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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 1/20/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/19/2024

NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Sam Reinhart Florida Panthers

It’s time for another edition of our NHL Friday Roundup series. Before we dive in, let’s go over a few league notes. Edmonton has tied the all-time winning streak by a Canadien team after racking up their 12th win in a row. Nikita Kucherov continues his dominance and added three more points last night, bringing his season total to 75, and the Eastern Conference dominated their cross-conference foes last night, going 7-1 against the Western Conference. Now it’s time to dive into some important and interesting league trends.

As we continue on towards the playoffs, it is important to take a look and see how teams have fared both within their conference and against. It also gives us some favorable (or not) numbers to pay attention to while filling out our bet slips every day. I broke down not only who is the best in intra-conference games, but also those dominating the other side as well.

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Eastern Supremacy

Preluding to an upcoming article on Team Futures, the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins are tied with the best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +450, with Florida sitting behind them at +500.

Within the Eastern Conference, there has been no better team against common conference competition than the league leading Boston Bruins. They have collected 36 points in 26 games against the East, with a 10-3-2 record against Atlantic Division opponents. Carolina is right on their tail as they have 35 of their 53 points against East opponents, with an 8-3-3 record against Metro Division opponents. On the other side, Winnipeg has fared the best against Eastern Conference opponents, going 12-1-3, while the Canucks have gone 13-5-2. Winnipeg has collected points in all 10 of their games against the Atlantic, while the Dallas Stars (6-1) and Nashville Predators (8-2) have dominated Metro Division competition. The worst club against the Eastern Conference is the Chicago Blackhawks, going 5-14 so far this season.

Western Showdown

Looking at the Western Conference, the Edmonton Oilers carry the best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +350, with Colorado at +380 right on their heels.

Now within the Western Conference, the most successful club against common conference opponents is the Colorado Avalanche. They have 41 points in 30 games against Western Conference teams and have been the most successful team in the NHL against the Pacific Division, going 12-3-1 in the 16 matchups. The defending champion Golden Knights have 40 points in 29 games but have found more success against Central Division opponents, going 9-2-2 against them so far. Vancouver (36 points), Dallas (39 points), and Winnipeg (35 points) have all done very well against their intra-conference opponents. Which Eastern Conference team has had the most success against the Western Conference? The Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers have 31 points against the Western Conference and have completely dominated the Central Division, collecting points in nine of their 10 games against them. Tampa Bay is right behind the Flyers with 30 points in 25 games against the Western Conference. Florida (29 points), the Rangers (27 points), and Boston (27 points) have all done well outside of the conference as well.

This mix and match of conference and division success is a good trend to follow to see how teams stack up against each other now for our pockets, and later for the postseason.

Special Ops

Special Teams are a huge part of a team’s success. Look at the Dallas Stars last season. So, as we begin the back half of the season, let’s analyze the best special team units around the NHL and find correlation to their success. Factoring both PK% and PP%, the best unit around the league is the Boston Bruins. They rank 4th in PK% with (84.6%) and are 5th in PP% (27.2%). Tampa Bay is right behind the Bruins, thanks, in large part, to their league leading 31% success rate on the PP. Their PK% ranks 14th. To continue the Eastern Conference trend, Carolina and New York find themselves with the top special team’s units with Carolina ranking 7th in PK% and 4th in PP% and the Rangers ranking 2nd with a 28.7% PP% and 9th in PK%.

Now to analyze some Western Conference teams, the Kings have the 5th rated special teams’ unit thanks to a league leading 86.7% PK%, while ranking 16th in PP%. Dallas and Edmonton find themselves tied for the 6th best rated special teams overall. Dallas’ 84.6% PK% ranks 3rd in the NHL, while their 23% PP% ranks 12th. Edmonton ranks 10th in PK% and 7th in PP%.

Is there a correlation between Special Teams play to overall success?

Boston: Special Teams- #1, Overall - #1 (63 points)

Tampa Bay: Special Teams - #2, Overall - #15 (51 points)

Carolina: Special Teams - #3, Overall - #10 (53 points)

New York Rangers: Special Teams - #4, Overall - T#5 (58 points)

Los Angeles: Special Teams - #5, Overall- #16 (50 points)

Dallas: Special Teams- T#6, Overall- T#7 (58 points)

Edmonton: Special Teams- T#6, Overall- #12 (51 points)

In short, better special teams play means better chance of finding yourself playing more than 82 games.

Reinhart’s Rocket Race

Sam Reinhart is providing incredible value in the Rocket Richard race. As of now, he sits at +550 which is the second-best odds behind heavy favorite, Auston Matthews (-240). Reinhart ranks 2nd in the NHL in goals with 33 tallies in 44 games. Though Matthews does have four more goals in two less games, Reinhart has been terrific all year and has been a dime on the Power Play. If you take a deep dive into the numbers, there is no better shot than Reinhart as his 27.7 S% is the best in the NHL, among qualifying players. And to take it a step further, you would have to go all the way down to 5th ranked Brock Boeser to find someone with more than 20 goals on the season. The Panther’s C has also notched a goal in every game this month. Reinhart defines consistency, and he has a real shot to catch Matthews. The C also sits at +6000 for the Hart, which is tied for the 11th best odds, though he would need to be otherworldly for the next 38 games for a real shot at that trophy.

Saturday Free Pick- Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres / Tampa Bay -120

The Lightning have been on a tear over their last four games, averaging 4.75 GF/G and have allowed only 2.25 in that stretch. Nikita Kucherov continues to do big things for this offense, and the Sabres offense might be a little thin due to some injuries. Buffalo netminders have pitched two shutouts in a row (to the two worst teams in the NHL), so it is just time for an opponent to light up the scoreboard, so why not a hot offensive team? Tampa Bay evens the season series with a win here.

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