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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 1/27/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/26/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Matt Murray Dallas Stars

As Friday dawns before us, it is time to take a look around the National Hockey League and analyze some potential money-making trends and great value picks. Though I will not mention it again, unless they beat the record, the Oilers still haven’t lost and have brought the win streak total to 15 games. The trade deadline is nearing, so we should continue to hear some rumblings from teams like the Nashville Predators and the Detroit Red Wings, who may just be one or two pieces away from being highly competitive once again. As we near the All-Star break, we will look at two teams that provide great future value, we will see who is on the fringe of the playoff bracket and see if the Hart Trophy is all but locked up.

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Lone Star Surprise

No, the Dallas Stars aren’t a surprise team. They are currently third in the Central Division, just one point behind the Avalanche and Jets. The surprise is how deep this team could go in the playoffs and how their roster shapes out to be one of the best in the NHL. As it stands now, Dallas is +300 to win the division, +550 to be the Western Conference champion, and +1000 to hoist Stanley for the first time in over 20 years. No, these odds are not crazy and barely get to four figure marks; the surprise is just how realistic it is for Dallas to cash in on some if not all of those odds. Let’s analyze:

Dallas currently sits 5th in the league standings with 64 points, five points behind league leading Boston and Vancouver and that is with lengthy absences from two of their best players. To start, G Jake Oettinger missed 13 games with a lower body injury leaving Dallas with backup netminder Scott Wedgewood and AHL G Matt Murray to keep them competitive. It worked; Dallas went 8-4-1 over that stretch, the only key piece to note is they allowed four or more goals in all but one of those losses. Oettinger is primed to return to dominance after the All-Star break, with the break giving him a few extra days to return to 100%. Not only did their starting netminder miss 13 games, but their star blueliner Miro Heiskanen just returned from a 10-game absence and even notched a goal in his first game back last night against the Ducks. His return strengthens one of, if not the deepest rosters in the NHL. Dallas has four players over the 40-point mark, three more over the 30-point mark, and five more at or above the 20-point mark. This isn’t wishful thinking; Dallas might just be hockey’s next champion.

Canucks Commanding Respect

Now if you aren’t sold on Dallas and want even better value, look no further than the most complete team (on paper), the Vancouver Canucks. The books still show Vancouver no respect, but in return there is great value for hockey’s best. Currently, the Canucks are at -120 to win the Pacific, but at +850 to win the Western Conference, and +2000 to win the Stanley Cup. Incredible odds for a team that is tied for the league lead with 69 points, ranks 2nd in the NHL in GF/G and ranks 2nd in GA/G.

Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith have come together to showcase one of hockey’s best goalie tandems, as the Canucks are allowing just 2.52 GA/G and have a .918 SV%. They are also part of a roster that features three players in the Top 12 in points, two in the Top 12 in goals, and three in the Top 15 in assists. J.T. Miller leads the team with 64 points followed by Elias Pettersson (61), Quinn Hughes (59), and Brock Boeser (48). They aren’t as deep as the Stars, but this roster does feature eight other players who have eclipsed the 20-point mark. The Canucks have been the leagues best right out of the gate, so why is Vegas still not sold?

NHL Bubble Watch

Now that we have looked at two playoff locks, let’s see who is on the cusp of being mentioned alongside the likes of Dallas and Vancouver. In the Eastern Conference the top two teams on the outside looking in are the New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders, who both sit at 51 points on the year and are four points behind the Red Wings. Right now, the Devils have -160 odds to make the playoffs while the Isles have +235 odds to make it. New York just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to compete with the conference’s top teams and with their goaltending having an off year, I’d say stay away. As for the Devils, their netminding has been an issue all year and between injuries and leaves this club has very little depth. However, you can find Detroit with +100 odds of making the playoffs, which is a great mark for a team who will hold a wild card spot.

As for the Western Conference, the two teams on the cusp are the St. Louis Blues (50) and the Arizona Coyotes (49). The Blues have +285 odds of making the playoffs while the Coyotes sit at +680. The Western Conference isn’t as deep as the Eastern, and the playoff picture has already painted itself. However, if the Blues buy and get hot, they could land in a Wild Card spot, especially if the Kings can’t figure out their struggles.

Hart Heist

Nathan MacKinnon recorded his second four goal night of the season back on Wednesday night, increasing his point total to 82. He currently ranks second behind Nikita Kucherov (83), but MacKinnon has all but locked up the Hart Trophy. He plays for one of the best teams in the NHL and ranks 5th in goals and 1st in assists. At this point, I think the Hart will come down to MacKinnon and Kucherov, but MacKinnon has a lot more firepower around him, most notably Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar who both rank in the Top 12 in points. Currently, MacKinnon is -125 to win the Hart Trophy and he will eventually pull away from Kucherov, making this an easy choice.

Saturday Free Pick- Nashville Predators @ Edmonton Oilers O/U 6.5 – Under 6.5

Edmonton has been winning for the last month, but the under has been incredibly frequent over their winning streak. The under has hit in nine of their last 10 games while also hitting in six of the Predators last 10 games. They did score seven goals in their last matchup in Edmonton, but that was before the resurgence of Stuart Skinner. Edmonton is rolling and Nashville barely averages over 3 GF/G.

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