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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 12/27/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/27/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Macklin Celebrini San Jose Sharks

With teams returning to action tonight after a brief dead period, instead of going around with league trends, let’s take a look at the Player Award races and who the favorites are. The Hart Trophy has a new name to track, while the Vezina and Norris races seem to be won. The Calder Trophy race has narrowed, and the Rocket Richard may be the most exciting award to follow throughout the back half of the season. Here is where the awards stand as we approach the midway point of the season.

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Hart Trophy

The Hart Trophy race has been an interesting one to follow, especially since the favorite is not one of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, or Nikita Kucherov. It is Kirill Kaprizov who is the current favorite to take home the Hart Trophy as the leagues MVP. Kaprizov is currently tied for fourth in points with 50, tied for second in goals (23), and his 27 assists rank 16th. Kaprizov is second in the NHL with a +/- rating of 21, trailing only his teammate Jake Middleton. He also ranks second amongst all forwards in ice time, getting 22:37 minutes per game and is trailing on MacKinnon (23:03). MacKinnon, Kaprizov, and Mikko Rantanen are the only three forwards recording over 22 minutes on the ice per game. MacKinnon, who has the third best odds, currently leads the NHL in points with 57 on 14 goals and a league leading 43 assists. Sandwiched between Kaprizov and MacKinnon is Connor McDavid, who has revitalized his season after missing some time with an injury. He ranks sixth in the league in points (49) and his 34 assists is tied for the fifth most in the league. The race is far from over, and the guys behind Kaprizov have tremendous value as ‘been there, done that’ contenders, but if Minnesota and Kaprizov continue their hot streak, he will be the MVP of the NHL this season.

  1. Kirill Kaprizov, +115
  2. Connor McDavid, +290
  3. Nathan MacKinnon, +550

Rocket Richard

The Rocket Richard is a much closer race with a lot more than just the three favorites listed. Currently, Leon Draisaitl leads the NHL in goals with 24, but there are six other players with at least 20 goals and there are only five goals separating Draisaitl and the eight place tie of Rantanen and Jake Guentzel. Kaprizov and William Nylander are tied for second, behind Draisaitl, while Sam Rinehart (+800) and Brayden Point (+1000) are tied for fourth. Winnipeg Jets teammates Kyle Connor (+1500) and Mark Scheifele (+2000) are tied for sixth with 21 goals each. Draisaitl is on pace to record a career-high 58 goals. And with the Edmonton depth lacking, he and McDavid are having to produce at a high-level night in and night out. With a lesser supporting cast than a year ago, Draisaitl should continue to be the guy in Edmonton, while Kaprizov and Nylander have more goal scorers around them which could divert some attention away from them throughout the back half of the season.

  1. Leon Draisaitl, +240
  2. Kirill Kaprizov, +320
  3. William Nylander, +750

Calder Trophy

This seems to be Macklin Celebrini’s award already, but Matvei Michkov is doing his best to keep things interesting. Celebrini, even with an extended absence, has 25 points on the season. His 25 points have come in 25 games, compared to Michkov’s 27 points in 33 games and Lane Hutson’s 26 points in 34 games. Based off those numbers, this would not be much of a race if Celebrini did not get injured early in the season. Hutson is forming quite the trio in Montreal with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. However, due to his lack of goal scoring, Celebrini and Michkov are the two guys with a realistic shot at this award. Celebrini and Michkov are tied with 11 goals, with Celebrini leading the way with eight even-strength goals. At a point per game pace, Celebrini is on pace to finish with 70 points, while Michkov is on a 66-point pace. Given the trade deadline, both Celebrini and Michkov will lose some of their supporting cast, which could help or hurt their production, but Celebrini should bring home the Calder Trophy this season.

  1. Macklin Celebrini, -135
  2. Matvei Michkov, +125
  3. Lane Hutson, +900

Norris Trophy

Like the Calder Trophy, the race for the Norris Trophy is a two-horse race. Cale Makar (-130) and Quinn Hughes (+105) are the two leading favorites for this award, with Zach Werenski (+1900), Josh Morrissey (+4200), and Victor Hedman (+7500) rounding out the Top Five. Makar leads all blueliners in points with 45 on 11 goals and 34 assists. Makar ranks ninth in the league in points and fifth in assists. Hughes has 42 points on eight goals and 34 assists. He is second among blueliners in points and is 15th in the NHL. Werenski is further down the list with 35 points, which ranks 29th in the league. Makar has so many weapons around him, it is easy for him to rack up the assists. And with so much attention elsewhere, he does get some good looks to find the back of the net. Makar is going to win his second Norris Trophy this season.

  1. Cale Makar, -130
  2. Quinn Hughes, +105
  3. Zach Werenski, +1900

Vezina Trophy

This trophy race is all but done. Connor Hellebuyck (-400) is the heavy favorite to take home his third Vezina Trophy of his career and his second in as many years. Hellebuyck leads the NHL in GA/G, allowing just 2.07 GA/G while also posting a .927 SV%, which is tied for the league best with Anthony Stolarz. Stolarz, however, has 11 less appearances and has faced 317 less shots than Hellebuyck, further cementing Hellebuyck’s historic season. Hellebuyck’s 28 appearances is tied for the most among goaltenders, and he has a league best 22-5-1 record and leads the league in shutouts with four. Filip Gustavsson has had a phenomenal season and has propelled his Minnesota Wild team into one of the league’s best teams, but his numbers are overshadowed by Hellebuyck’s. Gustavsson is allowing 2.28 GA/G, which ranks fourth in the league, and his .921 SV% is the second highest mark, behind Hellebuyck and Stolarz .927 mark. Unless Hellebuyck gets hurt or falls off the face of the Earth, he has already won this race.

  1. Connor Hellebuyck, -400
  2. Filip Gustavsson, +320
  3. Linus Ullmark, +2400

Jack Adams Award

The coach of the year award seems to be locked up as well. Spencer Carbery is in his second year as the head coach for the Washington Capitals. Last season, Carbery improved on a 80 point total by the Capitals in the 2022/23 season, by securing the second wild card. This season, he is projected to see another big improvement as his team currently is on pace for well over 100 points this season and the Capitals are second in the Metro Division and are fourth in the league standings with 48 points through their first 34 games. John Hynes, like his goaltender, is just being overshadowed by a stout Washington team. Hynes’ Wild team has come out of nowhere and are second in the Central Division with 46 points. However, the Wild only have a +8-goal differential, which could show some luck. Carbery will soon get a highly motivated Alex Ovechkin back and his team could add more weapons at the deadline. Carbery is going to win the Jack Adams this season.

  1. Spencer Carbery (WAS), -185
  2. John Hynes (MIN), +470
  3. Travis Green (OTT), +900

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