Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 12/13/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/13/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Macklin Celebrini San Jose Sharks

As we enter a great weekend of hockey, it is time to look at some notes and trends around the league. The Norris and Calder Trophy awards are shaping up to be just a two-horse race, as the top two contenders, in each awards race, are creating quite a gap between themselves and the rest of the field. We also have two bubble teams, one from each conference, that are looking to defy their current odds and crack the postseason picture. With the season approaching the 30 game mark, now is a good time for us to see who has been performing well against the spread at home and on the road.

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Runaway Races

At this point in the season, we have two award races that are beginning to seemingly conclude with many months of the season left. Right now, the Calder Trophy and Norris Trophy race favorites are beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the pack and are becoming more and more likely to take home the award with each game. Both races also include only two legitimate contenders for the award (barring injury), as the distance between second and third is much larger than that of first to second. As it stands now, Matvei Michkov has a commanding lead in the Calder Trophy race. Macklin Celebrini, who missed extended time earlier this season, is behind Michkov with Lane Hutson and Logan Stankoven rounding out the Top Four. Michkov (-195) leads the group of rookies in points (27) and goals (11) and his 16 assists ranks behind just Hutson’s 19. He also has the highest +/- rating amongst the group (+5). Michkov is second on the Flyers in points and is a big reason as to why they are sitting in the final wild card spot. As for the Norris Trophy, Cale Makar is the heavy favorite to win this award, with Quinn Hughes the only other contender in the picture. Makar’s current odds are -160 followed by Hughes (+150), Zach Werenski (+1500), and Josh Morrissey (+3000). Makar leads all blueliners in points with 36, is tied for the position lead in assists with 27 (tied with Hughes) and is second amongst the position group in goals scored with nine, one behind Werenski. Hughes is only two points behind Makar and is the team leader in points, but Makar is making more of a difference on defense with 16 more blocks. Makar is also fifth in the league in takeaways, while he also has 23 more hits than Hughes. There are still over 50 games to be played on the season, but these two races might be determined well before the end of the season.

Bubble Update

New York Islanders: 12-12-7 (31 points), To Make Playoffs: +215

The Islanders have continued to pull away from the ever so mediocre state of the franchise. They have won three of their last four games and are fifth in the Metro Division standings and just one point out of the wild card spots. Offense has been hard to come by for the Islanders, as they are 26th in scoring, averaging just 2.61 GF/G. They have the worst special teams play in the league, ranking 31st in PP% (12.8%) and are last in PK% (65.2%). If that wasn’t enough, they rank just 15th in GA/G. Their offseason addition of Anthony Duclair has not panned out for them, as he has played in just five games this season because of an injury and Mathew Barzal has been limited to just 10 games also due to injury. It is possible to think that the offense gets a big boost when those two return, but they will need more. The Islanders are well positioned financially to make some moves before the Trade Deadline, but they need to get on the phones sooner than later to get back into the playoff picture. With Sorokin in the net, the Islanders have an anchor that could make them competitive in the playoffs; they just have to get there.

Make the Playoffs: Yes

Utah Hockey Club: 13-11-5 (31 points), To Make Playoffs: +172

Utah has had a decent start to their inaugural season. They have gone 5-2-1 over their last eight games and are just three points out of the final wild card spot. The Hockey Club ranks in the middle of the pack in both scoring and goals allowed as they are averaging 3.0 GF/G and are allowing 2.9 GA/G. The depth has been there for Utah, but they lack star power to really elevate their play and climb the league standings. Dylan Guenther leads the team with 28 points and is the only member of the team to tally double-digit goals (12). Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley trail Guenther in points with 26 and 24, respectively, while Nick Schmaltz (22) and Mikhail Sergachev (20) are the other members of the Utah team to reach the 20-point mark. As for their goaltending, it has been a tale of two goalies. Karel Vejmelka has been incredible in the crease for Utah, as he has allowed just 2.36 GA/G and has a .917 SV%. However, he is just 5-7-2 on the year as his offense is only averaging 2.19 GF/G when Vejmelka is the goalie. Connor Ingram on the other hand has struggled this season and is allowing 3.61 GA/G with a lowly .871 SV%. Unfortunately, with the lack of star power and the shaky goaltending group, I do not see Utah getting a wild card spot this season.

Make the Playoffs: No

Home/Road Betting Trends

Every other week we look at the hottest and coldest teams ATS. Now let’s take a look at who has been doing well, or not, at home and on the road.

Home ATS Performance

The Dallas Stars have been black and white this season depending on where their games have been. At home, they are the best cover team in the league, as they have covered 71.4% of their home games. Their performance away from home has been a different story. The Stars are coming off a surprising blowout loss to Nashville on home ice, but they had covered their last four home games before then. At American Airlines Center the Stars have a +25-goal differential through their first 13 true home games this season. The Boston Bruins are a bit of a different story. They have covered just four of their 17 home games this season. While they are normally the favorites at home, they have a -2-goal differential at home this season and they have covered just one of their last five home games.

Road ATS Performance

Washington has been killing it this year, and their road performance is the best in the league. They have gone 12-2 on the road overall and have covered 11 of those 14 games. Before their last game, the Capitals had covered in nine straight road games. The Capitals have a +26-goal differential on the road this season, and five of their next eight games will be on the road. As for the worst road cover team, it is none other than the league leader in home covers, the Dallas Stars. Dallas has covered in just 21.4% of their road games this season. The Stars have really struggled on the road as of late as they are just 1-4 on the road overall in their last five road games with a -7-goal differential. Luckily for the Stars, they play eight of their next 10 games at home.

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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 12/13/2024

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