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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 12/20/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/20/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Cayden Primeau Montreal Canadiens

The hockey season is quickly approaching the halfway point on the season and division races are heating up. Teams are now in a freeze period with no transactions to be made over the next few days, after that period is up, you can expect some trade rumors really picking up steam. With those rumors on deck, let’s take a look at some home and away betting trends as well as the race to the basement with one team carrying sneaky good value. Another of those teams in the race for last place are the Buffalo Sabres who have lost 11 straight and may be on the verge of a roster overhaul. Let’s take a look at what’s going on around the league.

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Home/Road Betting Trends

Every other week we look at which teams frequent either side of the game total. Now let’s take a look at who has been doing it on either side at home and on the road.

Home O/U

The Columbus Blue Jackets lead the NHL in home overs as they have hit the over in 12 of their 16 home games this season. Home ice has been incredibly friendly to the Blue Jackets as they are 9-4-3 overall at home and have been averaging 3.94 GF/G which is much higher than their 3.24 GF/G season average. The over has hit in eight of their last 10 home games. On top of their strong offense at home, the Blue Jackets have had some big-time goalie issues as well as they are allowing 3.58 GA/G on the season on a .882 SV%. Right behind Columbus are the Colorado Avalanche who have hit the over in 11 of their 16 home games this season. Colorado is not scoring as much at home, compared to the Blue Jackets, as their home overs have more to do with their poor goaltending from early on in the season. The Avalanche have allowed 3.81 GA/G at home this season, if you pair that with their 3.26 GF/G average, it is easy to see why the over hits. However, the over has hit in just one of Colorado’s last four home games which could indicate their new goaltenders could change their home over trajectory. As for the most home under performances, the Toronto Maple Leafs have seen the south side of the game total in 13 of their 18 home games (72.2%) which leads the NHL. Like Columbus, Toronto has been far better on home ice this season as they are 14-4 whilst in Toronto. They have allowed just 2.0 GA/G at home and have two shutouts on the year.

Road O/U

The Florida Panthers lead the NHL in road overs with 12, but the Montreal Canadiens actually have the best road Over% in the league as they have seen the over hit in nine of their 13 road games this season. The over has an established correlation with their performance as they are 3-9-1 overall while on the road. The Canadiens have allowed 4.31 GA/G on the road this season with a lot of that thanks to backup netminder Cayden Primeau who has allowed 25 goals in his six starts this season. In addition to their awful road goaltending, Montreal has been averaging 3.15 GF/G on the road which is higher than their 2.81 GF/G average. As for the road under performances, the Nashville Predators lead the NHL with a road Under% of 76.5% as the under has hit in 13 of their 17 road games. The Predators have scored just 31 goals through their first 17 road games which is good for an abysmal 1.82 GF/G mark. Nashville has had issues with offense all season long, so it is no wonder to see they are struggling big time away from home. On the heels of the Predators are the Chicago Blackhawks who have seen the under hit in 12 of their 18 road games this season, the second most in the league. The Blackhawks are averaging just 2.28 GF/G on the road this season which is below their season total average on the year. The offense has been missing all season for the Blackhawks and Predators as the two teams are averaging a combined 2.05 GF/G on the road and the under has hit in 71.4% of their road games.

Buffalo Blues

After some playoff expectations being floated around for the Buffalo Sabres during the offseason, they have seemingly thrown in the towel on the season already. Buffalo has lost 11 straight games and are now in last place in the Eastern Conference with just 26 points. They have a -21-goal differential over their last 11 games and have been terrible in all aspects. Their offense has slowed down and has averaged just 2.18 GF/G while also being shutout twice over this cold stretch. Their goaltending hasn’t been good either as they are allowing 4.09 GA/G. On the season, Buffalo ranks in the lower half of the league and scoring and just 26th in goaltending. Their special teams play has been lacking as well with just a 13.8 PP% (30th) and a 77.4% PK% (22nd). The owner has made himself visible to the team and while it was to instill confidence in his current regime, there are now some rumors that budding star Dylan Cozens may be on the move as well. Tage Thompson is the only Sabres player to record double-digit goals this season and he and Alex Tuch are tied for the team lead in points with 25. Offensive depth has been a big issue for Buffalo this season and their goaltending hasn’t done much better with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen having some early season struggles as he has posted a lowly .896 SV% and ranks 40th in GA/G this season. As it stands now the Sabres have +900 odds to make the playoffs and are in the conversation for potentially the worst record in the NHL.

Worst Record Race

With teams nearing 35 games on the season, the race to the basement is in full swing. The Nashville Predators are currently in last place in the league standings with just 25 points. The Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres are just ahead of Nashville with 26 points, the Montreal Canadiens and San Jose Sharks have 27 points, and the Anaheim Ducks have 28. Despite their improvements from last season (albeit minimal) the Sharks are the heavy favorites to end the year with the worst record with +115 odds. Chicago (+490), Anaheim (+600), and Montreal (+700) follow, with Buffalo (+1900) and Nashville (+3000) further down the list. First and foremost, you have to take a look at Nashville at +3000. Throw some couch change on it, but the Predators are terrible this season and are closer to selling at the deadline and really throwing the towel in on the season. Buffalo is another potential seller, but Nashville spent a lot of money this offseason and the experiment hasn’t been working and a rebuild could be in order. San Jose has the worst goalie tandem in the league, and they are bound to ship off any veteran offensive player that’s making an impact so they will likely take a huge step back as well. To me, the Predators have some incredible value here to end with the worst record in the league.

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