the heels of Auston Matthews as the two vie for the Rocket Richard. Let’s get into some other notable marks around the NHL.

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A Hart-less Road Ahead

We all know the unfortunate circumstances that surround Philadelphia Flyers netminder, Carter Hart. And with his immediate future clouded in uncertainty, it is worth paying attention to for the Flyers remaining games and how it impacts their chances of a run. The Flyers were already in the midst of a Cinderella-like season and have blown away their preseason expectations, but losing their starting goalie is a big loss. Hart had started 26 games and allowed just 2.80 GA/G, which ranked 18th among goalies with at least 20 starts and posted a .906 SV%. Hist last start came on January 20, and since then, the Flyers are 2-4 with Samuel Ersson getting all six starts. With 27 starts under his belt, Ersson has posted less GA/G than Hart at 2.47 and is coming off two consecutive one goal allowed performances against two playoff teams in Florida and Winnipeg. Cal Petersen is also in the goalie room and will likely see more action in Hart’s absence. In three appearances, Petersen has allowed 3.38 GA/G. With the trade deadline within a month, it will be almost a necessity for them to bring in a more polished goalie than Petersen and one that can form a serviceable tandem with Ersson.

Currently, the Flyers are in third place in the Metro Division with 60 points, despite only having a +3 goal-differential on the season. Their odds of making the postseason actually favor the Flyers missing out with a -118 mark, while they have a -108 to make the playoffs. Goaltending isn’t their only need, as their offense averages just 2.87 GF/G, but if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they will need to add another wall in front of the net.

Hellebuyck Jets to Vezina

Maintaining a goalie theme, let’s take a look at the current Vezina Trophy standings and see if there is any real threat to anyone usurping Connor Hellebuyck’s expected award. It has really become a one-man race, as Hellebuyck remains the heavy favorite, but Thatcher Demko and Jeremy Swayman have also posted dominant numbers and at least remain in the conversation, for now. Hellebuyck has allowed just 2.22 GA/G, which is the most of any goalie with at least 20 starts and ranks second among qualifiers (Adin Hill has allowed 1.89 GA/G but has appeared in 17 less games). He has also posted a .923 SV% thus far and has two shutouts on the season. He has been a huge contributor for a Jets team that has remained around the top of the league standings all season and has set them up nicely for the home stretch. Demko has allowed just 2.47 GA/G and has a .918 SV%, while Swayman has allowed 2.36 GA/G and has a .922 SV%. All three goalies play for top seven teams in the league and have all been tremendous factors for their clubs. So, where are the numbers at?

Connor Hellebuyck- -110

Why he wins: The Jets have an average offense, but thanks to Hellebuyck’s dominance they rank 8th in the league in points. His numbers are far better than any goalie around the league.

Why he won’t: Any injury or near perfection from Demko or Swayman.

Thatcher Demko- +290

Why he wins: He improves on his SV%, adds a few more shutouts, and the Jets drop in the standings.

Why he won’t: Vancouver is the most complete team on paper. And though Demko has been incredible, his performance is shaded by the Canucks offense that ranks 2nd in the NHL with 3.71 GF/G.

Jeremy Swayman- +800

Why he won’t: Unfortunately for Swayman, I don’t see him having a shot to win this year despite his numbers being second to only Hellebuyck’s. His 28 starts is significantly less than the other two on this list, as he tandems with Linus Ullmark, and he just won’t get enough time on ice to catch up.

Battle for the Basement

Each year the Presidents’ Trophy is awarded to the team with the most points in the regular season. So, what about the team with the least number of points? While there is no official recognition, and with little significance thanks to the draft lottery, there is no advantage to being named the league’s worst. However, it does signal that there is a lot of work that needs to be done in order to flip the script. As it stands now, the race for the NHL’s basement dweller is between two clubs, the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks. The Sharks started off in a historically bad way but have now overtaken Chicago in the standings and have a three-point lead over them. They are the only two clubs left in the league to not tally 110 goals on the season and are the only two teams with negative goal differentials larger than 41 (SJS -92, CHI -73). Currently, the Blackhawks are favorites to be the league’s laughingstock at -230 odds to finish with the least number of points, while the Sharks are at +210.

League Leaders in Making Money

Each week, I highlight the teams who have performed well ATS, straight-up, and examine either side of the game total. But with money making being a season long endeavor, here are the top three teams in each category for the season as a whole (look at league standings for straight up):

ATS

Vancouver Canucks- Cover %- 67%

Philadelphia Flyers- Cover %- 63%

Montreal Canadiens- Cover %- 62%

Over

Dallas Stars- Over %- 63%

New Jersey Devils- Over %- 63%

Colorado Avalanche- Over %- 60%

Under

Florida Panthers- Under %- 61%

Philadelphia Flyers- Under %- 57%

San Jose Sharks- Under %- 55%

Saturday Free Pick- Dallas Stars @ Montreal Canadien- Over 6.5 +100

Let’s go back to what the numbers just told us. The Stars hit the over in 63% of their contests. Dallas has a lot of offensive capabilities on all their lines, and the Canadiens goaltending has struggled. Jake Oettinger is fully healthy, and the Stars will use the tune up game after splitting a back-to-back with tougher playoff caliber competition. Look for Dallas to roll and score often.

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